Odds of last 2 cases being the 2 worst: 1 in 400
Combine that with round 1 misery, we’re looking at like 2000 to 1 that two consecutive rounds could be this bad!
While it is unlikely, I don’t think it is quite as low as you are saying here. I figure the probability of the last 2 cases being the 2 lowest at 1 in 190. The probability that the last 2 cases are both below $750, I figure to be about 41%. Taken together, I figure the probability of having two rounds this bad are about 1 in 500.
whoops, that’s probably why I won’t win this game.
Thats alright though, the real money will start when the million hits the board anyway
I will freely admit that I’m one of those totally boned. I sense elimination coming soon. 
But even on TV, the times where the first deal is the absolute best seem pretty rare.
While I have seen it happen on TV, it is more unlikely there since they lowball the first offer or two more than I do. That said, I would not have accepted the first offer on either of these rounds if I had been playing either.
MG, I sure hope your hemorrhoids have healed so you start picking better cases to open. :o
I have not ever played a “home” version of this game, but I think I have figured out the strategy, which is, IMO, somewhat different than the Howie Mandel TV version. you want to beat the other players not necessarily maximize the dollars because we are just playing for fun anyways.
oops, there goes my secret. :smack:
End of Round 2
The first offer for $9500 was accepted by Larry Borgia.
No one accepted the second offer for $8000.
The third offer for $3000 was accepted by Taber and Mahaloth.
The fourth offer for $700 was accepted by Biotop.
The fifth offer for $850 was accepted by notfrommensa.
The sixth offer for $150 was accepted by MadTheSwine.
No one acccepted the seventh offer for 175 or the eighth offer for .45.
The two players who refused all offers both kept case number 1 which contained $.01.
So the standings after two rounds are:
- Larry Borgia $21500
- Biotop $12700
- Bootis $12000.01
- Taber $3360
- Mahaloth $3010
- notfrommensa $860
- MadTheSwine $160
- Leaper $10.01
I will start Round 3 in my next post, which should be shortly.
I will start the third round in the next post. The next two rounds will have 22 cases with the following values:
.01
1
5
10
25
50
75
100
200
300
400
500
750
1000
5000
10000
25000
50000
75000
100000
200000
300000
We will open 5 cases to start. We will open 4 for the next phase, then 3, then 2, then 2 again, then 1 at a time.
We still have the following players:
- Leaper
- LarryBorgia
- MadTheSwine
- Mahaloth
- Biotop
- notfrommensa
- Bootis
- Taber
We will be reducing the field to 6 players after the 4th round.
A couple of players did not respond to an offer in the second round. If I do not hear from them for the first phase of round 3, they will be removed from the game. I am going to send a PM to all 8 players reminding them that round 3 has begun.
Beginning of round 3.
The values have been randomly assigned to the cases and case 1 is set aside for the players.
The first 5 cases open are as follows:
Case 5, $750; Case 4, $1; Case 20, $10000; Case 16, $300000; Case 9, $5.
This leaves the following values in play:
.01
10
25
50
75
100
200
300
400
500
1000
5000
25000
50000
75000
100000
200000
The first offer from the bank is $19000.
Please send me a PM saying “Deal” or “No Deal” before 10:30 AM CST on Sunday, March 14. Once I have received a valid PM from all eight players, we will proceed to the second phase of round 3.
Forgot to mention in last post that 4 cases will be open in the next phase.
Wow, Larry is some kind of psychic. (ETA: Or he’s a lucky bastard who forgot about the game at exactly the right round.)
And bwahahahaha! I just had to see if I got the penny!
He did forget a deadline in round 1 and wound up taking offer 2 by default, but he did accept the first offer of round 2.
I have heard from all 8 players for the first offer of round 3. Since at least one player has not accepted the offer we will continue with round 3.
The next 4 cases open are as follows:
Case 19, $5000; Case 21, $300; Case 10, 100000; Case 6, .01
This leaves the following values in play:
10
25
50
75
100
200
400
500
1000
25000
50000
75000
200000
The offer from the bank remains $19000.
Any player who has not accepted an offer for round 3 should send me a PM saying “Deal” or “No Deal” before 12:00 Noon CST on Monday, March 16. I would appreciate it if you would put “Round 3 offer 2” in the subject of your PM. Once I have received a valid PM from all the relevant players, we will proceed to the third phase of round 3.
There will be 3 cases opened in the next phase of round 3.
Previous offers:
$19000
That’s lucky. The 100000 case was opened and the offer stayed the same.
agreed, I guess the only way the offer was going to drop was if the top amount was opened?
Before anyone thinks I’m being a whiny spoilsport, MentalGuy is the banker, and in the spirit of the show, should be heckled and scorned for his ludicrous offers.
The response period for offer 2 of round 3 has now ended. I have heard from all the players except one who will automatically accept the deal. Since at least one player has not accepted the offer we will continue with round 3.
The next 3 cases open are as follows:
Case 17, $50000; Case 12, $1000; Case 8, $500
This leaves the following values in play:
10
25
50
75
100
200
400
25000
75000
200000
The offer from the bank is now $21000.
Any player who has not accepted an offer for round 3 should send me a PM saying “Deal” or “No Deal” before 2:00 PM CDT on Wednesday, March 18. I would appreciate it if you would put “Round 3 offer 3” in the subject of your PM. Once I have received a valid PM from all the relevant players, we will proceed to the fourth phase of round 3.
There will be 2 cases opened in the next phase of round 3.
Previous offers:
$19000
$19000
I have heard from all the necessary participants for the third offer of round 3. Since at least one player has not accepted the offer we will continue with round 3.
The next 2 cases open are as follows:
Case 14, $50; Case 13, $75
This leaves the following values in play:
10
25
100
200
400
25000
75000
200000
The offer from the bank is now $25000.
Any player who has not accepted an offer for round 3 should send me a PM saying “Deal” or “No Deal” before 11:00 PM CDT on Thursday, March 18. I would appreciate it if you would put “Round 3 offer 4” in the subject of your PM. Once I have received a valid PM from all the relevant players, we will proceed to the fifth phase of round 3.
There will once again be 2 cases opened in the next phase of round 3.
Previous offers:
$19000
$19000
$21000
I have heard from all the necessary participants for the fourth offer of round 3. Since at least one player has not accepted the offer we will continue with round 3.
The next 2 cases open are as follows:
Next 2: Case 2, $200; Case 22, $25000
This leaves the following values in play:
10
25
100
400
75000
200000
The offer from the bank is now $31000.
Any player who has not accepted an offer for round 3 should send me a PM saying “Deal” or “No Deal” before 11:00 PM CDT on Friday, March 19. I would appreciate it if you would put “Round 3 offer 5” in the subject of your PM. Once I have received a valid PM from all the relevant players, we will proceed to the fifth phase of round 3.
There will be one case opened in each remaining phase of round 3.
Previous offers:
$19000
$19000
$21000
$25000
I have heard from all the necessary participants for the fifth offer of round 3. Since at least one player has not accepted the offer we will continue with round 3.
The next case opened is:
Case 3, $75000
This leaves the following values in play:
10
25
100
400
200000
The offer from the bank is now $27000.
Any player who has not accepted an offer for round 3 should send me a PM saying “Deal” or “No Deal” before 11:00 PM CDT on Saturday, March 20. I would appreciate it if you would put “Round 3 offer 6” in the subject of your PM. Once I have received a valid PM from all the relevant players, we will proceed to the seventh phase of round 3.
There will be one case opened in each remaining phase of round 3.
Previous offers:
$19000
$19000
$21000
$25000
$31000