In some ways, the current political shift reminds me of the rise of evangelicalism in the 1800’s. Churches were stoic, solemn, boring places. Along came evangelicals who held exciting and passionate sermons in huge tents. People flocked to them in crowds 10000+ in size. As touring evangelicals came through town, people would switch denominations if the new preacher was more exciting than the last one. People were connecting with whichever preacher gave them the best emotional experience. That’s kind of what seems to be going on with politics today. Perhaps not with everyone, but large swaths of the voters seem to be made up of people who are easily swayed by whoever makes the best emotional connection. It doesn’t seem to matter what qualifications the politicians have. All that matters is who is the most exciting and dynamic.
Someone like Buttigieg doesn’t have a chance. He’s very qualified, but he’d lose because he’s too boring. Being gay wouldn’t really matter all that much. He’d be like the Christian preacher giving a sermon in Latin to half-empty church trying to compete with the a snake-oil evangelical preacher giving a sermon to a 1000+ crowd of people. As such, of the current crop, I could see Newsom having a chance. He seems to have some natural charisma that gets people to listen to him.
I hope that the Democrats realize that they need to have a candidate which will truly excite the voters. If the candidate is not buzz-worthy and able to self-generate headlines across a wide swath of social and traditional media, they likely won’t win. They can’t just be highly qualified. That doesn’t interest enough voters to win.
I reject the idea that the Democrats need something radical. It was an extremely close election during a world wide incumbent backlash after a once in a century pandemic.
They need a media strategy to counter the rampant propaganda, but I didn’t know the candidate needs to be a rockstar. Given the coming turmoil and corruption I think a normal politician will be appealing.
Taylor Swift. Mark Cuban has been brought up, and if he can be considered a serious candidate, I see no reason Swift couldn’t be considered. She would just need to surround herself with good cabinet secretaries and runs with a “senior states person” type as VP. I honestly don’t think her lack of political experience would be a deal breaker.
I think fetterman could rise to the occasion of Dem nominee too. I know he’s a Senator and I said up thread that the days of the Senate producing nominees could be over. But I think he could rise up in spite of his place in the Senate, not necessarily because of it.
He could potentially draw a following because of his uniqueness- a ginormous goofy looking guy with charisma and everyman appeal who wears sweats and hoodies. More importantly to 2028, right now he appears to be quickly tacking to the right by meeting with Trump and talking about supporting Trump’s nominees, yadda yadda. If he wants to gain the trust and support of Trump’s voters, this is a good way to do it.
Then, when shit starts hitting the fan in a year or two, as it likely will under an ignoramus like Trump, Fetterman can pivot back to behind Trump’s biggest antagonist. (“Hey, I trusted this guy, I gave him every chance, I met with him, worked with him, but what he’s done to our country is fucked…”)
If he’s able to earn the trust of those low-info voters that cast votes for Trump, they may then listen to what he has to say once he points out all the shitfuckery the Trump team is up to. He becomes a credible voice of opposition for the Dems.
I don’t think he’s becoming the new manchin or sinema with his sudden tack to the right, I think he’s playing the long game to ultimately run against Trump’s & the GOP’s failed policies by first appearing to be willing to work with Trump and the GOP.
I’m not saying this will work, but I suspect that’s what he may be going for
But I think his stroke history would hurt him in the general election.
As for your idea he will pivot to the left, I am tolerant of politicians changing their minds. But very few politicians can pull it off, especially if he changes his mind repeatedly…
I don’t. He barely survived his senate campaign. I can’t imagine he has the stamina to run a presidential campaign, let alone has the chops to do the job.
I think – not all that chilling. Kamala Harris is California Democrat, and female, and Black, and Asian, and almost won.
However, I think that after two MAGA terms, Democrats are going to be, more than normally, focused on electability. Some small portion (perhaps overrepresented here) of them think electability comes from energizing the progressive base. But most Democrats correctly realize that electability comes from capturing the center. As a result, anyone who seem to be even a smidgen to the left of the party’s center is going to have a hard time winning primaries. In my opinion, 2028 Democratic Party voters will drink their castor oil if it looks like it will stop MAGA.
I’m Californian, and have seen a lot of Gavin Newsom.
There have been times when Newsom has gotten way out ahead of most of the country. One example is same-sex marriage. When he was mayor of San Francisco, he ordered the local government to start issuing same-sex marriage licenses before it was legal at the state or federal level.
But overall, I don’t think he’s terribly far left. He’s not AOC. I think it’s easier to stick to an ideology as a legislator than as a governor.
Newsom is a bit of a policy wonk. He has a tendency to come off as a blowhard sometimes, which will turn off a lot of voters. He can also come across as smarmy.
Four years is a long time. Things are likely to look a lot different when the next presidential election comes around. There’s a real possibility that Trump will wreck the economy, or badly mismanage a crisis, or make some foreign policy blunders. The ideal candidate will depend on what shape the country is in, and on the mood of the electorate. And new names will come forward in the next couple of years.
IMO, he looks like he ought to be playing the evil real estate developer in a '90s family movie, who wants to tear down a beloved hangout to build luxury condos.
I feel like at this point, Democrats are at a huge disadvantage nationally and thus, will be scrambling to create a new identity before the 2028 election.
It’s not just something that can be “Triangulated” out of. That worked for Bill Clinton but the way this country is now, simply flitting around aimlessly in the Center won’t get it done.
I sometimes wonder if the best strategy for Dems in 2028 would be going hard to the Left. Not as far as the European Left, but still pretty Lefty; bit of FDR and LBJ perhaps.
Offer Medicare for all (who want it). Far higher marginal tax-rates (go like Ike-era on that one). University education paid by the government. Government provided child-care. Much stiffer regulations on business.
It couldn’t be lukewarm or half-assed, and the party as a whole would need to be in on it.
Crazy, I know but the Dems gotta bust a move bigtime in some direction or else… they gets nothin.
Sure. But- A CalMatters analysis published in 2019 found Newsom’s political positions to be more moderate than those of almost every Democratic state legislator in California. Gavin Newsom - Wikipedia.
I think that governors generally are more moderate than legislators. Plus they are more electable in a presidential ticket.
Archie Bunker used to make an ugly jibe about California that I don’t want to repeat. But I doubt that the median voter of today, and even the average not-quite-as-bad-as-Archie voter of today, has super-strong stereotyped beliefs about the politics of the American states. I thought that Bernie was unelectable because of admitting to being a socialist, but being from Vermont – no biggie. Same with California.
I see a plus with nominating a candidate from a swing state like Michigan, Pennsylvania or Arizona, but beyond that, the state of residence of the candidate is unimportant.
We need to get over trying to be republican lite. It’s time to be progressive. Bernie, and Warren are too old.We need someone with youthful energy, and policy for the working class.
But he did, and he knows how to win statewide in PA as a Democrat. That’s gold.
His state has gone to Trump twice in the past three elections. His tack to the right is an acknowledgement of that, and a realization that he needs to publicly give the guy they elected to president a chance. But I don’t think he has any intention of leaving his place in the Dem party. I suspect he has big ambitions as a Dem, and that’s why he and Shapiro aren’t friendly. They have their eyes on the same job.
Eta: obviously this is all jmo. No one has any idea is what the fuck is gonna happen as the past six months have shown us.