GDP grew at a 3.5% annual rate in 2018 Q3

Don’t forget that next year is also the first year people will file their taxes under the new tax law. I suspect the middle class is going to take it in the shorts with fewer things to itemize and an inadequate standard deduction. Much screaming and yelling in the run up to the 2020 election.

The problem is that during the sequester, America basically tentatively committed to a modest but unpleasant diet, and now we’ve decided we’re sick of the diet and gone back to the junk food. That’s the point where you don’t want to hear that you’re making yourself less healthy in the long-term.

Nah. Mitt Romney campaigned on being a successful businessman and small government. He didn’t make an impact. Trump campaigned on being Trump. CruzRubio campaigned on being small government. Nothing happened for them. Fiscal conservatives are few and far between right now.

You guys should probably reconcile this enormous difference in rhetoric. The Democratic partisans are constantly talking out of both sides of their mouths on this issue.

US growth has not reached 3% annual growth for the best part of a decade. Many (if not most) forecasters predict 3% future annual growth to be unsustainable. I am surprised no-one has pulled you up on your figures yet, this being a forum dedicated to fighting ignorance.

:confused: “both sides of their mouths”? They are saying diametrically opposed things at the same time? I’m not seeing it, not in the posts you quoted.

Yes, Obama seemed to basically throw in the towel on even trying to achieve 3% growth.

The NYT, back in 2014, said “The most likely scenario is for the economy to continue to muddle along at an overall annual pace of 2 percent to 2.5 percent.”

“muddle along” is, I think, a good descriptor of the economy under Obama, at least his second term.

So the Republicans agreed with each other on mildly different things in 2012 than they do in 2018.

Okay.

And by 2017, everyone was singing from the new hymnal. Didn’t take long.

Mitt Romney is a career politician. The Republicans who went for Trump don’t like career politicians because they hold them to be liars.

One of the reasons why we’re seeing higher growth now is that Trump and the Republicans are borrowing heavily to boost the economy. Looking at Obama’s second term vs Trump’s first, the deficits were



Year   Obama   Trump       Trump Increase (Decrease)
1      679      665        ($14 billion)
2      485      779      +$294 billion
3      438      984      +$546 billion
4      585      ...


Don’t you think that if Obama had borrowed $546 billion and injected it into the economy that growth would have exceeded 2%? It’s pretty easy to have a soaring economy if someone else is paying for it.

Elections are won and lost on the economy and Republicans are successfully painting the stock market, low unemployment and growth like they’re pulling off some financial wizardry. If the Democrats start publicizing all this deficit spending to show that there really is nothing behind the curtain other than a willingness to blow up the national debt they might be able to actually turn fiscal conservatives against the Republicans. Things like the debt are far more important to them than social issues or ‘character’.

Obama DID borrow hundreds of billions and inject it into the economy. He did NOT turn that into 3% growth though.

Before I say the obvious, why not let you do it? Tell us about the differences you see between inheriting the 2008 economy and the 2016 one. Also, what direction was the deficit moving in each time and why?

Either 2010-2016 was a GOP economy or an Obama economy.

Plus you specifically mentioned Obama’s second term (2013-2016) not 2009. In fact, considering the additional $546 billion Trump borrowed is 2.8% of the GDP by itself, it’s pretty sad GDP growth was only 1% higher than Obama’s.

The deficit was going up in both cases. Obviously the economy was better in 2016 than 2008.

CBO from Jan 2016

He turned an economy shedding about 750,000 private sector jobs per month into one creating about 200,000 private sector jobs per month. Trump has taken an economy creating about 200,00 private sector jobs per month and turned it into one creating about 200,000 private sector jobs per month. Here’s a graph I made from BLS data that nicely illustrates this.

Understand the difference?

I should add that Obama (and GW Bush at the end of his term) stimulated the economy, growing the deficit, when it was necessary to do so because there was a huge contraction in demand. Trump is ballooning the deficit during a time in the economic cycle when there is no justification to do this…except, I suppose, if you want to create a few quarters of inflated GDP growth before the shit hits the fan.

This thread is about GDP, not jobs statistics. Understand the difference?

Most of the “ballooning” of the deficit was baked in before President Trump was elected.