True and also kind of my point. You can spend a lot of time reading the tea leaves based on public opinion polls that may shift quite a bit by the time the primaries roll around.
Now I do think Colbert does have more ability to wrangle the media than anyone else, which is its own skillset (one that Biden suffered greatly from lacking) but even someone as inexperienced as Bill Clinton (which is still far more experienced) suffered quite a bit from having to tackle a learning curve during that narrow window of legislative control.
The best thing you can say it he’d probably do a better job dealing with the shitstorm of bad faith attacks coming from all sides. But we have precious little time for amateur hour mistakes with the level of chaos the president will have to tackle on inauguration day.
While Colbert obviously wasn’t a serious suggestion, note that Trump got elected with celebrity status as it, and Zelensky was a comic who won and has handled a very serious job. Al Franken was a favorite of mine too.
It wouldn’t be crazy and I wouldn’t assume his unfavorables would outpace his favorability rise as he was considered more.
The point remains: once well known as a candidate and disliked by more than 50% it is difficult to win a majority. Trump did it - but only against Harris, and with the help of very good turnout of those who did like him.
A less known candidate at least has a chance at winning over the swingables who don’t already know them. They might not. But they have more of a chance. Sometimes taking door number two is better than the plucked pigeon in hand. (Mix metaphors much? )
It is the basic concept of baggage weighing a candidate down. The downside of the early name recognition advantage. They know you and they may choose the name they know out of a list, and they also know why they don’t really like you so much.
But unfavorable rating over 50% in a well known potential candidate? Does that shift much historically?
Look at the graph in the RCP you shared. Tremendous effort to raise her up during the campaign. And it got her down on unfavorable as low as low 48 … briefly end of August to start of September … and then climbing back up again.
Unfavorable over 50 simply does not shift that much. It means Independents and low information swingables have mostly already decided they know enough about you to not like you. Again possible to win disliked by so many, Trump has. It is not future written in stone.
You all know that I believe this country will not elect a woman to be President. I’ve made it clear that I hate that but I believe it. And I’ve taken a lot of flack for thinking it, but I don’t mind.
But, I believe Dolly Parton is a woman who could have run for President and been elected. She had many of the qualities the Democratic party should be looking in their 2028 candidate.
Her charisma was powerful and undeniable. And the commitment that she had to leaving this world a better place than she found it is also a quality we need in our next candidate. She had a good business head on her shoulders and invested in projects that improved people’s lives. She lived her values. She had integrity. She was herself, but larger than life. She was beloved.
If the Democrats could find someone to run for president who had a fraction of her compelling appeal, whether that person is male, female, gay, transgendered, black, white, mixed race, or a green alien from Alpha Centauri, that person could get elected president.
It sounds like you mean “this country will not elect a woman who is not of extraordinary talent and appeal to be president”. That’s pretty different than “this country will not elect a woman to be president”.
Really, you wouldn’t expect anyone, of any demographic, to be elected President without extraordinary talent and appeal.
As for Vance polling better than Trump, remember low-information respondents. There are probably a fair number of folks in the poll who gave a neutral response on Vance because they don’t even know who he is.
I wouldn’t give “favorable” to either, but the magnitude of “unfavorable” is higher in my book for Trump than Vance. Vance is a simp and on his own devices wouldn’t get any segment of the party let alone the country to do anything. He is a less dangerous person. Contemptible sure but not the same existential threat that Trump represents.
Someone who is extraordinarily talented and appealing IMHO can overcome the intrinsic disadvantage/handicap of being “female, gay, transgendered, black, mixed race, or a green alien from Alpha Centauri.”
President Trump’s approval rating for his second term has reached a new low, according to a new poll.
In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, the president’s approval rating hit 33 percent, a 14-point slide from the start of his second term, when it was at 47 percent, and a 4-point slide from about a month ago, when it was at 37 percent.The president’s disapproval rating hit 65 percent in the same poll, up 24 points from the beginning of his second term, when it was at 41 percent, and up 4 points from last month, when it was at 61 percent.
Yeah, the small numbers that still stand by him are- as has been said- deplorables.
I’ve edited my post from 4weeks ago to show the latest numbers in bold-face.
AOC is now leading the pack!??!? WTF??!
I veto both women on this list. I am NOT a misogynist: I’d be happy with Gretchen Whitmer.
I LOVE Alexandria but she simply lacks the experience, cunning, and gravitas to be a good President, or even a good candidate. That she tops the list should astonish. And, frankly, is cause for disgust and despair that the extremist progressive wing is still leading the Democratic Party to perdition.
Jon Ossoff must – simply MUST – be on the 2028 ticket. If he is relegated to the Veep slot, i don’t know who to choose to head the ticket. Mark Kelly?
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