Greatest Scientists Ever: Elimination Game

Via Duckduckgo.com:

Is economics a science?

Raj Chetty (economist), NYT: Yes

Robert Shiller (economist), The Guardian: Yes Is economics a science? | Robert Shiller | The Guardian
My belief is that economics is somewhat more vulnerable than the physical sciences to models whose validity will never be clear, because the necessity for approximation is much stronger than in the physical sciences, especially given that the models describe people rather than magnetic resonances or fundamental particles. People can just change their minds and behave completely differently. They even have neuroses and identity problems, complex phenomena that the field of behavioral economics is finding relevant to understanding economic outcomes.

But all the mathematics in economics is not, as Taleb suggests, charlatanism. Economics has an important quantitative side, which cannot be escaped. The challenge has been to combine its mathematical insights with the kinds of adjustments that are needed to make its models fit the economy’s irreducibly human element.

Quora: https://www.quora.com/Is-economics-a-science-If-not-what-is-it Matthew Might (U of Utah, Computer Science, Pharmaceutical Chemistry): Yes Economics makes falsifiable claims about the world, although it’s often difficult to find “natural experiments” where only one economic variable changes at a time.

Sylvia Nasar, Economics Reporter, NYTimes: Sure.

Michael Wernecke, Stanford Philosophy Major, emphasis added
I think the easiest way to answer this question is not to attempt to define science (which is really really hard) and then show that economics fits that definition, but to attempt to construct a definition of science that excludes only economics while keeping other sciences as ‘science’. I think any such attempt will fail.

No category:
Time Magazine, quoted by Jared Bernstein: Is Economics a Science? | HuffPost Impact
“The trouble with economics is that it lacks the most important of science’s characteristics — a record of improvement in predictive range and accuracy.”

I think there's been some progress on the minimum wage issue. Also, recessions have tended to on average fall further apart, largely due to better central bank handling of the conventional business cycle (though financial crises are another category). 

Harvard Crimson: Macroeconomics is not a science, microeconomics is another matter

  1. “But what is the building block of economics? People. Economics does not study any unit smaller than a collection of people. And human behavior can never be absolutely predicted or explained—not if we wish to believe in free will, at any rate.”
    Me: Ok, so medicine is not a science either, as the building block is people. Also any study involving random processes isn’t science, because they can’t be predicted (though they can be forecasted, just as human behavior can and is forecasted).

  2. Economists can’t experiment
    Me: Actually there is a small part of the field that is experimental. But the critique is inane regardless: astronomy and meterology are observational sciences as well.

Keep Aristotle. He was the first guy to systematically collect knowledge, which is foundational to science. Admittedly, his followers treated him as an authority for 1000+ years though, which is antithetical to science. Mixed bag, but I think he certainly belongs in top 36.

Keep Arrow.

Eliminate:

Gutenberg, Johannes , though he was very influential :smiley:

Jung, Carl. Haven’t seen much evidence for a collective unconsious recently. Which is not to say it doesn’t exist in a memetic sense. I’m just saying Jung worked with non-systematic evidence.

Adam Smith - ok, let’s drop an economist

Hedy Lamarr

2 keeps, 4 eliminates.

Jumping ahead, is this approximately where we want to end up?

(((Newton)))
(((Aristotle)))
(((Copernicus/Galileo))): Choose 1.
(((Einstein)))
(((1 or 2 Quantum Mechanics)))
(((Darwin)))
(((Crick or Watson))), DNA
(((Karl Gauss)))
(((Hippocrates)))

Thanks for showing up, JohnT. :slight_smile: As I’ve indicated (#109 above), three of these were already evicted in Round #1. You can reuse these three votes.

Please note that these early evictees had overwhelming support for eviction. Tyson got 7 votes. The vote threshold for eviction was conservative: Hedy Lamarr, with only 3 votes, was NOT evicted.

Good advice. Your game had voting in different categories and still took 23 rounds. There’s been no enthusiasm to subdivide ours into categories, so it may take us 35 rounds even after we’re down to the Final Thirty-Six! Plus the rounds needed to prune from 136 to 36.

