"FL, VA, and NC are Romney for sure. We are no longer polling there."

Facts have a liberal bias.

And that’s a fact.

To clear up that ambiguity, I have no idea if Obama’s campaign is giving up on Florida. I was merely sharing some interesting information I’d run across.

A liberal blog commenter said this about the previously cited article:

I hadn’t heard anything about the past of the person making this claim, or about any “debunking,” but then, I hadn’t heard about this at all until it was brought up in this thread. If anyone can fill in any gaps, feel free.

The source isn’t credible enough to keep a job at Fox. Wow.

Pretty much typical though.

Obama was campaigning in Virginia earlier today - that’s where he made his ‘Romnesia’ speech. I’d say that’s a sufficient debunking of any claim that his campaign has pulled out of Virginia.

I’m looking forward to seeing the egg on their face in about 18 days.

Looking at the RCP map at this time, here are my thoughts on the electoral math:

Let’s assume Romney & Obama each win the states currently colored for them (not a given by any means, of course) and focus on the toss-up states, here are Romney’s chances. He has to win FL, VA, & CO, in all of which he is currently favored by very narrow margins, and then pick off some states in BO is currently the narrow favorite. His two most likely scenarios are 1) win Ohio, and 2) win any two of IA, NV & WI. (If he wins IA & NV, he wins in the House of Representatives.)

BO is obviously the favorite at this point, but it’s close enough to make this kind of stuff interesting.

I could do without the high level of interest I’m currently suffering…

My heart can’t take all of this interest!

I thought this article was interesting, and is relevant to this thread. It says

Might be a smart strategy, hopefully not a winning one.

Take this for what it’s worth, but I’ve heard that Obama’s team has also stopped polling VA. All the polls I’ve seen appear to be within the margin of error.

Don’t these two sentences contradict each other? Or do you take it as evidence that Obama’s internal polls show something different?

The person who told me Obama’s team had stopped polling VA implied they were conceding the state. I’m wondering why they would do that if the polls are within the margin of error.

Leaving aside the issue of whether this info is true altogether, I don’t think it implies that they are “conceding the state” in the sense of “we will definitely lose here”. It just means “based on our current assessment of the situation our resources are better deployed elsewhere”.

It’s possible that the Obama campaign would concede Florida at some point since it’s an expensive state they don’t really need and they appear to be a point or two down. I think it’s vanishingly unlikely they would concede Virginia. It’s their leading “Plan B” if they lose Ohio and they have every chance of winning it. Currently 538 gives them a 51% chance.

Right now the most likely path to victory for Obama goes through Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin. There are four additional buffer states which they could reasonably hope to win: Iowa, Virginia, Colorado and NH. I could see them conceding Florida and focusing on these 7 but I am pretty certain they won't concede any of the 7. In fact my hunch is they won't concede Florida either.

So.

This did not work out for him.

Yeppers. :slight_smile:

Fun bit of trivia:

David Paleologos is the Director of that Suffolk University Political Research Center. His name literally means “old reason” or “old reasoning”, “old ideas”

Paleo=old
Logos=thought, reckoning, gather, recount. :smiley:

Where is adaher? He logged in yesterday in the wee hours of the morning… but didn’t post anything.