Since I’m asking for opinions, I think this is the correct forum. Mods, please move if not.
Over Memorial Day, SWMBO and I visited Goliad, Presidio La Bahia and the site of the Battle of Coleto Creek. In rehashing the history, we came up with a couple of interesting what-ifs?
Here’s the actual timeline of what happened:
Mid-Feb., 1836 – Fannin arrives in Goliad and occupies Presidio La Bahia, renaming it Fort Defiance
Feb. 23 - the siege of the Alamo begins
Feb. 28 – Fannin receives orders to reinforce Travis at the Alamo. He sets up, but has to return to Goliad because of insufficient supplies and means of transport.
Mar. 2 - Texas declares independence
Mar. 6 - The Alamo falls
Mar. 10 – Fannin dispatches Captain King and 28 men to Refugio to remove civilians from the path of the approaching Mexican forces.
Mar. 12 – Fannin receives word that King is besieged in the mission at Refugio and send Col. Ward with 120 men to support him.
Mar. 14 – Fannin receives orders from Houston to abandon Goliad and fall back to Victoria. He delays, trying to contact King and Ward
Mar. 18 – Fannin leaves Goliad, headed toward Victoria. After an 8 mile march, they are trapped on open ground, about a mile from the treeline of Coleta Creek, and surrounded by the forces of Gen. Jose de Urrea.
Mar. 20 – Fannin surrenders to Urrea with the full expectation that he and his men would be treated as prisoners of war. They are returned to La Bahia and held captive. The remaining troops from King and Ward’s commands that had been taken prisoner are also brought to La Bahia.
Mar. 26 – Orders arrive from Santa Anna stating that the men were to be treated as pirates
Mar. 27 – 330 men are marched out in three separate groups and shot. Fannin is executed within the walls of La Bahia.
Now, here are two possible alternatives.
- Fannin obeys Houston’s order and pulls out on Mar. 14, basically throwing King and Ward to the wolves. He successfully reaches Victoria, joins the manpower there, improves the defensive positions and when Urrea arrives (say on Mar. 20), we have the battle of Victoria.
- Fannin does not obey Houston’s order and remains in La Bahia, which was an excellent defensive position. Urrea engages him there and we have the battle of La Bahia.
In both cases, we think that the Mexicans would have sent word to Santa Anna about the engagements. Santa Anna would then have diverted from his march and come back to Victoria or Goliad. Houston rounds up his troops and comes after him to reinforce Fannin and attacks Santa Anna from the rear.
So instead of the Battle of San Jacinto on Apr. 21, we have the Battle of Victoria or La Bahia, somewhere around Mar. 18 – 20 or so. Do we win? In scenario 1, I think we have do. In 2, I’m not so sure, because of the problem that Fannin was already having with supplies. His defensive posture is excellent, but chow and gunpowder is an issue.
What say you?