Rather than every three days, we’re going to skip weekends so the choices are two eliminations per week, or three eliminations per week. We’ll start with eliminations on Monday, Wednesday, Friday, all at 2pm EST. While we’re pruning our giant initial list, I’ll speed the tempo a little by also making cuts on Tuesday or Thursday, when voting sentiment is strong, as I did yesterday. Once we’re down to the Final 36 there will be no such unscheduled cuts.

Adjusting the number of votes per round should not, I think, take us toward or away from any “predetermined outcome.” The sole reason to vary this number is to keep the game fun, and find a suitable pace for the game.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
I have not double-checked but these appear to be the scientists who have two or more current votes (whether Evict or Keep):
Lamarr, Hedy: 5
Ricardo, David: 5
Smith, Adam: 5
Arrow, Kenneth: 6-1 = 5
Samuelson, Paul: 4
Gutenberg, Johannes: 4

Ockham, William of: 3
Anning, Mary: 2
Cannon, Annie Jump: 2
Keynes, John Maynard: 2
Aristotle: 2-1 = 1
Thorne, Kip: 1-1 = 0
Franklin, Benjamin 1-2 = -1
If there are no changes in the next ten and half hours, the first six names in this list will be eliminated.

(Sincere sympathy for Mr. Measure, who may be disappointed that economic science is being dismissed so easily.)

I would like to make a change to my vote then.

In order to satisfy my prejudice in favour of pioneers in their field, I will refrain from booting Alexander Fleming for the moment in order to put in a Keep vote for Adam Smith

My previous list has been reduced by elimination, so here’s the updated list:

ELIMINATE:

Aristotle
Galen, of Pergamon
Gutenberg, Johannes
Halley, Edmund
Lister, Joseph
Lovelace, Ada Byron Countess of
Ockham, William of
Smith, Adam

KEEP:

Anning, Mary

My latest (still not double-checked) count shows seven scientists with 4 votes, ready to be eliminated.

Lamarr, Hedy: 5
Ricardo, David: 5
Smith, Adam: 6-1 = 5
Gutenberg, Johannes: 4
Ockham, William of: 4
Samuelson, Paul: 4
Arrow, Kenneth : 5-1 = 4

Jung, Karl : 3
Cannon, Annie Jump: 2
Keynes, John Maynard: 2
Wigner, Eugene : 2
Aristotle : 3-1 = 2
Bardeen, Boltzmann, Borlaug, Braun, Bruno, Doppler, Galen, Goethe, Goodall, Haber, Halley, Hamilton, Harvey, Hilleman, Jenner, Lister, Lovelace, Meitner, Morley, Noether, Patterson : 1 eliminate vote each
Anning, Mary: 2-1 = 1
Thorne, Kip: 1-1 = 0
Franklin, Benjamin 1-2 = -1

Jung is in the rung likely to be Hung.

Eliminations:

Arrow
Braun
Bruno
Goethe
Hopper
Jung
Meitner
Ricardo

Keep:

Gutenberg

Following may be the current votes. Please inform me of any errors or changes.

The following players have the maximum number of active votes (though, like every other player, may change them at any time. The votes at 2 pm EST today will be used for the next batch of eliminations.)
[ul]
[li] Aspidistra is voting: Anning, Arrow, Bardeen, Boltzmann, Borlaug, Bruan, Cannon, Doppler; Keep: Smith_A[/li][li] Gyrate is voting: Aristotle, Galen, Gutenberg, Halley, Lister, Lovelace, Ockham, Smith_A; Keep: Anning[/li][li] Pepperwinkle is voting: Arrow, Gutenberg, Haber, Jenner, Keynes, Lamarr, Ricardo, Samuelson, Smith_A[/li][li] Quartz is voting: Arrow, Braun, Bruno, Goethe, Hopper, Jung, Meitner, Ricardo; Keep: Gutenberg[/li][/ul]
The following player is eligible to place one more vote
[ul]
[li] Sternvogel is voting: Anning, Arrow, Bruno, Hamilton, Noether, Patterson, Ricardo, Samuelson, Wigner[/li][/ul]
The following player is eligible to place two more votes
[ul]
[li] Snarky_Kong is voting: Arrow, Gutenberg, Franklin_B, Jung, Lamarr, Ockham, Smith_A[/li][/ul]
The following players are eligible to place three more votes
[ul]
[li] JohnT is voting: Goethe, Keynes, Lamarr, Ricardo, Samuelson, Smith_A[/li][li] Measure for Measure is voting: Gutenberg, Jung, Smith_A, Lamarr; Keep: Aristotle, Arrow[/li][li] penultima thule is voting: Arrow, Goodall, Ockham, Ricardo, Samuelson, Smith_A[/li][/ul]
The following player is eligible to place five more votes
[ul]
[li] What Exit? is voting: Aristotle, Jung, Lamarr; Keep: Franklin_B[/li][/ul]
The following player is eligible to place seven more votes
[ul]
[li] Chronos is voting: Aristotle; Keep: Thorne[/li][/ul]
The following player is eligible to place eight more votes
[ul]
[li] kunilou is voting: Ockham[/li][/ul]
Every other Doper is eligible to place nine votes!

