GPS solves a crime, but the "big fish" drug traffickers may escape in Central America

Great Debates
1

This is not a subject many dopers are aware, but since the war of drugs (no pun intended) continues in all of the Americas, I wanted to get your impressions and comments, there is also a curious technology angle in all this:

To begin, some background:

http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-02-20-voa20.cfm

Bold part added.

First the technology angle:
Was this the first time ever the Global Positioning System helped capture criminals in a mayor incident?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=49&objectid=10425495

Second, the political angle:
Now the plot thickens.

Of course the reactionary press in El Salvador can not let go of the possibility that the left in El Salvador was involved by reporting the “supposition” that one policeman got a call from El Salvador (no evidence was presented when the official told that to the press or who did the call, but never mind).

However, another group of investigators in Guatemala pointed to evidence that the original car the representatives were traveling had “a cargo worth 5 million dollars”. It is not clear if the killers found the drugs or money they came from and then they killed the witnesses, or the politicians were killed because the corrupt cops found nothing.

(spanish)

The question then remains: what was that alleged cargo doing there? This was supposed to be only a trip for Arena politicians to take part on unification talks of Central America.

All this points to the the strong possibility that because official cars are not inspected at the border that then smuggling money or drugs took place, and instead of being a political crime (as it was implied recently by the right wing Arena leadership) that then this points to a fight for the control of drug routes, with people in high levels involved. This could become a huge scandal in Guatemala and in El Salvador.

For the USA crowd: The FBI was invited to help investigate, but it seems pressure managed to get the Guatemalans to ignore whatever untouchable status the authorities had in Guatemala, (reported to be one of the most corrupt in the Americas) but that is IMO the “easy” part. Since the drug rings affect the US, could the United States offer more help or pressure when the investigation continues to seek the big fish that organized that crime (and possibly another: the presence of smuggling rings in high political places) even if the current status quo in Guatemala and in EL Salvador is affected?

2

Well, that did not take long:

:dubious:

Problem is that the local press just reported that it was a unit of the Guatemalan forces that did go in to [del]silence[/del] kill the accused 4:

http://www.laprensagrafica.com//nacion/724847.asp

Translated:
“Witnesses affirm that a commanded armed group entered the prison at visiting hours and executed the policemen. The Guatemalan authorities are keeping a lid on all information”

As I saw in the Salvadorian blogs, virtually all posters see this as the drug lords of Central America telling the local governments that they are in control.

I’m afraid that for the USA, it means that Central America will become an even bigger drug transfer point.

3

Astonishing they managed to get through eight sets of doors to get at those guys.

One of the 21/7 London suicide bombers (the ones whose bombs did not go off) did a runner to Italy by train. It was reported that he changed the SIMM in his mobile, but they watched his progress across France etc.

4

Oh they have tried to assign blame to a riot in the jail, but seeing reports were the energy was cut before the killings in the jail shows that the killers came from the outside or got help. Authorities have tried still to blame the prisoners for the killings, but now that seems more unlikely because outside the jails whoever is silencing the witnesses is still at it:

Not confirmed in the foreign press, but what I see in the local press and blogs is worrisome: a fifth policeman that was involved in the original killings gave up and is now under custody (I really think the FBI should keep an eye on him or he needs to be moved out of Guatemala), no one is sure if he did surrender before or after he noticed what happened to the sixth one. The sixth policeman accused apparently was found burned to a crisp yesterday (if this were a novel the readers would be now tossing the novel in disgust and with incredulity)

No one believes now this was just a mistaken identity robbery and murder, drug lords are taking over in Guatemala at least, and IIRC George W. Bush is going to visit the place soon, any change on plans when the local authorities are showing their security to be incapable or corrupt at the high levels?

5

What we basically have is a couple of failed states.

I wonder when the probem will become serious enough for the US to make an overt invasion.

The chances are that the taint from the corruption make itself felt in US politics, law enforcement and the judiciary.

6

Well, now I think this is being harsh, I would not call them failed states when the opposition has still access to the election ballot and they are not being hunted down as it was before (Although it is true that several suspicious recent cases of kidnappings and murders of opposition members have occurred), but I do think the longer a situation like the current one goes without decisive action that then they could indeed fall into a failed state situation.

And here is why I have the feeling the current Bush administration will show to be next to useless. Not because I think they are corrupt in the drug sense, but because the Bush administration IMO will not put much pressure to a Central American administration that is friendly to the US in other convenient areas.

7

So in fact US politics has become corrupted, as it is prepared to not apply pressure for its own purposes. The CA governments know this, and will give the US just what it wants, in order to continue exporting drugs.

It does not help that the product is so profitable for a very small number of individuals that there is little or no incentive to develop an economy that can fulfil the aspriations of the inhabitants, so in that sense, these are already failed states, as elections are hardly going to change anything.

The CA nations appear to have an electorate that limits the power of the state, reality is very differant, fundamentalist groups already feed on the discontent, by fundamentalist I don’t mean in the sense of religious, although lets face it, some of these groups do appear to lean in that direction, although the fact they also are involved in the drugs trade makes this an…interesting combination.

8

I virtually agree with everything you say, but the “failed state” nitpick remains (and this is the SD after all, one has to be precise).

To be considered a failed state one has to check several indicators::

http://www.fundforpeace.org/programs/fsi/fsindex2006.php

In the report of 2006, the 10 worst failed states are:

After more than 4 years of efforts, seeing Iraq and Afghanistan in the top ten is a shameful thing for the USA IMHO.

Guatemala (#51) is considered a country in danger of getting into the failed state area and El Salvador is also not too far behind. But I think next year the status could change for the worse making you to be more correct regarding the “failed state” score.

9

You have to admit, these nations certainly are well along the road to fulfilling quite a few of those requirements.

5 through to 9 and add in 12 for good measure.

They are making a damned fine effort on these.

In fact they are making progress on almost all the points though obviously not anything like as far as the likes of Somalia.

10

A few senior policemen or Army generals indulging in the riches of dealing in coke, do not exactly make a failed state.

I can think of one outfit that made it quite a nice little earner, yet the USA survives.

Probably in the 1920s half the Canadian government was getting paid off by Seagrams.