Which of this last crop’s field of wishful thinkers and speculated might jump ins will try again?
Agreed that the GOP has a structural issue - midterms and primaries are a base gauntlet for a contender to get through. A filter with teeth. Many who would appeal to the critical mass of moderates and swing voters either do not pass through the filter or get very damaging squeezing through. Even with his cash load and organization well in place ahead of time and no one else of real consequence to have to run against Romney merely ran out of not-Romneys standing.
How does a more principled candidate with views that appeal to enough moderates and swings make it through that process? They’ll need similar amounts of cash and organization. That contender therefore is starting now. A more moderate candidate off the radar now without the cash and organization in place by 1 year from now making it through the process? Doubt. A busload of contenders for the votes of the “true conservatives” … sure, and one might be the last rat standing (apologies to Silva).
I’m betting some serious war chest building for Rubio is in progress and that he will be the one to beat. Christie first has to finish up winning his Governorship again and can then decide if he will join in. I honestly don’t think he has the burning desire for it.
Yes, just heard that on MSNBC as I was typing. Oh, I didn’t realize that (from your cite):
“Jindal, a Brown Graduate and Rhodes Scholar, is already a favorite of conservative intellectuals…”
Emphasis added. Of course smarts is no guarantee of success. I still say Mitt Romney was plenty smart. Stanford, Harvard (dual Law and Business degree), and that didn’t help him. Jindal, though, has a much more compelling biography. Mitt was just some really, really rich guy in the end.
I’m having trouble digesting that phrase. “conservative intellectual”? You mean there are some?
Seriously, you’re getting Santorum. I think the 2012 run was just to get his name out there for 2016. He’ll start 2016 with name recognition plus he won’t get zapped by the Romney Death Star. Hillary will beat him senseless and maybe, just maybe, by 2020 the Republicans will rejoin the human race.
As many as there are liberal intellectuals.
What about Nikki Haley? Certainly not an old white guy and she is a TeaBagger (dammit!). I predicted in some thread a few months ago that if we lost, Pub leadership would say it’s because we’re not crazy-ass right enough. I hate being right.
She’s just a silly little thing. South Carolina must be in wonderful shape, since she found the time to force each and every state employee to answer each and every phone call by saying “It’s a beautiful day in South Carolina”. With such a keen eye for issues of importance, how could she lose?
Are you kidding? Conservatives have railed against intellectuals as the liberal elite for decades. Intellectualism and conservatism are mutually incompatible.
I think the GOP knows they can’t just send in the next “it’s my turn now” candidate in 2016. I’m not even sure who that would be, but it certainly isn’t Santorum. I also can’t see Jeb Bush getting much traction.
This articlepoints out a couple potential candidates from Ohio. Governer John Kasich and Senator Rob Portman. Of the two, Portman seems more qualified to me, but probably wouldn’t kick up much enthusiasm. Kasich has the charisma, but is more likely to beclown himself at some point during a long campaign.
Let’s step back and look at the big picture. Imagine it’s 2016- the economic recovery started picking up steam in 2013 and unemployment is down to say 6%. Due to the recovery and the end of some Bush-era tax breaks and the end to the Afghan war, the deficit is now a shadow of its former self. Obamacare has been implemented, with nary a death panel in sight and millions of formerly uninsured now have coverage. Against that backdrop, what would constitute a viable GOP candidate? I don’t think there is such a thing. If I had to bet, they’ll go hard right and get thumped. Of course the alternative would be to go moderate and get thumped.
Jeb Bush has a latina wife, was popular as governor of Florida, and has name recognition. Maybe the ticket will be Christie/Rubio if Jeb isn’t interested in running.
I would argue against a reduced deficit. If Congress has proven anything, it is that no matter who is in charge the deficit will grow and I believe that $1T is the new standard and wouldn’t count on it going below that. I am not so sure the Afghan War will be over in 2014 as promised.
The Tea Party was a good indicator of a viable candidate. Remember that TP was very popular as a fiscal-based party until it got hijacked by the nutters on the right. If we throw up a fiscal conservative that can present a comprehensive financial plan that is not blind tax cuts but is also not the neo-Keynesian spending but rather tax increases where appropriate (capital gains as income and corporate taxes are the two big ones) and reduced spending to pre-Bush2 levels along with being a social moderate on issues like SSM, abortion, education, etc. then that candidate will be very viable.
Too bad we couldn’t have thrown support behind Jon Huntsman. That dude seriously seems to have his shit together. Alas, I don’t see him being able to get into the White House or on the ticket. Intelligance has no standing in the republican party right now.
Here’s my list of sixteen who will test the waters in no particular order (actually alphabetically):
Bush
Christie
Cuccinelli
Daniels
Haley
Jindal
Kasich
Martinez
McDonnell
Paul (Rand not RuPaul)
Portman
Rubio
Ryan
Santorum
Trump (I kid)
Walker
It’s just a coincidence that it makes up 13 plus 3 alternates for the Celebrity Death Pool 2013;)
I don’t know. He can be associated with the whole rape/abortion thing that seems to be the downfall of Republicans. I don’t know that the voters in 2016 are going to vote in a far right, socially conservative type like him. But I could be wrong.
He’s put his chips in the game. Four days ago, he filed to seek an office in Texas. The particular office is unknown, but perhaps the Texas General Land Office based on his enthusiasm during a previous visit.
After that, something in state or more likely federal legislature, and he’d be on the fast track for a 2020 or more likely 2024 run where he’d be 43 or 47 – which is still youthful in presidential terms.