Eliminate:
Gutenberg
Jung, Karl
Smith, Adam
Arrow, Kenneth
Keynes, John Maynard
Samuelson, Paul
Marconi, Guglielmo

Keep:
Hopper, Grace

Vote to Eliminate:

Euclid - math
Godel, Kurt - math
Gutenberg, Johannes - invention
Jung, Carl - psychology
Lamarr, Hedy - invention
Leonardo da Vinci - anatomy, invention, etc.
Ockham, William of - philosophy
Pythagoras - math

(trying to weed out some who are more inventors/mathematicians/logicians than scientists to my mind - acknowledging that it’s not a distinction everyone will agree with)

Vote to Keep:

Benjamin Franklin

Sorry for the interruption, but I disagree with the part about Ada Lovelace and would support Ada over Grace Hopper (I agree with Chronos on this in #39) – Hopper did some commendable work, but it was largely an incremental advance. Ada, with astonishing imagination, accurately foresaw a distant future.

Nor did Hopper create “the first human readable computer language” or make computers mainstream. Symbolic assembly code was most certainly a “human readable computer language”, and operating systems as well as many large programs continued to be written in it long after the invention of languages like COBOL and FORTRAN. What Hopper did was develop the first high-level language, but programming continued to be a trained specialty, and computers became mainstream not because any lay person could easily write programs (they couldn’t) but because of their increasing practical utility in science and business.

Elimination Round #2 is over.

*Elimination Round #3 will end 72 hours from now, on Monday 2pm EST. *** ** For this Round, each player will be allowed eleven votes, two of which may be Keeps.

Here are some of the Round #2 vote totals. The first eight names are eliminated. wolfpup, please join us for Round #3.

[INDENT]Eliminated:
Smith, Adam: 7-1 = 6
Arrow, Kenneth : 7-1 = 6
Ricardo, David: 5
Samuelson, Paul: 5
Lamarr, Hedy: 5
Jung, Karl : 5
Ockham, William of: 5
Gutenberg, Johannes: 6-1 = 5

Holding on for now:
Keynes, John Maynard: 3
Braun, Werner von : 2
Bruno, Giordano : 2
Goethe, Johann Wolfgang von : 2
Cannon, Annie Jump: 1
Wigner, Eugene : 1
Anning, Mary: 2-1 = 1
Aristotle : 2-1 = 1
Thorne, Kip: 0-1 = -1
Franklin, Benjamin 1-2 = -1
[/INDENT]

Official Scientists List:

