I think it’s too early to tell. As I read it, his ultimate – strategic – goal was to inflict an injury on us so bad that we would be forced to retaliate massively. His hope was then that our retaliation would justify his call to jihad – as he has done – and that Muslims all over the world would answer that call by rising up against the west in general and us in particular. That hasn’t happened, at least not yet.
I think part of the reason is that the most people in the world, including most Muslims, don’t agree that killing several thousand civilians is a good thing. Moreover, our military response so far has been relatively restrained. Afghanistan under the Taliban was already pretty much a pariah state anyway. We haven’t declared a crusade or any other such nonsense and we haven’t gone off half-cocked with big military attacks against other supporters of Arab terrorism. And we certainly haven’t gone nuclear.
On the down side, there seems to be a lot of individual-level support for bin Laden in Muslim countries. The governments have mostly come down against him, or at least not for him, but there seems to be support by some segments of the populace. Worse, the segment that supports him tends to be unattached young men, exactly the audience he wants to reach.
Likewise, their plan was almost certainly not to do a one-shot hit and then run into the mountains to hide out. The ongoing anthrax attacks, though they seem pretty mickey-mouse, are likely intended to push us into even more overt responses. I think we can expect to see more, maybe not as overt as the Sept 11th events, but this is not over yet.
Since this is kind of war we are grossly unprepared for, almost any overt, military response we make will be too much. Our military is extremely well prepared for repelling a massive tank assault. When the enemy is four or five guys in a house in the middle of a middle class neighborhood, our high tech weapons lose a lot of their value, even becoming a detriment. Every time a bomb misses and kills innocent civilians, that counts against us in the Muslim world and turns a few more young men against us.
We call this a war but it needs to be fought with radically different tactics than we’re accustomed to. I can’t help- but think of the scene in the movie Patriot Games where a small squad slips into a terrorist training camp, kills everyone, and leaves in a matter of minutes. Likewise, we’ll need to apply pressure, market pressure, legal pressure, maybe even deadly pressure, against their finances and their supporters.
I’m starting to ramble so I’ll finish up. Only history will tell us how this plays out. In 10 or 15 years, we’ll have a better idea of whether or not he failed. Right now, it’s impossible to say.