I don’t think that a candidate who vocally defends Israel’s conduct in Gaza has much chance of winning either the Democratic nomination or the general election, but I definitely don’t think a Jewish candidate can do so. If you want such a candidate, I’d check out Beshear.
I don’t think it will be a problem for a Jewish candidate who is appropriately critical of Israel.
Well, there’s certainly no love lost between Pritzker and AIPAC, and he seems to support an independent Palestinian state.
I wonder how the results of the Israeli general elections next week will impact the Democratic party, especially if a more moderate coalition replaces Netanyahu. Will it make Israel less of a hot-button issue, or would it lead to a schism between the “Israel needs to do better” and “Israel needs to be destroyed” factions?
I don’t think that’s a significant 'Israel must be destroyed" fraction in US politics, but that’s a large and growing, " the US needs to stop helping Israel" fraction.
I think there would be little impact unless there’s a huge change in policy (like stopping the war in Gaza, or arresting rampaging settlers en masse; maybe both would be needed to significantly reduce the heat of the issue in a Democratic primary).
Sort of a Nixon-goes-to-China thing.
I do not think Gaza will be such a big issue in two years.
This might be worth spinning off into a separate thread but I am curious how Democratic candidates are going to deal with Israel and Gaza in 2028. It’s hard to say how big of an issue it will be but personally I feel like the situation there is more likely to get worse over time rather than better. Regardless, I think any and all Democratic candidates are going to have to be prepared for questions such as “would you consider Israel’s actions in Gaza to be a genocide?” and they also have to be prepared for the fact that all answers to that question are going to make some faction of their support evaporate.
I think candidates will have no choice but to take a position – a few might try to be wishy-washy but will be excoriated by both sides. I think it will be one of the signature issues of the '28 primary, because I think it’s very, very unlikely the Israeli government and military is capable of resolving it (which would mean ending the war in Gaza and stopping the settler violence in the West Bank).
I believe Gaza has been and forever will be a niche issue that only affects a candidates viability at the extremes where their position becomes intolerable to a median voter. I think basic ass two state solution talking points could carry someone to the nomination. This is why the rebellion in the 2024 democratic primary fell on its face and Biden won the nomination by bigger margins than Trump won his.
Gaza is just the latest thing cranks and weirdos obsess over, and seeing as how Mamdani is getting screamed at by protestors for daring to acknowledge that Oct 7th massacre was bad, it would be political suicide to try and appease them. The best stance for 2028 is the samebasic humanitarian pragmatism that Harris represented two years ago.
Ossoff is about to win by double digits in a reddish purple state, so I think it’s safe to say that his policy stances are very electable.
And probably a smaller but related “If loss of American support hurts Israel, well, FAFO.” I agree that whatever is happening in the Levant in two years will be a niche issue for most compared to any sorts of domestic issues.
There’s no reason to assume the current mess there will get any better. Fresh atrocities, fresh mass kidnappings, fresh whatevers.
The folks in Both Israel and Gaza know that they wag the US dog a bunch. And the best way to get attention is to be beastly to their opponent.
I could easily see the entire ~6 month primary season where the war in Gaza is about like it was in the months immediately following Oct 7.
Any thought this won’t be a litmus issue for a hefty fraction of the loudest pundits and the biggest botnets is crazy. It’s too powerful of a lever to use on the D party not to be used. Of course they’ll be bludgeoning us with horrifying headlines and vids. Real ones, not AI-generated fakes. Although they’ll be out there in number too.
Oh, in the primary, sure. Primaries love to fight over the narcissism of small differences and make big pronouncements about things that aren’t going to matter in the general. I’m just not convinced that it’ll be in many people’s top five, much less top issue, if the economy is still shit.
It reminds me of the “candidate age” canard that everyone spent the last year acting like it was the definitive electability issue. Even though an 80 year old beat a 60 year old to become president again.
We have political stances the media likes to nail democrats on (because the media is functionally and arm of the Republican party) and things that voters actually care about, and never the twain shall meet.
First of all, not everything is about you. The Israeli public couldn’t care less about manipulating U.S. public opinion, and Israeli politicians, on the rare instances when they aren’t focused on domestic issues, are really, really bad at it. Netanyahu, for instance, may be more coherent than Trump, but he’s no better diplomat.
Second of all, Israel doesn’t want the situation here to be an issue in the U.S. primaries. As far as any Israeli government is concerned, what it needs is complete radio silence regarding Gaza during that 6-month primary season. Hamas may view things differently, though.
Third of all, two years is a long time. Maybe things will be worse. Maybe things will be the same. Maybe some international force will take responsibility for Gaza, allowing Israel to withdraw. Maybe the Palestinian Authority will take control of the Strip. Maybe peace will spontaneously break out. Maybe the king will die. Maybe the horse will die. And maybe, maybe the horse will learn to sing.
These two statements contradict each other.
Staying out of the spotlight is a form of manipulation? “We’ll manipulate the American public by not giving them something to talk about!”
I concur.
But it is a no-win for Dem candidates. Attacking Israel will lose the Jewish vote and their contributions.
No, staying out of the spotlight is a goal of manipulation. If Israel couldn’t care less about US public opinion, then they wouldn’t care if they were in the spotlight or not.
The timeline is ever-shortening. As @LSLGuy was referencing the US Presidential primary season, we’re roughly 15 months away. Super Tuesday 2028 is now 16 and a half months away.
Still a ways off, but closer to one year than two.