Romney has finished first or second in every state and has the most delegates.
It makes SC a “must” for McCain and Huckabee, though this race is so bewildering you never know.
In Iowa, he dropped a ton of money and yet lost his early lead. Wyoming was essentially uncontested by the other candidates. In New Hampshire (next door to Massachusetts, and where they should know him well) he dropped a ton of money and again lost his lead. Michigan was essentially a home field for him, given his family history.
Romney could finish as low as fourth in SC and FL and is fourth in the most recent Nevada poll (though he could get a bounce there).
I’d be surprised if any Republican candidates drop out before February 5. Who knows what the hell will happen after that?
A brokered convention is looking more and more like a realistic possibility for the Republicans. And what bloodletting there would be if that happens. My fondest wish is that a large contingent of delegates storms off the floor.
I don’t know why you think a brokered convention would be such a bad thing for Republicans. If anything it’s what they need. A nice long primary season will help Republicans figure out what they really believe and who they really want to lead.
My worst-case scenario for Republicans had them picking a wild card like Huckabee who could have ridden a wave of momentum through the front-loaded primary season and landed with the nomination on Feb 6, and then the Republicans spending the next nine months going, “Uh, NOW what do we do?”
I hope Republicans fight amongst themselves, debate like crazy, pick apart each other’s ideas, then go into the convention and hammer out a platform and a candidate who represents what they truly believe. There’s plenty of time to recover afterwards - these days with 24/7 media coverage and the internet, political campaigns morph VERY fast. The lead can change overnight. Every race we’ve had since 2000 has been wild, with candidates exchanging the lead multiple times over short time spans. A brokered convention in the summer is no big deal in November.
You guys could still resurrect George Macaca Allen!
The problem you guys have isn’t figuring out what you believe; it’s that you don’t all believe the same things. Some of you guys believe in the scientific method; some don’t. Some of you guys believe the world is billions of years old, and some of you believe it’s thousands of years old. Some of you guys believe nothing’s really that wrong with gays, but we’ll pretend they’re yucky in order to get the fundie vote. The fundies, of course, believe they’re evil. Some of you guys believe in the corporatist low-tax, free-trade, low-wage agenda; an increasing number of Republicans don’t. Some Republicans believe man-made global warming is real; those with the power are fighting it tooth and nail. Some Republicans even want to get out of Iraq.
It’s also about power. The fundies are tired of providing the votes for everyone else, and only getting tossed some judgeships and abstinence-only sex ed programs in return.
This primary season has gotten it all out in the open. That brokered convention would be lots of fun. You’d eventually pick a candidate simply because failing to do so would be the political death of the party. But good luck in hammering out that platform before Christmas. 
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Nevertheless, he has been the most consistent candidate and has twice the delegates of anyone else. I’m not saying he’s on his way, but it does make you think a bit about the oft repeated mantra that he is struggling. What if he struggles all the all to the nomination? I’m not saying he’s on his way, but it’s something to think about.
I think McCain will take it in the end. I always did, even when he went broke. In fact I bet on McCain, Clinton and Obama to win to White House about a year ago. The odds were such that I come out ahead no matter which one of them wins.
The Republican leadership does not trust McCain, he is not their creature. There are a thousand tiny ways to sabotage a candidacy, and they will use them. Romney is the least objectionable candidate and they will take a big gulp and throw thier support behind him (and I thinkthey already have). Its somewhat parallel to the situation on the Dem side, the leadership supports Clinton because they are still stuck to that triangulated-Centrist crapola. The difference is most Dems will be happy (enough) to support Clinton, Obama or Edwards, they are all pretty much acceptable candidates, and each has some sort of baggage to overcome with the Dem base. But not the kind of baggage McCain has.
I really hope the Dem convention passes out plastic shower clogs and gives a review of the Pubbie candidates policy reversal so that the crowd can wave them and chant “Flip-flop! Flip-flop! Flip-flop!” Sure, its spite and malice, what;s your point?
I’m not so sure about McCain’s ability to do well down the road.
NH and Michigan were two of the states best suited to him: they were open primaries, so he could get a lot of independent/crossover votes. If he’d won Michigan, I expect the short time interval (SC is three days away) would have gotten him a win in SC, which would have kept both the money and the media bandwagons going.
But now he’s lost in a state where the electoral terrain favors him. He lost Michigan by 14% among Republicans, according to the exit polls. Now he’s going to have to win among Republicans in SC and FL, because by Feb. 5, the sell-by date on that NH win will have passed.
So, at this point, does Giuliani still have any kind of a chance?
He is known amongst the people as* El Tostado*, The One Who Is Totally Toast.
I got a bet with someone for $100, saying he wasn’t gonna make it. Looking shiny to me!
