Since some of you folks just might have an interest in the increasing events, I’ll try any answer questions. I don’t work for the USGS, but another federal agency involved (we like to think it’s “our” volcano, so to speak.). At present I play a minor role in the events, however, I work directly with many of the movers and shakers (pun intended) and might be able to offer some insight behind the sensationalist news headlines soon to appear.
I will not be able to respond until evening every night. In the mean time, fire away (unless you are Boyo Jim or Astro)
Wow. I remember when it erupted in ’80 – I was five years old. We went hiking later and filled up film canisters with ash, and that ash was REALLY far away from the mountain itself. I’ve since been hiking on Mount St. Helens many times, and visited the little center devoted to that eruption. It’s really interesting that it’s ramping up activity again.
Doyou think it’s going to blow? If yes, sometime within a month? A year? Tomorrow? I guess I’m asking how sure the scientific community is when it comes to predicting something so large and, to my mind, unpredictable.
Also, could the small 'quakes signify anything else? Is there a good chance the mountain is just “settling” or something?
I noticed that theis seismic activity started up at Mt. St. Helens, them BOOM! An earthquake in California. I’ve noticed over the years that seismic events in the “ring of fire” seem to occur in clusters, yet I’ve never once heard anyone say “Yes, they are connected” Are they connected?
You look like a prophet. Less than 1 hour after you posted there was another 5.0 magnitude quake in California, on a different fault than the Parkfield(White Wolf rather than San Andreas)quake. Hurricanes on the East coast quakes and volcanos on the West. ???
Well, like I said, these seem to me to come in clusters, but I’ve never heard anybody cop to it. I took a cursory glance at a couple of “Learn about Earthquakes” sites and there’s nothing I can tell at a glance.
They can’t not have studied this somewhere along the line.
Hopefully, Duckster didn’t get blown away and can shed a bit of light…
Yes, you can! The Forest Service cancelled all overnight backcountry permits within the Mt. Margaret backcountry to the north of Mount St. Helens. The reason given is that if an event occurs or intensifies on Mount St. Helens, it would be impossible to locate and get those folks to safety. You can still day-hike within the Mt. Margaret area but you cannot stay overnight.
All other campgrounds, if they are still open for business, are open and unaffected by Mount St. Helens.
If I had answered your question this morning, I would have had my doubts. However, after the USGS announced the lava dome within the crater is moving, I’ve changed my mind. Later this morning the USGS raised the alert status to a Level II.
The answer to your question appears to be yes. The intensity is another issue. Tonight the USGS said the possibility for a small to modratre event is very likely.
Longtime northwesterner here (age 10 when 1980 eruption happened: vivid memory of enormous ash plume on horizon), with a geologist grandfather whose knowledge partly rubbed off. So I’m talkin’ out of school a bit, but what the hell.
If it does “blow,” it won’t be anything like 1980. Atmospheric surveys done by helicopter above the summit show none of the gases that would be expected if deep magma were rising under the mountain in a pre-eruption buildup. If we get something, it’s likely to be a “pop” rather than a “boom,” at least according to current data. You wouldn’t want to be in the crater or on the actual slopes of the mountain if that happens, but you could probably observe safely from Johnson Ridge.
Things could change, of course. That’s what makes this stuff so interesting: how little we really understand it all.
The USGS was asked this specific question. The answer was “they don’t think so,” but you must remember the Cascade Range of volcanos are all caused the same subduction of the San Juan de Fuca plate under the North American plate.
As late as last week, all eyes were on the South Sister of the Three Sisters volcano in central Oregon. The Three Sisters have been rising an inch a year for the past ten years. However, while that is a quite a bit, in 1980 Mount St. Helens was expanding five feet a day prior to the eruption.
Yes. But I’ll settle for the Johnston Ridge Observatory. Unfortunately, I cannot justify a business need to get there during working hours so I’ll probably be one of quite a few folks up there this weekend.
Cervaise is quite correct. We really don’t understand it all.
Case in point. Seismographs located on Mt. Rainier and Mt. Hood are now recording the earthquakes occurring on Mount St. Helens. This is a significant change in intensity within the last few hours.
Can you seriously just go hiking and camping around there? When I visited a few years ago with a bunch of geologists-in-training (we climbed the mountain and explored around the dome, and it was awesome) our USGS guide told us the area was off-limits and protected. Except for geologists-in-training, I suppose…
You can hike the loop trail around Mount St. Helens
Beyond the immediate vicinity of the volcano are literally hundreds of trails, camping areas (formal and backcountry), visitor centers, roads, etc., to occupy yourself. However, with the seismic activity ramping up, the Monument Manager has closed the volcano to all climbing and parts of the loop trail are closed.
You cannot enter the crater. Access to the crater is restricted to scientists and research groups. That you managed to get into the crater is probably a one-in-a-lifetime event. I’m jealous beyond belief.
