GDP grew at a 3.5% annual rate in 2018 Q3

The Commerce Department released their quarterly GDP estimate today:

CNBC: The US economy grew at a 3.5% pace in the third quarter, faster than expected

I suspect this fact will get featured in some end-of-the-election-cycle Republicans campaign ads.

Yep, there’s a reason that the Republican party okayed such a huge budget. They wanted to buy the 2018 election.

The Federal budget isn’t just a number on a piece of paper. It’s real money and it actually goes somewhere - generally into American business.

Ummm … what?

If Republicans actually cut spending, they’d be accused of being heartless and cruel to poor people, but since they didn’t do that, now they’re trying to “buy the 2018 election”? Kind of a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t situation it seems.

GDP grows during the boom period of the business cycle. This is when entrepreneurs make clusters of errors when allocating resources. The bust is when this misallocation is revealed to be unsustainable. Beware of sectors where the government is dumping loads of money. Looks like the timing of the business cycle is favorable to Trump this time around.

Even so, it’s pretty bad if you are blessed with GDP growth and still lose seats in congress. It does not bode well for when you are not blessed.

The President’s party almost always loses seats in Congress during the mid-term election. You knew that, right?

No they’ll be accused of that either way. Republicans don’t want to cut spending and the Trump constituency simply doesn’t care about debt. The number of avowed fiscal conservatives in the party has plummeted with the Trump takeover of the party. Even before that, spending exploded under Bush II and Reagan(with a Dem Congress).

The Trump Economy indeed continues to surprise. I hope you continue to post updates on the Trump Economy on a regular basis. Thank you for highlighting the Trump Economy, HD. Trump, being the president, truly owns the Trump Economy and everyone needs to know how the Trump Economy is doing and who is fully responsible for the Trump Economy. Trump. The Trump Economy. The Trump Economy can’t possibly go bad, right? But for better or worse, this is truly the Trump Economy. Trump Economy! Tell your friends about the Trump Economy today! And tell them about the Trump Economy tomorrow! And tell them about the Trump Economy every tomorrow after tomorrow!

It’s almost like Republicans take credit for when things are good and point fingers when it doesn’t. Do any other large political organizations do that?

Whataboutwhataboutwhatabout!

Hey, man, whatabout this Trump Economy!

I’m going to assume you are above partisanship. Have a nice weekend.

It’s almost as if the federal budget is justifiably large and sufficient taxes should be levied to pay for it.

This has me wondering what the Republican map would be looking like right now if the events of Trump’s presidency had been largely the same (Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, tax cuts, leave INF treaty, leave Iran deal) but there had simply been a different person at the helm instead - say, President John Kasich.

A lot of reason the Republicans are faring poorly in the polls is just because of Trump’s persona. If it weren’t for his personality dampening the ballot, Republicans would be in strong position. Strong economy, etc.

When the Republican view of the Federal budget is so schizophrenic, arguing that criticism of it is inconsistent is surely missing the point.

For the last year, Republicans in Washington have held all of these viewpoints near simultaneously:

  • We are spending too much // we must give the military the biggest spending increase you can imagine // now we have to cut defense spending
  • deficits are too high // tax cuts will bring the deficits down // we need more tax cuts
  • we need to cut a deal with Democrats on spending // we will never cut a deal with Democrats on spending
  • we need to cut Medicare by a lot // we must protect Medicare with everything we’ve got

And if R’s want to make campaign ads crowing about 3.5% growth, go for it. Spend tons of money advertising on something so detached from everyday life. Talking about growing jobs is real; talking about GDP is not.

Interesting. So the Trump derangement (and Trump support for that matter) is not a result of his policies, which have been utterly mainstream.

The only non-mainstream action was the Fed rhetoric and maybe the NK meeting.

The Republican position is to be “heartless and cruel” or, more accurately, that it’s not the government’s job to baby you. Yes, the Democrats will spin that as being cruel, but that’s why they’re Democrats. Everyone who’s not a Democrat - which is the majority of the country - is willing to accept the idea of personal responsibility.

And the Republican party won, in 2016, on a platform of non-interventionism. So there’s the whole other half of the budget which is military spending.

So we have a party that doesn’t believe in big government and which intends to stop trying to police the world, and yet is raising the budget for a big government and for more military intervention. And that really only leaves 3 options:

  1. They got played by the Democratic party, somehow.
  2. They’re secretly Democrats.
  3. They’re dumping money into the economy in order to stay in power, because if they actually followed up on their policy positions - particularly with a moron running the government - the economy would surely go to hell.

You are aware there are different factions in the party that say different things? It’s not like the Democrats where the main disagreements are over who is rich and how far the rich must bend over.

I’m a car guy, and aftermarket part manufacturers who rely on metal imports are almost universally raising their prices by 15% to 30%, and are throwing Trump under the bus when they do it. It’s made otherwise apolitical FB groups very miserable at times.

I’d say the trade wars and tariffs, the constantly shitting on NATO allies, pulling out of generally inoffensive global agreements, and constantly fucking up negotiations on things like DACA are pretty well outside of the mainstream.

Let’s not look at this one data point and think that everything in Washington is trucking along nice and smooth.

  1. they’re afraid of Trump who doesn’t believe in fiscal rectitude.
  2. they’re actually still interventionist and have always loved government spending
  3. trump’s takeover is evidence of the low priority the Republican masses assign to fiscal conservatism

The tariffs are very targeted. This is definitely a step up from previous targeted tariffs under Bush II and Obama, but it is a difference in magnitude only. It is not a sea-change in American policy.