Agassiz, Louis - biology, geology
Al-Biruni, Abu Rayhan Muhammad - natural philosophy
Al-Khwarizmi, Muhammad ibn Musa - math, astronomy
Alhazen Ibn al-Haytham - physics, etc.
Anning, Mary - paleontology
Archimedes - math, physics
Aristotle - philosophy, geology, biology, etc.
Babbage, Charles - computer science
Bacon, Francis - philosophy
Bardeen, John - physics, invention
Bernard, Claude - physiology
Berzelius, Jacob - chemistry
Boas, Franz - anthropology
Bohr, Niels - atomic physics
Boltzmann, Ludwig - thermodynamics
Borlaug, Norman - agronomics
Boyle, Robert - chemistry, physics
Brahmagupta - math, astronomy
Braun, Wernher von - rocket science
Bruno, Giordano - philosophy
Cannon, Annie Jump - astronomy
Copernicus, Nicolas - astronomy
Crick, Francis - Dna
Curie, Marie - radioactivity
Dalton, John - chemistry
Darwin, Charles - biology
Davy, Sir Humphrey - chemistry
Dirac, Paul - physics
Doppler, Christian - physics
Einstein, Albert - physics
Eratosthenes - math, astronomy
Euclid - math
Euler, Leonhard - math
Faraday, Michael - electromagnetism, etc.
Fermat, Pierre de - math, optics
Fermi, Enrico - atomic physics
Feynman, Richard - physics
Fleming, Sir Alexander - medicine, biology
Franklin, Benjamin - physics, etc.
Franklin, Rosalind - chemistry, X-ray crystallography
Galen, of Pergamon - biology, medicine
Galileo - physics, astronomy, etc.
Gauss, Karl - math, astronomy
Gell-Mann, Murray - physics
Goddard, Robert - rocket science
Godel, Kurt - math
Goethe, Johann Wolfgang von - natural philosophy
Goodall, Jane - primatology
Haber, Fritz - chemistry; invention (fertilizer, gas warfare)
Halley, Edmond - astronomy, etc.
Hamilton, William - astronomy, optics, math
Harvey, William - anatomy, blood
Hawking, Stephen - cosmology
Heisenberg, Werner - quantum theory
Hilleman, Maurice - biology, vaccination; saved more lives
Hipparchus, of Nicaea - astronomy, etc.
Hippocrates, of Cos - medicine
Hopper, Grace - computer science
Hubble, Edwin - astronomy
Hutton, James - geologist
Huygens, Christiaan - optics, physics
Ibn al-Nafis - anatomy, blood
Jenner, Edward - vaccination
Kepler, Johannes - astronomy, math
Keynes, John Maynard - economics
Lavoisier, Antoine - chemistry
Leakey, Louis - anthropology
Leavitt, Henrietta Swan - astronomy
Leeuwenhoek, Antonie van - microbiology, microscopy
Leibnitz, Gottfried - math, physics, etc.
Leonardo da Vinci - anatomy, invention, etc.
Liebig, Justus von - organic chemistry; a great practical scientist.
Linnaeus, Carolus - botany, taxonomy
Lister, Joseph - antiseptics
Lovelace, Ada Byron Countess of - computer science
Lyell, Charles - geology
Mach, Ernst - physics, cosmology
Marconi, Guglielmo - radio transmission
Marsh, Othneil = paleontology
Maxwell, James Clerk - physics
McClintock, Barbara - genetics
Mead, Margaret - anthropology
Meitner, Lise - atomic physics
Mendel, Gregor - genetics
Mendeleev, Dmitri - chemistry
Michelson, Albert - astronomy; speed of light
Morley, Edward - astronomy, chemistry, optics, and physics.
Mullis, Kary - biology
Neumann, John von - computer science, etc.
Newton, Sir Isaac - math, physics
Noether, Emmy - math
Oppenheimer, Robert - atomic physics
Pasteur, Louis - chemistry, biology
Patterson. Clair - geochemistry
Pauli, Wolfgang - quantum physics
Pauling, Linus - chemistry
Planck, Max - quantum physics
Poincare, Henri - math
Ptolemy - astronomy
Pythagoras - math
Rubin, Vera - astronomy
Russell, Bertrand - math
Rutherford, Ernest - nuclear physics, atomic theory, radioactivity.
Sakharov, Andrei - nuclear physics
Salk, Jonas - medicine, vaccination
Schrodinger, Erwin - wave mechanics
Semmelweis, Ignaz - antiseptics
Shannon, Claude - computer science
Smith, William - geology
Tesla, Nicolai - physics, invention
Thales, of Miletus - math
Thorne, Kip - physics
Turing, Alan - computer science, etc.
Ventner, Craig - genetics
Vesalius, Andreas - founder of anatomical sciences
Virchow, Rudolf - medicine, cell doctrine, etc.
Volta, Alessandro - chemistry, physics
Watson, James - Dna
Wegener, Alfred - meteorology, continental drift
Wigner, Eugene - physics, symmetry
Zhang Heng - astronomy, mechanics

