I normally say that you should only look at polling averages, but I think that the relative positions of the candidates probably means something. So this is interesting:
Scroll down to the charts for Buttigieg, Ossoff, Newsom, Harris and AOC vs. Vance and Rubio.
Good news to me is Buttigieg being, by a small margin, the strongest candidate (49 percent for Pete and 44 percent for either Vance or Rubio). Why good news? I’m thinking that if someone only knows one thing about Buttigieg, they know he is gay, and he’s doing well anyway. Of course this is early and Pete is only ahead by a bit, and I would expect there to be a lot of moving about in these rankings over the next couple years.
Ossoff is second-strongest Democrat.
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This poll illustrates to me why you shouldn’t a priori think that the strongest candidate is going to be a straight white male Christian.
True he was low in funds, and was not spending huge amounts … but he had enough to last to there and was the clear top competitor to Sanders getting the nod.
Obviously there are a lot of things up in the air. But I think it would be shocking if she was the first VP in a century to run for the democratic nomination and not only lose, but even couldn’t hang in until after the first primary.
I think the only way that happens is if she has internals of her losing SC, and she’d want to help push her preferred candidate to success. Which feasibly could happen, but it would probably be the most earth shattering moment of the primary.
List of folk who lost running as VP and ran again?
Nixon. Won.
Humphrey. Lost.
And per Claude: “George Clinton / John C. Breckinridge / Charles Fairbanks — each ran once as VP and either lost or failed to get the nomination again”
The other ones who ran as VP and lost knew better than to try again after losing. Even Quayle was smart enough for that!
Also not to overstate the obvious but Nixon’s problem was never his electability.
But your point is taken Humphrey was the candidate whose presidential run was closest to Harris’, and he lost the next primary. I would argue the primary process has change significantly since then, but it’s certainly a precedented outcome.
> Vice President Vance is Unpopular, Just Barely Surpassing Trump
Vice President Vance has a net favorability of -12 (40% favorable – 52% unfavorable, including 40% who find him “very unfavorable”), having been at net -11 favorability for the past four Navigator surveys.
So, yes, many Dem candidates are pretty unpopular in nationwide polls (counting GOP voices al), but they will run against a man whois also pretty damn unpopular.
Sure–but the question isn’t, “Who’s worse, Darth Vader or Grand Moff Tarkin?” The questions are, “Do you approve of Darth Vader? Do you approve of Grand Moff Tarkin?”
I understand that some Imperial simps are on team Darth Vader; and I understand thinking Vader is worse than Tarkin. What I don’t understand is being anti-Vader but pro-Tarkin.
My guess? It’s people who agree with Trump’s policies in general, but think he’s a disgusting person and/or a crook. Whereas Vance comes across as merely corrupt within normal Republican parameters, and doesn’t have a personality to dislike.
53% unfavorable Harris. More than half. Rubio unfavorable 41.
These are significant differences.
Yes voters are polarized. 46, 48 percent unfavorable is probably where a winning candidate ends up , with 51 to 52 favorable. Once you are over 50 unfavorable?Hard to win. Not impossible. Who turns out matters. But your supporters gotta love you.
Interestingly, a little more than 20% of voters appear undecided on Rubio, and less than 5% are undecided on Harris.
I suspect that if she does (shudder) run again, and (shudder) win the nomination, her favorability will creep up. Plenty of leftists frustrated with her last campaign, and with her inability to reflect on her errors, will reluctantly dance with the one what brought us, if it comes to that.
Rubio, though, has a lot of room to go down, as people learn more about him. That 20% undecided number is going to drop as he leans toward or away from Trump.
A Rubio/Harris faceoff isn’t my dream situation, but not because of the relative favorability scores.
If we’re looking for the candidate with the highest combination of favorability and name recognition, the answer would have to be (South Carolina native) Stephen Colbert.
