Snap election to come. Caretaker government for now. I fear the far right will end up as kingmaker.
France, South Korea, the list of previously stable governments in highly developed countries falling into disarray, and yes I include the United States here, is getting long.
I’m not sure what of what it means nor what it portends, and am tempted to keep my head buried in the sand for now.
Well, it certainly portends the collapse of the “global order” that both neocons and advocates of neoliberalism have espoused for the last 35 years, factionalization within pan-national alliances, competition for increasingly scarce or expensive energy resources, a likely massive reduction if not collapse of global trade (although regional trade will continue because so very few “developed” nations actually have the resources and industrial/agricultural base to sustain their needs), and even more persecution of immigrants and subjugation and corruption of nations rich in mineral and energy resources but poor in infrastructure, industry, and the cash reserves or tax base necessary for stable internal development; essentially, a return to a pre-WWI global arrangement of powers, only with multiple nations with the ability to engage in conflict in the space and nuclear weapon domains, global telecommunications o allow information (and misinformation) to travel more quickly, and the potentially existential threat to industrial society (and realizable existential to many island and dense coastal nations) of global climate change that literally no one in power is actually taking any effective measures to mitigate.
Fwew, that was a long sentence. Anyway, nothing good even if you assume the worst possible things (nuclear war, indefinite denial of space orbital access, mass migration and famine) don’t occur within the foreseeable future.
Stranger
FYI the German government called and lost the no-confidence vote on purpose to trigger an early election. It’s not close to being same fiasco as in France.
You mean when Macron called an early election on purpose and his party lost badly?
My take is that it is a very similar thing. The fellows in the German government bed could not sleep together. It came to head during a budget impasse. In both countries the Far Right has been gaining ground.
Details vary but the result is much the same. The largest pillars of stability and even leadership in the EU are neither very stable nor able to lead well. And it isn’t only in the EU. America is minimally repositioning itself. Instability often emboldens bad actions.
To my knowledge Macron didn’t think he had a chance of maintaining his coalition in the election - he gambled (successfully) on being able to limit how many seats the far-right could pick up, giving the other parties more time and democratic legitimacy instead of letting the far right run things. It may still fail as thy haven’t been able to form a stable coalition even so.
That was not how I heard it explained at the time.
Interesting that this happened less than two weeks after the French government fell, so instability in the two largest countries in the EU by population.
I don’t follow German politics, but this is much in contrast to the very long period Merkel was the German leader.
Moderating:
Since we already have an open thread on this topic, let’s combine this one with that one.
Are we entering a true conservative period or just a reaction to the parties in power, which happened to be mostly liberal? Britain’s destruction of the Conservative party hints that the latter might be true.
Liberals might take solace if we are in a reactionary period rather than a period dominated by reactionaries, but if that leads to governments switching between sides every few years as the public throws the rascals out that bodes uncertainty that has its own dangers.
It is my opinion that we’re seeing a revolt of (mostly) the working class due to the fact that in all the developed world corporations and very rich people seem to control everything, while it’s no longer possible for most people with only high school to live a middle class life.
People are really angry, and I think a lot of us don’t see it. I’ve watched as people who were just fine with gay marriage turn against all LGBTQ issues. And in all cases the path was the same: They were attracted to the populist economic message, became immersed in the space, and over time the cultural message started to change them.
There is definitely a driving undercurrent of anger, fear, and dread in the recent populist rejections of the middle class, and some significant component of this is economic (as in employment, cost-of-living, housing, and post-secondary educational access in the developed world) but I think there is also a more general stress about how the world seems generally at threat from both international conflicts and increasingly evident ecological catastrophes; even for people who don’t follow these issues or ‘believe’ in pollution impacts and climate change, the background sense that things are really going much worse than political leaders want to admit is evident. The 2020-2021 pandemic made clear just how little control or direction the governments of leading national powers have in response to what was a pretty minor pandemic (in the overall scheme of natural epidemic threats), and the amount of conspiranoia arising from this is really just an attempt to ascribe some kind of deliberate plan to what was really incompetence and a failure of communication and consensus, which is what people do when faced with uncertainty; try to find a pattern of behavior—even one that is malevolent—to which can be ascribed some measure of control.
