The thing about a war is everyone says they did not want one. But everyone took steps to protect themselves and the next thing you know the shooting starts.
The EU has started phased sanctions on the Iranian oil industry. Right now, it is thought of as more of an insult, but in a few weeks, there may be some real bite. The EU wants the Iranians to swear off nukes but that will not happen due to internal political issues related to upcoming elections.
The US, also about to have elections, has moved the Abe Lincoln (great name, BTW) into place in the Persian Gulf. British and French ships in the flotilla ensure no fight would be limited to the Usual Suspects. Add in the wild car of possible Israeli U-boats in the region to strike Iranian nuclear sites.
If you want more confusion, remember the Iranian Navy and the Iranian Islamic Guard Corps Navy answer to different political masters.
All good fun until someone loses an eye.
A buddy of mine in the Korean Army once told me, “One day, we will waken to the sound of battle.” Strange to think he might have been right after all.
It’s true that things can get very interesting very fast. But that’s just life in the Middle East.
Personally, as soon as the proverbial shit hits the fan, my wife and kid are moving to her parents’ house in the suburbs (they have a private bomb shelter), and I’ll do whatever my country might want from me. I’m not looking forward to it, of course, but at least the other shoe will drop.
The first thing I thought of when I read the title of this thread was this, which has been going around the net somewhat recently:
Will there be a war soon? I think that’s almost guaranteed. Unfortunately, the human race has not yet reached a point where it can settle its differences without people killing each other.
Will it be with Iran? Who knows. They are certainly heading in that direction, but they still have plenty of time to change course.
I suspect that if you made a list like the above for the Middle East, not only would it be a lot longer, but it would probably have a lot fewer and smaller gaps in it.
Ahmedinejad isn’t making many friends. Doesn’t seem to be anyway; it’s like he has a complex and wants to prove something. Why the Iranian people allow him to have the keys to the country is hard to understand.
Yes, and it shows how extremely good we’ve gotten too. Just going by that list (Wikipedia has a larger, more detailed one), I see one loss (Vietnam), one draw (War of 1812), and the rest victories. With that kind of track record I have doubts Iran will be on the winning side if we come to military conflict.
Iran’s nuclear program potentially sets off a nuclear arms race among all the Arab countries.
We are getting into scary stuff. It goes way, way, way beyond just American interests. Destabilizing a volatile area like the Persian Gulf could be a world wide disaster. Maybe even the next world war.
Dr. Strangelove for those old enough to remember the film.
I just thing the word freedom in American politics has lost all meaning. It’s just a term that gets banded about to mean “good” and has slightly xenophobic undertones. But that’s for another thread I guess.
Presumably because the word ‘war’ has too many negative connotations. Anyway we’re hijacking this thread…
I don’t think anybody will fall into outright war without a political mandate whether that be considered in line with international law or not. But one can easily imagine a scenario where, for instance, an Iranian boat engages with an American ship and things snowball from there. Something like that may lead to a circumstance where an “operation” is inevitable.
I agree.
Rather Bushian, as “If you aren’t for us, you are against us” and his Kaiser Wilhelm quote, which I suspect he was unaware of, “To be prepared for peace, you must be prepared for war.” Para pax, para bellum. The 9mm Luger parabellum round is named from that.
That sort of rhetoric has been used by politicians since his administration; I point him out only as the guy who started it.
What Obama just said in his State of the Union makes me feel that a conflict is inevitable in the near future. I could be wrong, but it just seemed a little ominous.
The question is whether the leadership of Iran is crazy/stupid/fanatical enough to think that inviting a war with the US, the EU, AND the other petroleum producers of the region is wise, given that the US would loveto have a causus belli. Maybe they believe the people who claim that carriers are obsolete and that a mosquito fleet armed with antiship missiles could obliterate US carriers. Maybe they believe that the US would commit to a ground war where insurgency tactics could be used. The former is unknown and the latter is doubtful. The US has absolute omnipotent air supremecy over Iran, and we’d use it on a scale that made the Iraq wars look timid. We’d basically bomb and bomb and bomb until nothing poked up out of the rubble. Frankly the Iranian threats sound so shrill they’re virtually confirmation that we’re hitting Iran where it hurts. If the Iranian leaders were clever they’d follow the North Korean route of perpetually promising disarmament, resuming their nuclear program as soon as the heat’s off, then repeat.
So is there a country that would come to the aid of Iran, in their own way? Russia is to the north. (Yeah, yeah, I know there are a few former Soviet states in between. Let’s not quibble for the moment.) Is Putin crazy enough to “intervene” on behalf of Iran because Iran is their “neighbor?” (Of course, Russia wants the buffer and would gladly take what it thinks is its rightful share of Iranian oil.)
Or China? Yeah, I know. Makes no obvious sense. But we’re all about pseudo wars these days. Wouldn’t China just love to get us bogged down over there, while they play their own games in their own backyard, just to stretch us that thin?
