As a technology advances, it becomes cheaper. TVs and phones, IIRC, at some point were exclusive and not affordable to the general public. Is it not the same with nuclear technology?
At some point, will you be able to acquire some sort of nuclear weapon for millions of dollars, as opposed to billions? When will we reach this point?
If nuclear weapons become that cheap, won’t terrorists be able to easily nuke some city in the United States or any other nation?
Yes.
Pleasant dreams.
Um, well, it works like this…
There are a few fundamental differences between a functional nuclear fission device and a telephone.
The reason a telephone gets so cheap is mass production and availability of materials.
The reason a nuclear bomb is so expensive is because the equipment for making one is prohibitively expensive (so expensive that one of the key points of intelligence on who has nukes is who has purchased this kind of equipment) and hard to produce in itself, and it serves a very limited purpose.
On top of that, you have the additional problem of the material. Getting any of it is not easy. Refining weapons-quality from that stuff is not easy. Refining enough weapons-quality grade material for a large enough bomb is not easy. All of the above three activities are also monitored internationally.
Don’t make the mistake of assuming that some underground guys who have a basement in Iran are going to be able to even come CLOSE to producing one, even if they had detailed instructions (which is why the instructions aren’t really classified info). If they somehow got access to the machinery (not like it is produced by very many people, now is it?), the international intelligence agencies would be knocking on their doors before FedEx delivered it to them.
Having all of the above become mass-produced and commonly available will mean that the world is pretty fucked anyway.
What you DO have to worry about is nations who officially have nuclear weapons either selling or “losing” them. I’m mostly worried about Pakistan. Not exactly the most stable area on the planet. Most people don’t trust Russia, with some good reason.
Seems real obvious that brother bin laden is gathering them from Pakistan, North Korea, Ukrane, etc. Using Spain as a model, he’ll set of 10 of them at the same time in different American cities.
I wonder what President Kerry will do about it.
Before the Japanese were taken hostage in Iraq the other day/week, I knew it was only a matter of time.
It’s only a matter of time before someone pulls off a terror stunt here in Tokyo. Hey, it’s even happened already (Aum Shinrikyou).
And it’s only a matter of time before nuclear terrorism happens. It might be tomorrow, it might be 20 years from now.
I just hope it isn’t the US. Or Japan. It could be anywhere. Not that I would wish that on anyone! Once it happens, you’re going to see the world turn into a very bad place. Basically, the planet will go totalitarian. Why? Because that level of control will at last be worth it. Sad, sad…
Brazil to US: Keep Your Eyes Off Our Nukes
Kerry? He could do worse than follow Madeleine Albright’s advice:
statement from Madeleine K. Albright to the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States
And it looks as if he will:
John Kerry’s Comprehensive Plan to Fight Terrorism
Which is a hell of a lot better than the lip service Bush has given the program:
Bush Stresses Importance of Nunn-Lugar Programs but Cuts Funds in 2005 Budget Request
>Kerry? He could do worse than follow Madeleine Albright’s advice:
[…lots of free advice…]
Yeah. I agree. He’s not going to do zip; before or after.
Years ago I read the Foundation series by Isaac Asimov. The Empire is failing because any initiative to preserve it will make the Emporer suspicious. So no one does anything.
Originally from jsleek
Election year puffery of no significance one way or the other.
Yes, a country with adequate technology will provide one, two, five or seven van sized nuclear device to one or more terrorist groups while imagining they retain plausible deniability, some time in the next 10-15 years.
Yes, I suspect that the terrorists will probably set off nuclear devices in a number of cities, not necessarily all of them located in the US, some time in the next 5-15 years. ( I would take particular care to stay away from Washington DC and New York).
I would also stay away from the vicinity of the Vatican.
My guess is that we’ll have a major biological or chemical incident before we have a major nuclear incident. Once you have the stuff (admittedly hard to get and getting harder, but the same applies to nuclear material) it’s so much easier to transport and work with.
Probably not very long. Nukes came out in 1945, now its 59 years later and at least 9 countries have them, and Iraq and Libya came close. Iran is also trying to develop them, as well as several other countries. So technically you can’t avoid it, its already happened.
The problem with this analogy lies in the fact that producing nuclear weapons is not comparable to producing television sets. First off, consider the components required. The raw materials required to produce nuclear bombs are extremely difficult to get a hold of because they are so rare. Furthermore, the facilities required for storage and manufacture are exceedingly resource-intensive. So, your average terrorist group would probably be in no position to manufacture a nuclear weapon himself.
What is a very likely danger is that individual nations would sell weapons they manufacture to terrorists. Pakistan, for instance, has admitted to helping Libya and North Korea in terms of weapons design. (Specifically, IIRC, with regard to the uranium enrichment process, but don’t take my word for it). In effect, this still means that, yes, terrorists could bomb someplace with a nuclear weapon in the future.
(I think it is far more likely that terrorists will use biochemical weapons in the future. Much more easily accessible, a lot cheaper to produce, and very easily disseminated. Less hassle, big results. One order of Sarin nerve gas, with a side of anthrax, anyone?)
Or what Zagadka said. How did that get by me? :o
Nerve gas and anthrax are ok, but their results have been disappointing. Were I bin Laden, I’d skip the hassle and cut a deal with North Korea.
“Kim, old buddy. I know you’re over stocked with sarin, but I want a dozen atomics. How about ten atomic bombs and two tons of sarin. We don’t need the gas, but we can wholesale it to Hamas.”
If you think that’s bad, wait till teenagers start building fusion weapons in there garages.
Okay, the panic engendered by this thread in me notwithstanding, this quote begs the question, how should we let this possibility/probability affect our daily lives? Should I NOT take a job in NYC solely because of nuclear terror fears (and not, say, because it’s a crowded, sometimes dirty and dangerous, expensive city)? Should I NOT follow my dream of going into politics (non-existent, just used as an example) because I don’t want to be in ground zero when bin Laden orders the entire city to be nuked? Should I just move to the Midwest?
And how much good would that do anyway, considering the economic, political, and emotional importance of those two cities? How would I avoid being affected by such an event? The quoted poster seems to be suggesting that the U.S. is doomed to disintegration by constant nuclear attack (or by the fear created by even that “single” event) - if that’s true, then the only options are either to move to another country (risky, as long as you’re in the evil West), or just keep on living daily life, since there’s nothing I personally can do about this either way.
BTW, I agree that the phone/nuke analogy doesn’t hold up. In these times, you’d certainly hear if it were advancing as fast as cel phone tech, but it seems to remain as difficult as ever.
If it’s a matter of “when, not if” (and I have to admit that nothing is guarenteed NOT to happen), how large a scale do you think is practical? Just one, with a significant gap until the next one? Fifteen all at once (difficult for me to believe)? And how long from now?
Probably try to figure out some way to impose sanctions on the terrorists. :rolleyes:
Hey SA did you even bother reading the thread before posting your lame comment? Try it, you might learn something.
Okay, I’ll bite…what?