Fork Hillary 3: The Final Forking

Good advice. That’s my anniversary. (Marks it on calendar.)

I remember Clinton offered the same interpretation of the 12th Amendment in 2004. He said a “reasonable reading” barred him from being VP.

Barring a Supreme Court case, it’s not that clear cut. Didn’t we address this question upteen times on this board? And hasn’t the result generally been that we won’t know for sure until somebody tries it?

Of course, overt sabotage of Obama’s chances would be suicidal.

Noble words at the time of concession (which I think the odds now favor sometime in the next couple of weeks), and then support for Obama during the fall campaign - lukewarm, to be sure. It’ll be a delicate balancing act - to appear a party stalwart while already planning for 2012 and beyond.

That’s what you think. :wink:

It’s in the ricochet off the 12th Amendment where the language of the 22nd really comes into its own. The 22nd doesn’t say Bill’s not "constitutionally ineligible to the office of President " - just that he’s not eligible to be elected again. He can become President again, just not by election, so he can be Veep under the 12th.

Exactly. Myself, I am a Gore man, but I will have no qualms voting for Obama in November. He’s fine. Some of his supporters…

Thinking about it, was does Hillary gain by exiting? Once she exits, she loses all her leverage, right? I don’t see her wanting the VP slot, and I don’t see Obama offering it to her, but maybe something else…?

I have to admit, I was expected more supers today. They seem to be willing to let Clinton just Huckabee herself and let the primaries play out until at least Oregon.

I wonder if that slow descent into pathetic insignificance would end up actually helping Obama in the long run more than a grandglorious concession now would? Will Clintonistas just gradually lose their enthuiasm and rally round the presumptive nominee without her telling them to?

DSeid, I actually heard some analyst making that argument today (somewhere…NPR?). Obama doesn’t want to appear to be cruel and totally turn the Clinton supporters against him, so the drip of supers will continue. If he sort of gently assumes the nomination instead of going for the slam dunk at this point, it’ll make it a little less painful. Don’t want to hurt anyone’s feelings.

Well clearly there are some who like Donna Brazile are undeclared but not undecided.

Now why they feel they are doing their duty to unify the party by holding off on declaring their decision is a matter of speculation. But I think that they see that Hillary is only marginalizing herself at this point and that Obama can safely cede her rope while beginning to pivot. She cannot go very negative from her or they will call it. Even huge blow-outs in the next several and an Oregon upset wouldn’t be game changers. They want to give her every chance to go gracefully and to maximize the potential for healing inside the party. So it will apparently just drip along.

But how is she going to keep running? With what?

Superdelegate David Bonior, campaign manager for John Edwards, endorses Obama.

By my count, Hillary’s lead in the superdelegates is now down to 10.

Drip.

Hard to see how she can win the nomination now. Of course, that’s been hard to see for more than a month, and yet she keeps running. I predict, soon after the last primary on June 3, she’ll withdraw, with a speech about being proud of having given every last voter a chance to be heard.

I agree. Somewhere in that speech I hope is a declaration of unity for the party and support for the nominee.

She already did that in her victory speech in Indiana.

I too think the supers (and maybe even Obama) are trying to help Hill save face by slowly announcing delegates for Obama. I also think that her continued run is more about raising funds than winning the nomination. And, lastly, I think that the Secrect Service will have to beat the woman down this Janurary when the new POTUS is giving his inagural speech as she attempts to rush the stage and grab the mic.

Aside from saving her last shred of dignity, she gains the ability to run for (and probably win) Senate Majority Leader, as well as the ability to run for (and maybe win) Governor of New York in 2010.

But how does she do that? From what I’m reading she’s not well liked in the Senate.

John there is also the fact that she is only 61. Presume she really believes that Obama is unelectable. She wants to start off her campaign for 2012’s election, which would begin in January 2009, off without being blamed for that loss.

Doesn’t matter. The dynamic for that sort of closed election is very different from the dynamic of a broader general election or primary. You can freely schmooz and grease palms. You can make promises that you can actually keep. You trade favors, and even call on outside people (lobbyists, former presidents, and so forth) to woo people on your behalf. It’s all very secretive and backroomy. It’s perfectly suited to her skills.

LMAO!! :smiley: just the visual of that is appealing! Oh I can’t wait to hear his inaugural speech! Or his first state of the union. Won’t it be wonderful to have someone with great elocution instead of the Howdy-Doody Doll duh…duh…duh… we’ve been sujected to?