I just took my PredictIt winnings from Gianforte’s victory and bought HANDEL.GA06.2017 shares at 42 cents.
That is: I predict, with not just a voice but real world money, that Handel beats Ossuff.
I was mildly surprised to see Ossuf has a slight lead in the polls. But it looks like the undecideds are still are a large factor and given the district make-up I’d assume a sizeable break towards any Republican candidate on election day. Especially in a run-off.
I imagine your bet is more of a risk than the recent Montana special election, but still probably a safeish call.
I predict that I will be the first person in this thread to correctly spell “Ossoff.”
Anyone who knows the GA 6th is not going to give great odds on Ossoff. He’s got a lot of momentum in the little purple corner in the southwest, but the rest of the district is intractably red and very politically engaged.
42 cents is a good deal in a district with huge GOP advantage. I’d take that bet too.
But if the question is just 50/50, I might lean Ossoff. Kicking 14 million people off health insurance is pretty unpopular.
The latest poll, and the first taken since this whole Russia thing really hit the fan, has Ossoff ahead 51% vs. 44%.
You win. :smack:
The Republicans won the seat in Montana 50/44, but they won the same seat last year 56/40
The special election in Kansas had the same character. If the election in Georgia, another “safe” seat is close it could mean that other, more competitive seats won by Republicans last year could flip next year. We shall see.
Well, early voting opened yesterday and I waited in line for 10 minutes. I’ve never seen a line for early voting in a midterm election, let alone a runoff for a special election. Not sure what to make of that, but the turnout sure seems exceptional.
The only way that this won’t lead to a massive shift is if the closeness of these elections was due to lack of name recognition between two non-incumbents, and that wasn’t a factor in the Montana election. I don’t think that the blue side is going to get less outraged over the next year, but it’s possible that Republicans will still turn out to support their swamp creature even if they’re not enthusiastic about anyone else in Washington.
I am really amazed by Handel’s lead in this election. I know Georgia isn’t all Religious Right, but I wasn’t really expecting a Baroque composer to be so popular.
Gianforte ran in November 2016 for statewide office, and lost 50-46. So he actually gained votes in just six months.
Yes! Everything is going Republicans’ way, and they just need to keep doing what they’re doing for guaranteed success. Keep on Trumpin’!
It certainly seems to be. Presidency, Senate, House, governors, and statehouses.
Your partisanship is blinding you to the growing grassroots movements that show exactly how badly things are going for the GOP. And how unpopular they’re becoming. I’m not predicting a major change at midterms, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility, either.
Fivethirtyeight says Democrats are overperforming in special elections almost everywhere.
My partisanship? That’s funny, coming from someone on your side of the (SDMB) aisle. One of your fellow travelers predicted that not only would Clinton win, but the Dems would take back the House and Senate in 2016.
The SDMB: We can tell which party will control things for the next few years by the fact that Democrats are losing by a lot less than they usually do!
Republicans: We can tell which party will control things for the next few years by the fact that Democrats are losing.
Regards,
Shodan
Are you saying the Republicans will still control the House after 2018? I’m certainly not willing to make a prediction at this time. If you’re not saying this, is this just another generic “Republicans=smart, SDMB/Democrats=dumb” post?
What do you call a Democrat who loses an election by a smaller margin than usual?
Hint: you do not call him “Congressman”.
Regards,
Shodan