Who’s going to be the GOP nominee in 2016?
Rick Santorum. It’s his turn.
pleasepleaseplease
Jeb Bush.
(I guessed him for 2012 originally and was wrong about that, so I’m doubling down.)
Some Gay, black and/or hispanic woman.
Some ideologically pure “movement conservative” nut who wins the Republican primary and gets annihilated in the general election, I suspect. Four years is a long time in politics of course, but right now the Republicans seem to be leaning towards explaining their losses as “we weren’t conservative enough!”
What about his son? He’s half-Mexican.
Wait six months and see who is visiting Iowa.
Why wait?
It’s way too soon to say. I agree the Iowa trip suggests Rubio is interested. There’s reason to think Chris Christie will make a run since he thought about it this year. But it’s too soon to have a real idea who could win (although I don’t think it’s too early to say Santorum has no chance). We’ll have to see what the big issues are as a the campaign approaches. But it does make sense to say that a moderated position on immigration and better outreach to Latinos could make Rubio intriguing to some voters.
I expect that Republicans are going to go balls to the wall with making sure they don’t nominate another old white guy. I expect Rubio, honestly.
What about Paul Ryan? I mean his marathon times are shit, but he’s mental on pro-life?
We’ll see. Ryan didn’t do too much for Romney in the end, did he? A week or two ago stories started coming out suggesting he might quit Congress and teach or something instead of getting forced into a bunch of difficult votes that could be attacked in 2016. The economy in 2015-16 is not going to be what it is now. Are they going to campaign on big spending cuts even though that didn’t seem to be a winning issue?
I’d say that the three most probable choices at the moment are Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, or Chris Christie, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that it could be someone who’s totally off the radar screen at the moment.
Hey! My “bright side” of a possible Rmoney victory was that it meant Santorum wouldn’t be in position in 2016 to ride a popular-vote pendulum swing back into the White House!
Let me be sad that it’s now possible again!
Oh well, the corrupt sap has four years, he has time to get in some giant financial scandal and ruin his chance.
But yeah, barring such a scandal, Santorum looks like the candidate of the religious right, and of a GOP that looks like today’s GOP. That means he’s the obvious choice at this point, because what’s the point of being conservative if you aren’t resistant to reform?
I’m a Republican who’s been unhappy with the far Right of the party for awhile now, so I would love to see this happen, just to teach the far Right a huge lesson. And he/she has to be totally trounced by the popular vote, not just the Electoral Vote.
I still keep imagining that the Republicans will be at least animal-cunning enough to change strategies that don’t work, so how about this: 2014 is it for the old-fashioned Religious Right. Make or Break time. If the Old White Dudes can’t come through in the mid-terms, in 2016 the Republicans will woo the Conservative Hispanic vote and whatever Tea Partiers are still alive can pound sand.
On the other hand, if 2014 brings a few new House and Senate seats, maybe even a Senate majority, the Gerontocracy holds on for another cycle and 2016 sees another Romney-Like Humanoid get fed to the grinder.
John Huntsman seems to be very competent, good-spirited, advocating intelligent policies, etc. He might even be the Great Uniter America needs. Unfortunately, being a Mormon probably disqualifies him for 2016. (“Tried that; didn’t work.”)
But the Tea Party will probably get revived in 2014 not killed off.
It’s a basic political reality. Midterm elections don’t draw the numbers that Presidential elections do.
2012: 123,092,316 voters (approximately 50% - I couldn’t find an official figure)
2008: 132,618,580 voters (56.8%)
2004: 122,294,978 voters (55.3%)
2000: 105,586,274 voters (51.3%)
1996: 96,456,345 voters (49.1%)
1992: 104,405,155 voters (55.1%)
2010: 90,682,968 voters (37.8%)
2006: 80,588,000 voters (37.1%)
2002: 79,830,119 voters (37.0%)
1998: 73,117,022 voters (36.4%)
1994: 75,105,860 voters (38.8%)
1990: 67,859,189 voters (36.5%)
So who votes in mid-term elections? Presumably the people who are most passionate about their political beliefs. So the people who vote in mid-term elections are more conservative or more liberal than presidential election voters.
And as the party out of power, the Republicans will be more pumped up. So you’ll see more conservatives running and getting elected. And this will convince some people that 2012 was a fluke and the country is moving to the right. Just as 2010 convinced these people that 2008 was fluke and 1994 convinced them that 1992 was a fluke. And in the presidential elections of of 1996 and 2012, the more moderate voters showed up again and re-elected the President who supposedly had the voters away from him.
And he’s never held political office yet. He’ll barely be age eligible in 2016. 2036 would be more plausible than 2016. Hey, maybe we need a thread for who will be the GOP nominee in 2036!
Let’s not forget Bobby Jindal. His name is constantly circulated as a possible candidate.
What about Lindsey Graham? He’s always on the talk shows, and seems to have a national presence. I understand the Tea Party has him in their sites for the next non-pure conservative to oust, so if he survives that, maybe he’s got traction.
Bobby Jindal calls on Republicans to “stop being the stupid party”. I wonder if Republican voters will get what he is saying, or just brand him as “not conservative enough”.