[del]Arrow, Kenneth - economics[/del] 11/11
[del]Edison, Thomas Alva - invention[/del] 11/09
[del]Freud, Sigmund - psychology[/del] 11/09
[del]Friedman, Milton - economics[/del] 11/09
[del]Ge Hong - philosophy, alchemy[/del] 11/09
[del]Gutenberg, Johannes - invention[/del] 11/11
[del]Jung, Carl - psychology[/del] 11/11
[del]Lamarr, Hedy - invention[/del] 11/11
[del]Nisibis, St. Jacob of - theology, founded early school[/del] 11/09
[del]Ockham, William of - philosophy[/del] 11/11
[del]Ricardo, David - economics[/del] 11/11
[del]Sagan, Carl - astronomy[/del] 11/09
[del]Samuelson, Paul - economics[/del] 11/11
[del]Smith, Adam - economics[/del] 11/11
[del]Tyson, Neil deGrasse - astrophysics, science popularizer[/del] 11/09

The Board seems to have spoken. Condolences; and Thanks for your acceptance. :o

I would have left Arrow for one more round, personally. Anyone who has a famous and non-intuitive theorem named after him is mathematician enough to stay. That said, though, I also don’t feel strongly enough about him that I would have tossed a keep vote at him, so it’s OK that I missed the deadline.

My current votes:

Aristotle
Alhazen Ibn al-Haytham – While he came up with some reasonable ideas, they’ve mostly turned out to be wrong.
Edmund Halley – He made some significant discoveries, but mostly by virtue of being in on the ground floor of Newton’s revolution.
Edward Morley – His name is attached to a famous experiment by virtue of having at the time had one of the truly great physicists as his advisor. And while Michelson did many other great things without Morley, Morley never did much without Michelson.
Ptolemy – Another one whose biggest contribution turned out to be wrong.
Andrei Sakharov – Famous mostly for his political advocacy, not for his scientific accomplishments.

I focused on mathematics and the physical sciences here, because that’s the field where I feel most qualified to make judgements. I know I have some more votes left, but I’d have to spend too much work to research them.

Continuing my rampage through the alphabet from G…

Robert Goddard - did important work, but more an engineer than a scientist
Goethe - again, science is not a significant enough part of his significance. So to speak
Maurice Hilleman - having your work be of great practical significance is not the same as being a great scientist
Hippocrates - who knows how much of his work was actually his.
Grace Hopper - same deal as Goddard
Ibn al-Nafis - same deal as Goethe
John Maynard Keynes - if the pioneer of economics is out, individual economists don’t escape…
Leonardo da Vinci - not primarily a scientist
Guglielmo Marconi - same deal as Goddard and Hopper

Off with their heads:

Keynes
ibn al-Nafis
da Vinci
Hopper
Bacon
Anning
Alhazen
Halley
Sakharov

Two votes reserved.

Revised list replacing previous ones:

ELIMINATE:

Aristotle
Braun, Werner von
Galen, of Pergamon
Goethe, Johann Wolfgang von
Halley, Edmund
Lister, Joseph
Lovelace, Ada Byron Countess of
Sakharov, Andrei

KEEP:

Anning, Mary

REMEMBER: Players get Eleven votes this Round, not nine. Even eleven votes per player may not be enough to prune our over-long list rapidly.

Scientists with two or more currently active votes are:
Keynes, John Maynard : 5
Goethe, Johann Wolfgang von : 4
Halley, Edmund : 3
Leonardo da Vinci : 3
Sakharov , Andrei : 3

Alhazen Ibn al-Haytham : 2
Braun, Werner von : 2
Bruno, Giordano : 2
Ibn al-Nafis : 2
Marconi, Guglielmo : 2
Hopper, Grace : 3-1 = 2
Anning, Mary : 2-1 = 1
Aristotle : 2-1 = 1
Franklin, Benjamin : 1-1 = 0

Eliminate:

Boriaug, Norman
Braun, Wernher von
Goddard, Robert
Haber, Fritz
Jenner, Edward
Patterson, Clair
Rutherford, Ernest
Salk, Jonas
Thorne, Kip
Virchow, Rudolf
Zhang Heng