Golf: are we truly in the Age of Parity now?

[Split off from the main PGA thread]

I read something recently which indicated something pretty astonishing: of the last 40 men’s major winners, only a small percentage have won 1+ more. Now, that may continue only so long as another player of Tiger’s or Jack’s calibre doesn’t appear (and win their 2nd major, or more), but instead it may be heralding a new era of parity in the sport.

In Ben Hogan’s era (c. 1948-1954), the top 50 talent probably was distributed like this (Hogan on top, Sam Snead right next to him), let’s assume we’re talking a difference in .20 strokes per round true talent):

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In Jack’s (1963-1980), I think you could probably model it like this (the other “+” next to Jack’s would be his Rival of the Moment, be it Arnie, Trevino, or Watson). The next level would consist of the likes of Johnny Miller, Billy Casper, and Hale Irwin et al.:

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++++++++++
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+++++++++++++++

During Tiger’s run, we might have had this:

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+++++++++
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++++++++++++

Now, it might be more like this (note only 5 rows now that Tiger has come back to the field):

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+++++++++
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And maybe I could delete the bottom row too: point is the difference between the top and bottom players has shrunk drastically I’d say, such that dozens of players have a realistic shot at a major, with dozens others with a long shot at worst. Given the influx of international players on the scene, perhaps this shouldn’t be too surprising. I can’t say whether this trend will continue of course, and all it takes is that one curve-shattering talent to show up and blow all other comers away, but it may be awhile before such a person appears.

I think we are finally getting to the point I expected to hit a few years ago, but got delayed for some reason.

There just really were not that many people who took up golf as kids. most people took it up in their 20’s or 30s when there really wasn’t that much time to get to elite level before skill started to fall off.

But ever since Tiger showed up you have tons of kids at the range hitting balls every week, because daddy wants to make a superstar.Tiger was a kid who happened to posses the genes to be a great player, and managed to get started very early honing his skills, so was dominant. And I think the larger pool of people starting earlier is starting to even things out. With 20 times as many people starting young, there are more folks who will eventually end up with elite level bodies get a chance to find that out in time.

It is more international too. A golfer from China broke the course record today. Golfers come from everyplace.

The PGA Tour is in a bit of an awkard reloading stage right now. Of course, Tiger crashing to earth is a sea change, even more so because it was so shockingly sudden. But don’t forget, too, that during his reign pretty much all the old champs (Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, Greg Norman, John Daly, Seve Ballesteros, etc.) faded out, while countless challengers like David Duval and Sergio Garcia bombed out after a depressingly brief periods of greatness. So basically, for the last couple years or so, our only respite from Tigermania was either Phil Mickelson stepping it up (even more of a crapshoot then than it is now) or a sentimental favorite like Angel Cabrera having his One Shining Moment.

The upshot is that while we have lots of young players who could become the sport’s next stars, we have no idea who they’re going to be. Remember that golf is unique among sports for no two playing fields ever being the same, not to mention changing course conditions, an absolutely unforgiving scoring system, and pure dumb luck. It’s tough to win a golf tournament, and it’s incredibly tough to win consistently, something we have seen innumerable times.

On top of that, right now we don’t even know how what qualifies as stellar. We’re going to have to get used to a lesser grade of champion, and unless there’s a real breakthrough somewhere, there could be 20 guys each tournament who could realistically be considered contenders.

I do think that there will be a new big name eventually. But it’s going to take a while, and he’s got a lot of work to do before he’s worthy of the crown.

As for the world rankings, they’re based on the past two years, so we’re not going to see a shakeup anytime soon. I’d be very impressed if Louis Oosthuisen even cracked the top 10 by the end of 2011, much less flirted with overtaking Mickelson.

Oosthuisen’s win probably was the exception, not the rule (note he missed the PGA cut). What we just saw yesterday is likely to be golf’s future: a final round where a dozen players could win, and nobody will (likely) charge out to an insurmountable lead.