Future of Colombia and the FARC

Great Debates
1

The Colombian rebel organization FARC just got a new leader, Alfonso Cano (aka Guillermo Leon Saenz), replacing the late Manuel Marulanda.

According to this article, the consensus seems to be that the FARC (1) is pretty much on the ropes in military terms but (2) remains “relevant” and ain’t going away any time soon. It also describes Cano as more of an “intellectual” than Marulanda.

Hugo Chavez just called on the FARC to release all its hostages unconditionally. (He recently suffered an embarrassment when evidence emerged of his giving aid to the rebels.) Chavez says his goal is to “negotiate an end” to Colombia’s civil war, while Cano maintains FARC’s goal remains “to rule Colombia.”

Just because FARC’s being stubborn doesn’t mean it will remain so. Look at the history of El Salvador and Nicaragua, where the leftist movements ultimately accepted elections that relegated them to a loyal-opposition role. But is the Colombian situation essentially different? What are the prospects for a negotiated settlement and peaceful nationwide elections? And if that happened, with what electoral result? At this point, practically every country in Latin America has a democratically elected left-of-center government, Mexico and Colombia being the odd men out (there are others, but those two are the biggies).

2

Columbia already has a democratic left-of-center party…the Columbian Liberal Party. FARC is a left-wing radical narcoterrorist group, and they’re not interested in the democratic process or coming into the government.

3

Well, that’s the debate: Could that change?

4

why would it? Colombia already apparently has a leftist party. What role with FARC serve?

5

The problem is that the FARC remains a force in rebellion and remains in exclusive control of large parts of the country and still occasionally blows things up and so on and, as noted, ain’t going away. What would it take to get them to lay down their arms and take their chances as a political party at the polls, like the FMLN in El Salvador?

6

The problem, the most relevant one at least, is that the FARC is at this point nothing short of a drug cartel. Political negotiation will do diddly squat to persuade the FARC drug lords to give up their ways.

7

They ain’t doing it. The last time a Colombian rebel organization did that, M-19, many of their leaders and political activists were assassinated by the right wing. In any case, as has been said, the FARC at this point is much more about drugs than it is about politics.

They aren’t going away voluntarily. However, I do think their influence and capabilities will decline as the Colombian government keeps on pounding them. I certainly hope so - there are places in Panama near the Colombian border where you can’t go because they are FARC refuges.

8

If FARC really is just a drug cartel, everyone knows how to starve them to death but nobody in power wants to do it. I don’t even know if you really want this thread to go that way.