So very very wrong. trump is a Right Wing Populist and they have been winning elections all over the world. They make great lies and promises that they cant keep, but the voters- not just in America but everywhere- buy into that. Look at Netanyahu - another terrible candidate, yet he won. Milei, Bolsonaro, Modi, Orban and more-
And of course both Hillary and Harris had issues besides being women.
I refer you to the tweet I shared upthread and the clip therein;
Granted, this is only one poll and the main takeaway from it is there’s no clear consensus among Democratic voters right now, but she’s out in front of the pack at the moment, and with establishment Democrats like Schumer and Newsom trying to be Diet Republicans and tanking their approval ratings in the process I think she needs to be considered a frontrunner.
I am an AOC fanboy, but she can’t win the presidency. Maybe things get so absolutely fucked up between now and then that this enters the realm of the possible, but not seeing it right now.
What makes this speculation so hard is that I have no idea what kind of country the U.S. will be in early 2028.
Suppose support for MAGA has blessedly collapsed, and Trump has little more control over the media than he has now. Maybe the Supreme Court will have struck down Trump’s emergency powers, forcing him to govern as a normal GOP president, albeit with a bigger mouth. This is the Indira Gandhi two-year emergency, ending in complete polling collapse, scenario I dream of. Then, the Democrats can, with some safety, have a normal primary season, voting for whomever best matches their ideology. That will likely be a real progressive.
But there are some weird (and tragic!) alternative scenarios. Maybe Trumpers will by then control – really control – two out of the traditional big three (NBC/ABC/CBS). Maybe Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton will be in prison. Maybe Trump will control agencies producing U.S. economic statistics, with Democratic claims that the administration’s inflation numbers are a lie ignored by mostly Trump controlled mainstream media. Maybe Trump will be on track to run for a third term, with little blowback except from committed Democrats. . Maybe we are deep in a big war. Under these circumstances, shell-shocked Democrats will take seriously the idea that a unified opposition is essential, and accept whatever candidate party leaders seem to favor. And because the overton window has pushed right in such a scenario, we are looking at a centrist nominee.
Then what does the “rolled into one” comment even mean?
You can yell at me all you want, but I don’t think Democrats should get into the business of helping the Republicans push racism and sexism, even if it does help them win elections.
Seriously?
Democrats cannot save this country unless they first get elected. And to get elected they must face political reality. They don’t have to like it but they must acknowledge it and work with it as it is now.
If getting elected means throwing away the values we’re supposedly fighting to preserve then it’s not worth it. We may as well be Republicans then.
Re the last post, surely there always are some values you, and even I, hold dear but know the country is not ready for.
IMHO, candidate gender has no predictable effect on election outcomes. But I’m pretty sure the country is not ready for a non-cisgender President. Attitudes there are changing fast. Maybe in three years, it will be fine. But we probably are a few cycles away from where a trans nominee would be a safe choice.
Ah, gotcha - I did miss that. But 10% when the leading response was “no one” at 30% doesn’t really signify much to me personally. I sorta put that into the same baked-in numbers as Trump’s minority of unshakeable MAGA core. Progressives can easily get AOC to 10% or more. I just don’t think she has the cross-appeal to get her to a majority or even a substantial plurality.
But we’ll see.
As I said above, the country wasn’t “ready” for desegregation either. Nor gay rights, women’s lib, or a score of other things. Interracial marriage didn’t reach 50% approval until the late '90s. If you wait until the country is “ready” for change then the time will never come.
And I’m not saying it should be AOC or anyone else who isn’t a old White guy, but preemptively letting the Republican’s relentless push toward more racism and sexism become a reason to descriminate ourselves should not be acceptable.
Winning is not reason enough to become monsters ourselves.
I’ll agree with you in the sense that lecturing fellow Democrats not to vote, in the primaries, for a candidate based on their race or gender status is unhelpful. If the Democrats are willing to nominate someone from a particular demographic, that’s strong evidence someone from that demographic, if an outstanding candidate, could win nationally.
However, the situation where the GOP candidate is a wannabe dictator changes things a bit. Having the Democrat win is no longer just nice to have. We can argue over what makes for electability, but, in the MAGA era, I want a winner.
If the only way Democrats can get elected is to become more like Republicans, then the very people that voted them in will have done so precisely because they said they were more like Republicans and those particular Democrats that were placed in positions of power will then be rendered powerless by that electorate.
Which values are we throwing away?
AOC will be 39 in January, 2029, which would make her the youngest president to ever hold that office should she be elected. The youngest so far was Teddy Roosevelt, who was 42 when McKinley was assassinated. The second-youngest was JFK, who took office at the age of 43.
Whether AOC is the best candidate will depend on the state of the country a few years from now. If Trump succeeds in wrecking the economy and kills off government services that people really want, the voting public could be ready for real change. FDR won in 1932 because of the Great Depression and the failed response of the Hoover Administration.
If Trump does all that and convinces the American public that what has happened is inevitable, then enough of them may just give up. I believe that is a major goal when it comes to the current regime.
All of them, apparently. Or that seems to be the recommendation.
Of course it won’t work; it never works. The rightwingers the Democrats are trying to appeal to just keep voting Republican, while the people they’ve thrown under the bus stay home and don’t vote.
C’mon, Der_T, that’s not an answer. Which values, and by whose recommendation?
Plenty of establishment Democrats are more than happy to throw trans people under the bus right now, for one.
All of them. Opposition to racism, sexism, homophobia, transphobia, religious bigotry, slavery, torture, dishonesty, corruption, and everything else of value about the Democrats. And the people recommending it are the ones saying the Democrats should be more like the Republicans.