The US Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Department of Energy, forecast back in 2005 that US carbon emissions would continue a sharp rise for the foreseeable future, rising 37% by 2025. Well, they have revisited the topic in a pending 2012 report, in light of changes to technology, law, and markets, and they are now forecasting that US carbon emissions will be flat, and in fact will drop 3% between now and 2035. Other expected changes in the law are likely to drive that number lower.
The only problem is, other countries are doing more than their share in making up any reductions in the U.S.: Carbon Emissions Show Biggest Jump Ever Recorded
That was for 2010, but I don’t expect 2011 to be any lower, if not such a big increase, plus CO2 levels are already about 40 ppm too high (i.e. not only do emissions need to be cut to zero, CO2 levels need to be reduced as well, at the very least, the first has to happen).
Also, the U.S. is increasingly exporting fossil fuels like coal (if nobody in the U.S. wants it, then it will go to China or someplace else, just as the Keystone Pipeline being cancelled doesn’t mean much for the tar sands). Not just the U.S.; Australia creates far more CO2 emissions through exported coal than they do at home (and rapidly increasing). But hey, they can claim to be reducing emissions.
Natural gas may also not be as clean as some say and it still generates CO2).
That’s all true, certainly, but this still seems like reason for optimism. The factors you cite were largely true in 2005, too, and US emissions were going to go through the roof. Now at least that figure seems to be headed in the right direction.
And the size of the swing suggests that reductions may be achievable with less difficulty than might have been imagined. (It also might suggest something about the robustness of the EIA’s forecasting ability, I realize).