Gaza poll - some hope?

[DSeid]

Here’s a poll that some may find interesting.

The most important finding of this poll is that the overwhelming majority of the Palestinians, (88.2 %), are for the present in favor of a Palestinian-Israeli truce, specifically (86.1 %) in Gaza Strip and (89.6 %) in the West Bank. Dr. Kukali further commented the outcome of the poll saying that the rate of support for Fateh (40.6 %) among the Palestinians lies now higher than that for Hamas (31.4 %). The rate of Fateh’s popularity in Gaza Strip, established at (42.5 %), lies much higher than that of Hamas on its own terrain, reaching namely the rate of (27.8 %). The same trend has been found in the West Bank, where Fateh scored (39.2 %) of the Palestinians’ support, whilst Hamas has to content itself with only (23.7 %). … (56 %) of the residents of Gaza Strip believe that Hamas is navigating the country towards the wrong direction, whilst (48.3 %) of the Palestinians in the West Bank believe that. Regarding the inauguration of the new US-president Barak Obama, (41.7 %) of the Palestinian public have a positive opinion of him as they hope that Mr. Obama will undertake practical and serious measures to achieve peace in the Middle East region.

Now of course we need to see what tomorrow’s poll of the Israeli public brings forth, but there really does seem to be window of opportunity here that must not be squandered.

[Declan]

@DSeid

Here’s a poll that some may find interesting.

Now of course we need to see what tomorrow’s poll of the Israeli public brings forth, but there really does seem to be window of opportunity here that must not be squandered.

Not really, it would just mean that there is a foundation to build on. That the gazans are reacting to the recent conflict.

@Poll

The most important finding of this poll is that the overwhelming majority of the Palestinians, (88.2 %), are for the present in favor of a Palestinian-Israeli truce, specifically (86.1 %) in Gaza Strip

IF it stops the steel rain, then sure the Gazans are going to be for a truce, what are they going to be like next year when they have had a year of relative peace and quiet.

@Poll

Dr. Kukali further commented the outcome of the poll saying that the rate of support for Fateh (40.6 %) among the Palestinians lies now higher than that for Hamas (31.4 %). The rate of Fateh’s popularity in Gaza Strip, established at (42.5 %), lies much higher than that of Hamas on its own terrain, reaching namely the rate of (27.8 %).

Again , its a reaction to the Israeli offensive, is it short term or long term. It looks good at first blush but until someone actually tells hamas to stop shooting rockets, if thats even possible, then we are waiting for the next election cycle. Fatah is the other guy and probably has gotten more mature and or media savvy, which is a good thing concidering their roots are not that far off from Hamas, are just looking better by default.

Personally I think the real test is if Hamas loses the next election cycle and does not vacate its position of power, both for the palestian authority and Israel.

Declan

[Sophistry_and_Illusion]

I can’t say I’m too optimistic. First, Hamas has never struck me as being too concerned with public opinion. Second, Palestinians are (quite rightly) showing disenchantment with their leadership, both Hamas and Fatah (when have they had decent leadership?), but I don’t see a credible alternative stepping up to the plate.

[Declan]

@Sophistry_and_Illusion

I can’t say I’m too optimistic. First, Hamas has never struck me as being too concerned with public opinion. Second, Palestinians are (quite rightly) showing disenchantment with their leadership, both Hamas and Fatah (when have they had decent leadership?), but I don’t see a credible alternative stepping up to the plate.

Well to be honest I could live with a bad Fatah govt, they seem to be acting like reasonable people since the beginning(oops eta) of this military offensive, but then Hamas seemed that way when they got elected. Perhaps it might be better looking into setting up a califate in Gaza and running the joint as a city state, dont matter if he is a son of a bitch , as long as he is our son of a bitch.

Declan

[Mtgman]

I’m always suspect of polls like this, especially about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They have lived their entire lives in conflict, they have an “at war” psychology. I can easily see a Palestinian say “I hate Hamas” even if they attend every meeting, send food, and money to Hamas. Why? They don’t want to be identified as a member of Hamas and be bombed.

FWIW, similar poll numbers were present before the 2006 Palestinian legislative election, where Hamas carried over 44% of the vote.

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research polled 1,316 adults in the West bank and Gaza strip in early December 2005 on their voting intentions for the legislative poll, which indicated the following support:[9]

* Fatah: 50%
* Hamas: 32%
* Others: 9%
* Undecided: 9%

A second poll by PCPSR between 29 December - 31 December covered 4560 potential voters and gave the following results:[10]

* Fatah: 43%
* Change and Reform (Hamas): 25%
* Independent Palestine: 5%
* Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa: 3%
* The Alternative: 2%
* The Third Way: 2%
* Undecided: 19%

No other lists were expected to exceed the 2% threshold.

A poll from Palestinian Public Opinion Polls, conducted 5 January and 6 January, covering 1360 persons, shows a further move away from Fatah:[11]

* Fatah 39.3%
* Change and Reform (Hamas): 31.3%
* Independent Palestine: 10.4%
* Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa: 6.8%
* The Third Way: 5.5%

So Hamas trailed Fatah by 8% in the polls right before the elections, but still beat them 44% to 41% in the actual election.

In general I agree there needs to be more outreach to those Palestinians who wish for peace, but given the decades(centuries, millennia) of history of conflict in the region, I find it hard to accept that ~11% of the population is responsible without substantial support from the majority.

Enjoy,
Steven