At this moment I think it’s more likely than not that Harris ends up the nominee, but outside of California she’s never polled strongly. That isn’t the biggest thing but Dems tend to face uphill climbs as it is. I’d prefer whoever is polling strongest.
I think things could be very different by the time the next election rolls around. Dens spent about 2-3 years talking about who would be the nominee in 2020 without knowing there’d be a pandemic. I imagine most of the conversations in 2007 about the presidential nominee were deemed moot by the great recession.
Right now we don’t know what the country will be looking for.
Republicans are a different breed than dems. So the Jeb! (Or Rudy) candidacies are victims of a much different primary electorate. I think the best comparison is Hillary’s huge polling lead in 2007. She had 48% of the vote with Obama running second with 21%. So an Ossoff someone like that could surely make an argument as the face of the future, just like Obama did.
But I will say (barring a health issue, or just a lack of will to run) she’ll either be the nominee, or be running in second place.
If Harris wins, it will be more because people are voting “not-a-Republican” rather than they genuinely want Harris. I don’t feel there’s anything compelling about her specifically. I feel she’s a generic Democrat who says whatever the focus group analysis indicates she should say. Some of the ideas she came up with with on her own seemed weird, like her plan to help Black people get into the cannabis industry. If she gets the nomination, the hope is that enough independents and Republicans are so fed up with Trump and the Republican party that they either stay home or vote for Harris out of spite. I don’t see her as a candidate which will motivate the electorate to vote for her, so I don’t see her motivating the non-core Democrats enough to overcome a charismatic Republican candidate.
Wtf is this even referring to? What a weird insult to use.
Yeah, I really don’t get the hate. Harris isn’t the best option in my opinion; she dropped out on 2020 with about 4% support in the primary, so it’s not exactly like she was a frontrunner. I doubt she would have been the nominee in 2024 if Biden hadn’t dropped out the way he did. But I don’t get the vitriol for her at all.
Yes, we definitely need someone who outperformed Harris in a swing state on the ballot, at least as VP.
I think Harris’s polling is pretty mediocre given her name recognition relative to the rest of the field. She will drop back as others officially run. I think she will probably run, but wouldn’t surprise me is she has a disappointing showing in South Carolina and drops out early. I don’t see her as any sort of favorite.
There isn’t much. You really do have to discount the Box Wine poster as that is just what they do.
It is more a tension between, well mostly one poster who posits that she is the presumptive nominee, and others who have some combination of just not loving her, thinking she’d be a weak general election candidate, not thinking she’ll even run or get far if she did, and/or seeing much more strength on the bench with fresher faces.
I think excitement is best served with a fresher face. And I want excitement for something as well as the obvious anger so many have at what we have had.
This exactly expresses my feelings. I’d just as soon she not run for this reason. If she’s nominated, i will campaign for her enthusiastically.
Yeah. It’s one of those insults that reflects more on the person using it than on the person insulted. For that matter, box wine is affordable, available, and reliably good, if never great. I would LOVE to have a president with those virtues.
And it’s been many decades since there was any evidence that voters actually care about military service. By my count, there have been seven elections since 1972 in which one candidate was a highly decorated military veteran and the other had either an unimpressive service record or never served at all, and the civilians have won six of them (1972, 1980, 1992, 1996, 2004, 2008; 1988 was the only time since 1960 that a veteran beat a non-veteran). John McCain in 2008 was the last veteran to even win a nomination.
George HW Bush flew 58 combat missions in WW2, and was once shot down and had to parachute into the ocean. Dukakis was in military intelligence for three years during peacetime.
JFK piloted a PT boat and earned medals for heroism in combat, including a Purple Heart. Nixon served in the Navy as an operations officer and never saw combat.
No disrespect to Dukakis or Nixon, and I was incorrect in calling Dukakis a “non-veteran”, but I think it’s fair to say their opponents had significantly more impressive military credentials.
The thing that strikes me most about the talk about Harris, is it just sounds so similar to how people talked about Biden in 2020.
I think I’d be personally more likely to vote for Ossoff or Kelly if I had to decide this moment. (Biden certainly wasn’t my first or second choice either) but I wonder if the dynamics that knocked out the rest of the primary field back then are still in play. Because the people who can actually beat Harris aren’t part of the Bernie Sanders’ cool kids club. So I could see a divided primary defaulting to Harris after the “fresh face” people refuse to definitively pick who that face should be.
I can’t understand why Harris is still under consideration at all. She failed to flip a single swing state! Her candidacy was abysmal. She gave us the second Trump term. Why in the fucking hell is anyone still talking about Harris? She needs to get out of politics forever.
Simple answer: name recognition so she polls well. Add to that that the primary season starts in South Carolina and the older Black demographic in particular seems to like her more than any other group does.
Problem for her though is that the big donors who came out when she was Biden’s replacement are mostly of the same analysis as you are. And riding a wave of small donors Bernie style is unlikely to be in her cards.
My sense remains that she is waiting to see if some big checkbooks yet open up. If not then she announces, after midterms, that she is not running. And we see if Newsom’s gambit plays out and she endorses him.
Meanwhile a media buzz favorite now has a feature piece in The Atlantic as well. He is hot. But I suspect will win his Senate race and peak there, too soon.
I’m going to wonder who starts to rise a month after midterms…
