Given my situation, should I replace my natural gas furnace with a heat pump?

Other than the upfront cost which I think will be largely mitigated by government rebates, what’s the downside?

Researching tells me:

Gas and electricity is expensive here (Santa Barbara) but probably equally expensive. That said, I am probably putting in solar panels next year so electricity will be significantly cheaper.

The coldest it ever gets here is occasionally down to the low 30s F in the middle of the night in the winter. There are maybe five to ten days a year maximum when I wished I had air conditioning so not worth it for an entire AC system but I get it as a bonus with the heat pump. It never gets significantly humid or dry here.

My current furnace is in a closet in the foyer of my house and it’s annoying loud. I understand that the outside units are fairly quiet.

We almost never have power outages and my gas furnace needs electricity to run anyway.

Am I missing anything? I’m not seeing a downside.

If you go for it and you get solar panels, you’ll be moving from fossil fuel to renewable energy. That was the metric we used when we bought a plug-in hybrid car after getting our solar panels.

In your shoes, I’d be very tempted if the furnace were older and/or the tax credits for a heat pump system were likely to expire soon.

I am no expert, but from my limited understanding you seem like a perfect candidate. We have a minisplit system, mainly for air conditioning, and kept our boiler for radiative heat and hot water, because here on the North Shore of Boston the winters can get cold enough to make heat pumps inefficient.

If you go to YouTube and search on “technology connections heat pump” you’ll find a whole bunch of videos about the benefits of heat pumps. Alec is a major booster for them.

Here’s one to get you started.

https://youtu.be/43XKfuptnik?si=WBlt598li_bF1qGD/?

I recently purchased an EV and charge at home. This sent me down the path. I was thinking of an electric heater and then learned about heat pumps and am very intrigued.

I’d still be on gas for my range, water heater/recirculation system and clothes dryer.

When you spec out your solar system, if your footprint is large enough, consider sizing it so that you can switch all these over to electric as well.

I will definitely do that except for the range. I will always cook with gas.

There is no downside for your situation, and some additional upsides that you haven’t even considered (from your post, at least), including potential variability in gas prices, indoor air quality from even small gas leaks, and the maintenance costs and longevity of a heat pump versus a gas furnace. The major downsides of a heat pump are the limitations at temperature extremes which is not an issue for you.

I used to be a gas-only cook, too, but the convenience and control of induction ‘burners’ is so much better (as well as safer and easier to clean) that it is worth considering putting in an induction range and oven. One of the major sources of indoor contamination, aside from a furnace, is the range top burner, so unless you have a kitchen with very good ventilation it is something to consider. The only real downside is that you have to use ferrous cookware but since I’ve switched almost everything to cast iron and carbon steel it is not an issue, and the rare cases that I need to do a big boil, I have a portable propane burner that I set up outside.

Stranger

Thanks in general. I was looking forward to you weighing in. I just remodeled my kitchen last year and spent a lot of money on a top end gas range and new cookware to go with it. I get your point but not gonna happen. :slight_smile:

I’m not sure how your natural gas breaks down there, but here we are charged for consumption, delivery, and admin charges. I’m currently using NG for my boiler, hot water, oven, bbq, and fireplace. My heat pumps are used generally 3 seasons and the boiler in the winter.

As my NG use goes down, the other uses become more expensive as the non-usage elements are fixed each month. I expect my next boiler will be an air-to-water heat pump and it would make sense to move the other loads off NG at the same time and close my account.

During the summer when the furnace isn’t used, my gas bill is less than $40. We had a cold for us winter. My gas bills were between $200 and $250.

Well, that’s understandable, and aesthetically I prefer to cook on gas. But it is something you might bear in mind for the future.

Stranger

You can also get gas/induction combos. At least one friend of mine has one in her kitchen.

See:

For sure you would want those in a well ventilated area, as has already been said.

Yeah I know. But I’m 60 years old and the damage is done, I don’t have pilot lights, the fittings are newly installed and tight and I have a strong vent fan. Not really worried.

As @Stranger_On_A_Train said, great aesthetics.

I’ve had a ground-linked (aka ‘geothermal’) heat pump since 2008. It’s in my basement and not particularly loud. In addition to handling heating and cooling, it preheats the water going into my water heater, saving a little energy since the heater then only has to take the water from lukewarm up to hot.

Do it. Keep your gas furnace in case electricity becomes more expensive or gas eventually costs less. You should get unit that provides heat and A/C. You should have ductwork already but it’s possible a ductless split system will be practical and preferable.

The A/C may be more of a necessity in the future, while your heat requirements might become even more minimized or disappear altogether. We all hope that isn’t something that happens rapidly if it happens at all.

About a year and a half ago I replaced my AC and gas furnace with a heat pump, and I am very happy with it. I’m in NorCal, so a similar climate to yours (but I’m inland, so much hotter in the summer). It does a fine job heating in the winter; honestly, I don’t even notice a difference from the old furnace in terms of being able to maintain a comfortable temperature.

My total cost for both gas and electricity during the winter is probably a bit lower now than with the gas furnace, but I am on SMUD which I believe has some of the cheapest electric rates in the state. Your costs may vary.

From what I have seen the answer lies in the math.

You really need to sit down, probably with professional help (and not the people who want to sell you a system) and do the math on this.

They are a very neat technology but it is expensive and installation can be expensive. Your ROI can also depend on rebates and incentives where you live and can vary a lot from place to place.

At the end of it all there will be an upfront cost and a time in the future where you can expect to break even if you changed nothing.

Then only you can decide if it makes sense for you to do.

I guess you can also apply the value to being “green” and better for the environment. That has value too but is subjective.