Future of World Geopolitics


With Iraq and Afghan wars ending, the US has begun to turn its eyes to the Pacific where China has begun its new march to power. I find the current situation similar to the Anglo-German rivalry a hundred years ago actually-China has begun its own naval buildup and it is an advanced country without a real democracy (indeed more authoritarian than the Second Reich ever was). Eventually I hope an Indo-American alliance will be formed and can be used against both Pakistan and China to contain them.

Heck, I’m mildly hoping for an India/China war, just to see what would happen.

How does a Chinese naval buildup harm America?

Millions dead, since both sides have nuclear weapons. Which is why it isn’t likely to happen.

Simple, China’s navy grows strong enough, it’ll pose a threat to America in the Pacific-critical for our trade and maintenance of forces in Korea, Japan, Australia etc.

So what?

The only time that US dominance of that region is of benefit to us as a country is when we decide to operate outside the bounds of agreements in our own interest. If we operate* legally*, then there is no need for control, as we would have it even if we only had one piddly little boat out there.

A naval invasion of Chinese is beyond extremely unlikely. Even if the Chinese decide to flex their muscles a bit they aren’t going to start a war with other nuclear armed powers or countries under the protection of one.

I don’t think the economic relationship between the British and German Empires was much like that between the U.S. and China today. Was each the other’s biggest trading partner? Was Britain a market for cheap German manufactures crowding out British products in UK stores? How can we and China get a proper superpower-rivalry-cold-war going on if we need each other in the marketplace all the time?

Can always count on Quin for ridiculing his own position beyond salvation in less than ten posts.

Given that the US spends about as much on defense as the rest of the world combined, I think it’s absurd to worry about China’s capabilities.

Given that “godsend” means “an extremely fortuitous windfall,” I am having trouble understanding this.

Eventually, someone would point out that if we stop invading countries, we have no need to maintain the military we have now. Because we don’t. End Iraq, end Afghanistan, and start cutting overseas bases, reduce military spending by 1/3. Easy.

But if the Navy can point at the Chinese and their fledgling tiny navy as a “threat”, they can justify keeping their toys, and not getting cut as badly as the rest of the armed services.

It’s the other countries in SE Asia making the most noise. They don’t want to be dominated by China, and the U.S. is the only bulwark against that.

I’ve heard that before, but I wonder how frightened the other Asians are of China really. Even the Taiwanese.

OK, they don’t want to be dominated by China.

Sucks to be them. What do they want the United States to do for them? Build even more aircraft carriers?

If your country is a third world shithole with no economic, social, or political power, you’re going to be dominated by countries that have their act together.

So the only protection against powerful overseas countries is to develop your own goddam country, then your country can decide its own fate rather than having to choose between patrons. It ain’t like they want to be dominated by America either.

Well . . . the Cubans liked Soviet domination better than American domination because the USSR was so far away.

I apologize. I should have said it would be a godsend for the US military. Not the country as a whole.

I’d say pretty frightened. If it weren’t for America, Taiwan would be another province of China today.

Not all countries in SE Asia are third world shit holes. And size matters. China has a population 20-100 times greater than its neighbors. There’s no real hope for them to resist China alone. So faced with a choice between China and America, it’s no wonder they choose America.

Our biggest trading partner in East Asia is China. Is China going to use its navy to cut off exports from itself? To quote Treebeard, that doesn’t make any sense to me.

As for America’s military forces in Japan, South Korea, and elsewhere in the East Pacific, that problem can be easily solved. Withdraw American forces from those places and the Chinese will no longer pose a threat to said forces.

I say this while agreeing with you, that China as a powerful, non-democratic nation, is not generally a nation that we’d want to trust, and that they probably will expand their sphere of influence no matter what we do. If you search, you’ll see I have a long history of speaking out against the dangers of current and future Chinese influence. However, it’s not the purpose of the American military to sit at various places around the world and try to intimidate countries like China into not creating a bigger military.

So…we should build more aircraft carriers? Or what? China does have a population four times larger than the US, so they outnumber us too, and we’re halfway across the globe. So if sheer size is the criteria, then what do they expect the United States to do for them, and what exactly do we get out of the deal?

What does it mean to “resist” China? You mean, resist an invasion? Or resist Chinese businesses buying and selling goods and services in their countries? Resist cultural domination?

But they don’t need us now. If we were to withdraw American military protection, Taiwan could handle the PRC on its own and the PRC knows it. We’ve been over this many times before. Not even South Korea really needs American protection any more.