Got any e-mail addy for him? See, I know this guy in Nigeria, his father died and left $317 godzillabucks in a bank…
The problem is, it seems nobody can win this thing. I know we keep coming back to this, but it’s a real Whack-A-Mole of a fact on the GOP side: no matter what you pound on, it pops back up.
And if nobody can win, then anybody’s got a shot. Through Feb. 5, ~1460 delegates will be chosen out of 2380 total, if the GOP changes its mind about chopping the MI, FL, etc. delegations in half. It’s easy to envision a scenario where the leader on Feb. 6 only has about 450 delegates, and would have to take all but ~200 of the remaining ~920 delegates to win outright.
I hate to keep harping on him, because I don’t really think he’ll win, but Fred Thompson is as close to the most universally acceptable candidate that the Republicans have:
- He’s pro-life, so the fundies like him.
- He’s a Federalist, so he opposed federal restrictions on abortion and other contentious issues, so he’s palatable to moderates and libertarian-Republicans.
- He’s got a solid record of supporting smaller government and lower taxes, which are about the closest things to universal Republican ideals as there are (even if they don’t act that way once in power)
- He’s got the support of the fundie base, but he’s not a fundie himself, and admits he’s at best a casual church-goer. In this regard, he’s remarkably like Reagan.
- He’s liked by business Republicans because he’s staunchly pro-free trade and for lower taxes and regulations.
- He’s liked in the south because he’s a southerner and he supports strong border controls.
- He’s a cosmopolitan guy who has lived in Hollywood and can get along just fine with liberals.
- He’s personally well liked.
- He has a strong record for being honest and for fighting corruption.
I don’t think he alienates any particular part of the Republican party.
In comparison, all the other candidates have major flaws with respect to some part of the Republican party:
- Guliani’s pro-choice and has supported gun control and other non-Republican ideas, and he’s absolutely hated for it among many in the ‘base’.
- Romney’s Mormonism is a problem, and he has also had to change many of his positions previously held to make himself electable in the primary season - and people know it and distrust him.
- Huckabee has a lot of support from the ‘base’, but his economic populism turns off the free-market and business Republicans. Plus, he’s got a lousy resume and a history of making questionable decisions.
- McCain is a ‘maverick’ who has spent his career pissing off various factions of his own party at one time or another. I rather like McCain and consider him a fairly reliable conservative, but I was surprised to see so much vitriol being leveled against him by a lot of Republicans. Go read the ‘Corner’ at National Review. They detest the guy.
This is why Thompson immediately shot to the top of the pack when he originally announced his candidacy - someone like Fred Thompson is exactly what the party was looking for. But he entered late, without the organization the other candidates already had, and then proceeded to snooze his way through the primaries until last week. I don’t know what he was thinking, because had he come out strong and on the attack, I think he’d have the nomination sewn up by now. But he didn’t, and fell off the radar screen. Now he’s finally campaigning the way he should have from the start, but it’s looking like he missed his boat.
There is a chance that he will rise again if there’s a brokered convention, however. I honestly think he’s the kind of guy Republicans really want. No one has anything bad to say about him - other than that he seems to be a lousy campaigner. You could sense the disappointment all over the Republican sphere when he turned out to not be the guy they were hoping for.
Sure, but near as I can tell Fred Thompson “running” consists of sitting still and hoping Law & Order reruns are enough to make him something other than Kucinich of the Right.
-Joe
Sam, I agree with most of what you said but I think Thompson missed the obvious: there’s a vast difference between being Reagan and being Reaganesque. The only person who could successfully run on the Ronald Reagan platform was Ronald Reagan. Anyone else trying to do so ends up looking like an knock-off imitation.
It’s a bi-partisan failing. Way too many Democrats have tried to run on the John F Kennedy platform.
I heard Thompson interviewed on NPR yesterday, which was the first time I’ve heard him speak at length, and he came off terrible. He flipped and flopped on what I thought was a pretty straightforward question about the economic stimulus package that was big news yesterday. Now, I’m not a Republican, but I can’t imagine anyone listening to the interview and coming away with a positive impression. After hearing that, it is no surprise at all to me that he has not done well so far.
Listen to it here: Thompson Outlines Economic Plans, Defends Style : NPR
Former Bushie Michael Gerson has harsh words for Freddy today:
So McCain wins SC and Romney wins NV (yawn)
Where does this leave Huckabee? Something that no commentator has mentioned is that Huck would have run away with SC had Fred Thompson not woke up and campaigned in the only early state that Huck had a lock on.
Fred will probably drop out tomorrow with his only impact on this campaign being a kick to the teeth of Huckabee. I’m sure Huck’s FL polling numbers will drop following this loss…
That’s two for McCain now. This is disconcerting. The over-the-top comments on this board against Republicans have prompted me to lean towards voting Republican this year for the first time in my life. **Der Trihs ** alone makes me regret that I cannot vote for Bush this time around. But although I kinda like McCain as a person, I’m not voting for anyone in their 70s for president.