The attacks on LGBTQ people, and immigrants (particularly refugees), any other powerless group that can be easily singled out is the classic attack of authoritarians and especially would-be fascists as a cure-all that actually accomplishes nothing positive but creates a channel to control fear and rage, diverting it away from the leadership which is incapable of doing anything to actually address the real problems without acknowledging culpability or ceding some measure of power to a broader coalition of people. The ‘culture wars’ are just manufactured bullshit to create an artificial “Us vs. Them” dichotomy and shut down and distract from more nuanced discussion about real issues.
Stranger
An update on the aftermath of the German governing coalition parting ways:
16 Dec 2024: Chancellor triggers new elections by asking for a vote of confidence and not getting it.
23 Feb 2025: New federal elections 2025 German federal election - Wikipedia
The outcome means that there is only one possible two-party coalition (CDU/CSU+SPD) with a majority in parliament. (Mathematically a CDU/CSU + AfD coalition would also be possible, but politically it would be beyond the pale. Fortunately.)
Crucially, in the new parliament a two-thirds majority, needed to amend the Constitution, is impossible without votes from either Die Linke or AfD.
As the old parliament was still in office pending the opening session of the new parliament, the recent Trumpian developments goaded CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens to form an impromptu coalition in the old parliament, and reconvene the old Bundestag to pass a constitutional amendment on 18 March authorising more borrowing for defence spending, and also authorise € 500 billion borrowing to finance investment in infrastructure over the next 10 years.
The Greens, who will be in opposition in the new parliament, really came through for the national interest here.
The new Bundestag convened on 25 March; Chancellor Scholz and his cabinet of Social Democrats and Greens were formally dismissed by the President and at the same time appointed by him in a caretaker capacity, pending the election of the new Chancellor.
The parties of the future governing coalition (CDU and SPD) have been in intensive talks over the last weeks. The 256 negotiators in 16 committees have delivered their results to the party leaderships, which will negotiate further. The result will be a coalition agreement to be voted on by CDU, CSU and SPD separately - I await the password for the SPD online ballot within the next few days.
CDU, CSU and SPD will probably elect Friedrich Merz (of the CDU) as Chancellor shortly before or after Easter. Until that vote in parliament Olaf Scholz continues to represent Germany as caretaker Chancellor (but does not have the votes for any legislation that is at all controversial).
Very informative @Mops. Thanks for that.
Is it a necessity that the Greens be “opposition”? While they’re not necessary for the coalition, wouldn’t it still be possible for them to join it anyway? Or are they choosing not to do that, so that, despite agreeing with the Government on some issues, they’ll still be free to take their own position on others?
German governing coalitions have to date been composed of as few parties as needed to assemble a majority in parliament. The 2021-2024 “traffic light” coalition was doomed from the start by having three parties with different ideological DNA (SPD+Greens+FDP) at the cabinet table. Friedrich Merz would only invite the Greens into a “Kenya coalition” (black/red/green) if “black/red” did not have a majority.
That said, the majority of legislation introduced in the Bundestag is so uncontroversial that reasonable opposition parties also vote for it. Also, to get legislation passed in the Bundesrat (the state chamber, which has to approve any federal legislation to be executed by state civil servants), the federal governing coalition also needs to reach out to parties who are in opposition on the federal level but in government on the state level.
Shouldn’t this be Centre-right?
Yep, I’m sure @Mops mistyped. All the rest he posted is spot on. The center-left parties in the current Bundestag are the SPD (Social Democrats) and, arguably, the Greens (though far-right people including parts of the CDU like to paint them as far-left bogeymen, which is bullshit).
Yes, sorry. The Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) are center-right (with CSU for Bavarian local colour). They are neither in favour of capitalism red in tooth and claw, nor of theocracy though.
Nobody in the German political sector with a sound mind is in favor of theocracy, because that totally counters the demographics and the wish of the people. Religion per se is very rarely a point in political debates, and politicians are reluctant to express religious thoughts or feelings because most of the public would find this tacky.
A great write-up, @mops.
The FDP has been circling the 5% drain off & on both nationally at the state level. I’ve always disliked them, but particularly after the brief deal with the AfD in Thueringen…glad to see them continue to fail.