USGS has just upgraded Kilauea to orange/watch status. Nearly 200 earthquakes in the last two days and 38 in the last two hours.
Time to keep an eye on the live cam.
I came in here to post that! Of late, Pele has been an incredible tease - earthquakes (all along a line south of the Halema’uma’u crater) will increase to 60-90 a day … then subside again.
But now it is up to over 200 quakes in the area over the past 24 hours, and rising. Everyone is watching the live cam!
We’ll see. Fingers crossed, but Pele can be quite fickle.
Well, dang it … the experts are now predicting this will only be an intrusion, not an eruption. The February 1 notice says, “Based on past historical activity, this event is much more likely to continue as an intrusion.”
Damn you, Pele!
Bravely spoken.
Ok Pele, you’re going to have to up your game…
Mt. Etna is blowing smoke rings.
Okay, Pele has been quite the tease lately - I can’t count how many times the earthquakes have dramatically risen in number and the deformation has increased … only for it to all go away. Each time I have thought about posting that it may be time to start monitoring activity, I’ve decided not to post, which has turned out to be the correct choice, because everything quiets down without an eruption.
But the advisory level has just gone from yellow to orange and USGS, while still reserving judgment, seems to think an eruption MAY be coming this time:
Kīlauea is not erupting. Increased earthquake activity and ground deformation at Kīlauea’s summit began at approximately 12:00 p.m. HST on June 2, 2024, indicating the likely movement of magma in the subsurface. Rates of seismicity and deformation increased further after 5:00 p.m. HST. At this time, it is not possible to say with certainty if this activity will lead to an eruption – the activity may remain below ground. However, an eruption in Kīlauea’s summit region within Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park is one potential outcome.
Accordingly, the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) is raising the Volcano Alert Level for ground-based hazards from ADVISORY to WATCH and the Aviation Color Code from YELLOW to ORANGE.
So maybe, MAYBE something will happen soon.
Good links:
Webcam on Halema’uma’u crater: https://www.youtube.com/usgs/live
USGS updates: Kīlauea - Volcano Updates | U.S. Geological Survey (Although I’m still seeing older text when I link, not the latest update quoted above, which I received as an email).
All last week, there had only been one or two small quakes every couple of hours. I check in this morning, and BAM! she’s really picked up the pace.
USGS has Kilauea upgraded to Warning/Red status.
Is it possible that i saw someone walking across the crater at 04:00 local
time ?
When i saw the latest update to this post, i went to the live feed.
As it was 04:00, it was a black screen, but then i saw a small light on the
left of the screen, halfway down. It moved slowly across the screen to the right,
disappearing occasionally. There was no beam, so probably not a torch/flashlight.
Maybe a headband light.
Spooky.
I’m looking at that now. Whatever it is, it’s very bright.
I took a couple of screenshots :-
It seems to be gone now. First light is in about an hour. We should see something by then.
Maybe Carol, taking an offering to Pele.
The crater camera (V1cam) is looking South-west right now. I’ve pointed out which cam that is here:
The glow returned just before the sun was fully up from the circled spot. I was too slow to capture the glow.
I think it may be erupting, just in an inconvenient spot to look at right now.
Ah… that’s a different view from last time i looked at that webcam.
The light was obviously walking along the rim of the crater.
So apparently it started erupting around 12:30am local time - sadly, I was asleep and didn’t wake up to look. The info says it is erupting now, and they’ve moved the camera, but I don’t see anything.
The last time it erupted at the same spot I guess the eruption lasted 6 hours, so who knows, maybe its already over.
There is a plume that I can see from the A1cam, just above the trees. The KOcam (the furthest east camera on my screen shot above) looks west, and is obscured by either steam or smoke. So unless they turn one of the camera on the west side of the crater around, we may not see anything.
@Maus_Magill Could you give a link to the A1 camera? I can’t find it even after a systematic review of all the webcams available from this list. Thanks!
Thanks - that’s the one I have bookmarked and usually look at. I just didn’t know that’s “A1.” (It’s not in the link anywhere, is it?)