I’ve got to admit, I don’t know a lot about Kurzweil beyond his name and that he has big visions for the way society interacts with technology, but this certainly seems like a great, synergistic hire by Google. Can’t wait to see what comes of it.
Yeah, I’ve thought this guy’s predictions were bullshit since I first heard about the so-called “singularity”. But I know far less about his other qualifications. Perhaps he’s legitimately an expert in the current state of artificial intelligence, even if his predictions for the future are wildly optimistic. (I’m reminded of Michio Kaku, who so far as I know is a legitimate expert on string theory who for whatever reason spends his free time encouraging us to believe warp drive and time travel are just around the corner.)
I’m not quite that hard on him. I think he’s a bright guy whose intellectual reach finally exceeded his grasp. On the singularity issue, I concur with Paul Allen.
Ray Kurzweil is a hell of a scientist. He’s a bit of a Pollyanna on the futurist front, but when you get down to it he knows more about pattern matching than pretty much anyone on the planet. He has an absolute gift for it. The problem of AI is a problem of pattern recognition, specifically pattern recognition driving decision-making to produce other outcomes. At this point you take a partial pattern and use it to predict future events. We can see this in human development as babies begin to anticipate repeated events(like peek-a-boo). Babies developing the higher level thinking of “I know what’s about to happen” or “I know that reflection is actually me and I can move my hand to grab something I see in a reflection” are them developing this pattern recognition facility. Chains of events linked to patterns you can recognize drive much of human behavior.
I don’t think some of his predictions about “the singularity” are particularly worthy of respect, but you gotta give the man props for his ability to design pattern matching machines. It’s when he tries to find patterns in human rates of innovation and breakthroughs and extrapolate from them that I think he falls short. But on the concrete “how do I get a computer to understand this and act on it” he’s very nearly peerless.
Google wants AI, the only “I” we know of is a function of our massively capable pattern matching machines in our heads. The man who has had the most success with creating pattern matching in hardware is a natural fit for Google’s ambition.
A “hell of a scientist” who takes 150 vitamin pills a day, believes in cryonics, published three complete pseudoscience (and likely dangerous) “nutrition” books, and is an all-around whackadoodle.[sup]1[/sup]
He is one of these head-in-the-cloud guys, like Noam Chomsky, who is utterly convinced of his own genius in myriad disciplines because he has had some legitimate success in one narrowly-defined field.