Just in my lifetime, I’ve seen Bangladesh break off from Pakistan; Vietnam and Germany reunite, and the USSR, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia break up into…what…20 countries? Not to mention renames (Ceylon and Burma are gone) and former colonies becoming independent.
So if we look, say, 50 years in the future, what changes in the map will we see – if every ethnic separatist/self-determination movement succeeds; if every arbitrary political line is erased?
Some candidates:
Palestine
Kurd homeland (Kurdistan)
Basque homeland (Euzkadia, or something like that?)
Independent Chechnya
Reunited Ireland
Reunited Korea
Taiwan incorporated into mainland China
Sikh homeland
An Islamic Filipino state?
Tamil state in Sri Lanka?
Any others? (Belarus and Russia merging?) Which of these are most/least likely?
I’d lay some decent odds that within 100 years at least one Canadian province will be independent of Canada. And also that at least one Canadian or Mexican or Caribbean nation will elect to join the United States.
Ah, right … I forgot about Quebec. Although that’s looking less likely than it once did.
And on the far wacko end of likeliness, there’s the Aztlan/California-back-to-Mexico movement.
Rather than merging with China, I’d guess that Taiwan will finally forfeit all claim on the mainland and declare independence.
Some other guesses:
Macau returns to China
Puerto Rico votes to join the Union
United States of Europe
Cyprus reunited
Long shots:
Texas asserts its right to break up into five states
Scotland breaks off from England
It’s a temptation to think some tiny little countries will unite, but I think the trend to separate is stronger. I’ll make a guess, though, that Korea will be reunited in the next 50 years or so.
I’d also bet that there will be some borders redrawn in the Balkans and central Europe, even if all the countires stay the same.
More likely, though, we’ll see more semi-autonomous ethnic homelands or self-contained economic units that are still technically a part of a larger country.
Macau is already part of China, isn’t it?
:smack: You’re right! I must have missed the memo.
See? It’s hard to keep up already!
The state of Southern California. Capital: San Bernardino.