How Much Further Can Europe be Divided

Factual Questions
1

Was thinking about the Peacekeeping troops in Kosovo and was thinking most likely Kosovo will seperate from Yugoslavia.

Now I read the Bosnian Croats are not happy sharing with the Bosnian Moslems and want their own state like the Bosnian Serbs.

What other divisions are possible for Europe. I can see Montenegro splitting off. Scotland from Great Britian, maybe the Basques from Spain. Belgium going into French and Dutch states.

How much further can we divide it?

What seperatist movements are serious. Like I hear tell of Wales but all I read about it say it isn’t no where near serious enuff to happen

2

Slight correction: the Bosnian Serbs (like the croats and the muslims) are still part of the state Bosnia-Hercegovina.

Other serious options: Corsica leaving France, Italy being split into North and South states, South-Tyrol (Italy) becoming independent or reunited with Austria. Moldavia might be divided between Romania and Russia.

3

'Kay, if we’re talking hypotheticals (IMHO, anyone?), let’s toss Cyprus into the mix.

4

There are a lot of Catalonians who would be happy to hive their region off from Spain (an independent Catalonia would have a much higher GDP per capita than Spain does).

Hungarians in Transylvania (Romania) would love to rejoin Hungary, as would those in Vojvodina (northern Serbia), though these are more redistribution than plain splitting.

Less likely: Bretons in France, Albanians in Macedonia (but not for lack of trying), Gaguaz (ethnic Turks) in Moldova and Bulgaria.

supremely unlikely: the Wendish/Sorbians in eastern Germany, who would definitely win the prize for least-known ethnic group in Europe

5

How much further? It’s theoretically possible that Europe could be divided into 100s or even 1000s of small states. Italy and Germany weren’t even singular states until quite recently. They were collections of small kingdoms, republics and city states. Going back further, France and the UK, at various times, haven’t really been integrated countries.

Here’s a short list of some areas or peoples seeking independence or autonomy, active (at some point in the recent past) on the web: Belarus, Britanny, Cornwall, Galicia, Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Corsica, Flanders, Gibraltar, Lombardia, Padania, Venice, Sardinia, Sicily, Moravia, Silesia, Normandy, Savoy, the Sami, and the Basque.

6

[nitpick]
That would be Northern Ireland.
[/nitpick]

7

Ummmm, and Belarus actually is alreday an independent country (who ironically have been flirting with Russia to become part of Russia).

8

For those not in the know: before 1830, this is how it was. Roughly, Flanders belonged to the Netherlands, and Walonie belonged to France. And if it weren’t for the European Union, I’d say the hypothesis that Belgium will not exist 100 years from now would be pretty accurate. I don’t think it will happen under the current circumstances, though.

As the inhabitants of the country say: “The only true Belgian is the King”.

9

Depends about what you mean by separation, autonomy, sovereignty etc.

There are many regions of the UK that would like to see more autonomy because the national policies seem to be geared toward one region and one part of the UK economy and these are held by many to be damaging our manufacturing industries.

Italy has a similar situation where parts of the industrialised north have formed their own political movements whose aims range between autonomy through to separate statehood.(The somethingorother league)

Self-rule is not necessarily sovereignty for example the Isle of Man has about as much self-rule and autonomy as it is possible to have but in the international arena it is represented by the UK and actual sovereignity is greyish in the sense that passports are not required by UK citizens to go there but the UK is responsible for its security.

The closer integration of the European Union has meant that the Nationalistic imperatives of many European nations are less important.
There are small regions with distinct identities of their own, historically and in customs and language, but these were supressed by the parent state in its need for national unity in the face of threats from other states.

The European Act states that peoples and individuals have a right to self-expression and this is being interpreted in a number of differant ways depending upon whichever side of the myriad disputes the observer is on.

Looking at a wider picture with tax harmonisation, legal and economic convergance, power seems to be gravitating toward the EU where the bigger players such as France, UK, Germany operate more to try and change things in their favour in other European states in a way that was not possible before.

This in turn makes the EU parliament a more powerful body and slowly the power or the governments of EU nations seems to diminish.

What might happen in the long long term future is that the current EU nations either pull out of the EU to hang on to their national sovereignty which is unlikely in the forseable future or that the same nations will become the equivalent of US states where there is a local National government and a Europewide Federal one.

With the state being of much reduced importance local identities and petty nationalism may find a suitable arena.

10

That’s not actually true as stated. All of what is now Belgium was part of the United Netherlands between 1815 and 1831. Before 1815, Wallonie did indeed for a while belong to France, as did Flanders and Holland :). But the existing boundary between Belgium and France is substantially the same since the French gave up their claim in the early 16th century.

To address the OP, further boundary changes in Europe are very improbable, with the exception of the former Yugoslav territory. As Markxxx said, the Muslim-Croat confederation is not a very stable entity. Kosovo may secede, as may Montenegro. Macedonia could conceivably be broken up. That’s about it.