That, apparently, is what the Suffolk University Political Research Center thinks.
That’s a pretty confident assessment to make. Is this borne out by any other polls in those states?
No, that is pretty weird. Their own polls don’t even show that. Something smells fishy.
Seems odd to me. Real Clear Politics reports that Virginia is basically tied, and Suffolk’s last poll there (from almost three weeks ago) had Obama up by 2. Romney seems in control in North Carolina, but I’m not sure I’d call it over. Florida is tied with Suffolk’s last poll from ten days ago showing Obama leading by 3.
So, I’m puzzled.
I don’t even see a Suffolk poll for North Carolina this year.
I’m personally convinced that they are now polling only those people who are either too poor or too old to have caller ID or who are so desperately lonely that they’ll pick up the phone no matter who is calling. So, maybe they’ve stopped polling because no one is answering their phones any more. Too bad they can’t do a poll about who is actually still answering their phone these days.
That Suffolk statement seemed bizarre to me as well. The latest two polls from VA are R+1 from Rasmussen on the 4th and O+3 from Public Policy Polling on the 7th. Whatever you might think about either of those firms, I can’t believe you’d get “Total blow-out not worth discussing” out of it.
I’d suggest to Republican voters in those states that it’s all over, and Romney is absolutely sure to win. Really, you don’t even need to go and vote, it is a foregone conclusion. Just stay home, watch the TV and get ready to celebrate!
While their original statement doesn’t make a lot of sense, in a broader sense polling those three state is somewhat unproductive. Because if Romney doesn’t win all three he’s well and truly fucked (although I guess there are some worlds in which he loses VA but still wins). So why not poll the states that are likely to matter - OH, NV, NH, IA, maybe WI.
I was called for a Suffolk poll Sunday. How can they still be polling in NY (which, let’s face it, is a done deal) and not be polling in Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina?
Sure they can, but it would have to be a door-to-door poll – more expensive to conduct.
It could be based on bad data or this could be cover for trimming some expenses, but it’s confusing regardless.
But why not release the data.
[QUOTE=Jas09]
While their original statement doesn’t make a lot of sense, in a broader sense polling those three state is somewhat unproductive. Because if Romney doesn’t win all three he’s well and truly fucked (although I guess there are some worlds in which he loses VA but still wins). So why not poll the states that are likely to matter - OH, NV, NH, IA, maybe WI.
[/QUOTE]
Ohio is in that bucket too. Anyway, even assuming that’s what they are doing, why would an academic pollster “call it” when their own data points in the other direction? Even if their polling had had Romney up by 3 (rather than Obama) in Florida, it would still be within the margin of error and thus too close to call.
Yes, that’s why he listed it first. 
Geez, it appears they hardly do any state-wide polling.
That would be a seriously hazardous job in a swing state. I would LOVE to have a pollster show up at my gate… so much pent up frustration that I could finally ‘release’.
I think the first thing I’d do is tie them up with my telephone right next to their ear and force them to answer every single time the phone rings and to answer all those stupid push polls. Then at night, I’d scoot them into the living room and make them watch the local programming that is now about 50% political ads, followed by another full day of 8am to 10pm (yup, 10pm) of more phone calls. I’d keep it up until the cops came and hauled me away because if I get a jury of my peers… they will all be jealous that I managed to get back at one of them.
Is it an attempt at creating news, possibly? Get the buzz out there that one polling site is just straight-up calling it for Romney and thereby swing voters’ minds that way?
I’d imagine doing so would basically ruin their reputation as a polling site, but it might work for partisan gain.
Sounds like they are cutting their polling budget and seeing if they can get publicity for it without saying that’s what they are doing.
I read somewhere that we have about half the polling this year we had in 2008 due to nearly everyone cutting back on polling budgets.
Nope, nope, it means a Romney landslide win. Just sit back and enjoy. No need to line up and waste valuable time at the polls.
Or cluttering up the SDMB constantly shilling in every election thread.