There’s a raft of new Michigan polls out, and it looks like Romney’s bouncing back.
Three of the six new polls show a one-point difference between Romney and McCain, while two show Romney with a lead (Mason-Dixon, 8%; Detroit Free Press, 5%), and one showing McCain on top (ARG, naturally - 7%). In all polls, Huck’s in the mid to upper teens, running 9-10% behind the leaders, on average. Nobody else is in double digits there.
Now if Gramps woke up and won SC, then Rudy took FL, we’d have…chaos!
I don’t know if Gramps can take SC, but he’s certainly surging there. Apparently, last week’s debate in SC was a huge success for him. He’s raised over a million dollars on his web site since then, and apparently his personal appearances are becoming so crowded they are having to turn people away.
I think it might be a little too late for him to come back from so far behind, but it’s certainly possible that he could squeak into second or a strong third - enough to keep his campaign alive for yet another state. And with this wild race, the name of the game is going to be simply to stay alive and hope to grab some momentum along the way. I don’t think I’ve seen a Republican race this wide open in my lifetime.
And I don’t think Rudy is going to win FL. I think his ‘wait for Florida’ strategy backfired. I think that, given the edge he had last year, he thought he could coast through the early states picking up enough votes to keep him on the radar as a major contender without actually winning, and then launch himself into the lead on the strength of Florida. But man, he’s polling behind Ron Paul now. It makes him look like a fringe candidate, and that’s going to hurt him badly in Florida because by then he may not look electable.
Also, you could make the case that Thompson has a shot because he’s the only truly honest conservative in the bunch, and he just needs to get noticed or wait for Huckabee to implode (if he does). But really… Where’s Rudy supposed to pick up the support? McCain has got the hawks sewn up. Romney has the business-and-management Republicans on his side. Rudy’s never had the conservatives. So what’s his constituency?
I suppose if Romney crashes and burns and Thompson and Huckabee split the conservative votes, there might be room for Rudy to come squeaking through the middle and challenge McCain in the center. But it’s looking increasingly unlikely.
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
Where’s Rudy supposed to pick up the support? McCain has got the hawks sewn up. Romney has the business-and-management Republicans on his side. Rudy’s never had the conservatives. So what’s his constituency?
[/QUOTE]
Those who are scared shitless of “Islamofascists”. Not the same as hawks. Then there are also moderate Republicans, Independents and Reagan Democrats.
Actually, Rudy’s biggest constituency is the Republican Northeast, mainly. Eastern Republicans are more liberal, more cosmopolitan. That’s the constituency he’s counting on - his strategy is that he can just hang on and remain viable until Florida, where he can win a huge state with lots of delegates, then ride that momentum into Super Tuesday shortly thereafter, and come out of it with a plurality of delegates. Then even if the convention is brokered he’s got a good story to sell - he’s the guy that can win in Florida in the general, and Republicans need Florida. If he picks a solid southern conservative running mate like Thompson or a religious southern conservative like Huckabee, he can probably win the nomination at the convention over the other guys who will begin to look like regional players.
The problem is that he fell too far at the beginning, and had to spend a wad of money he didn’t intend to spend just to keep himself from being totally embarassed and looking unelectable going into Florida. So now he’s almost out of money, and he’s still trailing in the polls (he’s now second last in South Carolina, with only Ron Paul slightly lower). So he’s going into Florida as damaged goods.
Sam - I agree with much of what you say above, but how do you know Thompson’s surging in SC? RCP is only showing two post-NH polls for SC, both from last Wednesday, and they have him at 12% and 9%.
He may have done well in the debate (I didn’t see it), and he may be getting some positive buzz from the pundits. But that may or may not translate into votes.
[QUOTE=RTFirefly]
I was going to say something about how both McCain and Romney desperately need a win in Michigan…
[/QUOTE]
I’m sorry, but I really don’t understand this post (not just the quoted bit). Can you expand a bit for this Brit?
[QUOTE=RTFirefly]
Sam - I agree with much of what you say above, but how do you know Thompson’s surging in SC? RCP is only showing two post-NH polls for SC, both from last Wednesday, and they have him at 12% and 9%.
He may have done well in the debate (I didn’t see it), and he may be getting some positive buzz from the pundits. But that may or may not translate into votes.
[/QUOTE]
I based that on two factors - one is that after the debate his fund-raising almost doubled, and the other is that reports on the ground are that his personal events went from being small affairs to big crowds.
But there haven’t been any real post-debate polls, so we’ll see if it translates into numbers. In this wacky election season, who knows?
Also, his intrade quotes have taken a big jump. Last week, he was at .1% in the market for who’s going to win the presidency. Today he’s at 5.6% - higher than Romney.
[QUOTE=Quartz]
I’m sorry, but I really don’t understand this post (not just the quoted bit). Can you expand a bit for this Brit?
[/QUOTE]
If Romney fails to do well in Michigan (MI) he will be all but done. He’s not won anything important and if he can’t take the state where his father was a long-time governor people will stop viewing his candidacy as being viable.
McCain needs MI to maintain the New Hampshire bounce and ensconce himself as the new front-runner.
A Huckabee win would give him a big bounce right before rolling into South Carolina, a state made for his evolution-is-bunk kind of Christian conservatism.
Giuliani just plans on losing in MI.
There’s two different indicators at work: money and votes. If a relatively small number of corporate conservatives decided they wanted to push Thompson as the “safer” conservative choice over Huckabee, his funds could jump up real quick (especially as they were at a low level before). Now the question is whether Thompson’s campaign can convert money into votes.
As Hillary Clinton is learning, being the richest candidate is nice but what’s important is being the most popular candidate.
[QUOTE=Captain Lance Murdoch]
If Romney fails to do well in Michigan (MI) he will be all but done. He’s not won anything important and if he can’t take the state where his father was a long-time governor people will stop viewing his candidacy as being viable.
[/QUOTE]
I see, though I think the people of Wyoming might disagree with you on one point.
Yeah, they both seem heavily in favor of Romney.
[QUOTE=Little Nemo]
There’s two different indicators at work: money and votes. If a relatively small number of corporate conservatives decided they wanted to push Thompson as the “safer” conservative choice over Huckabee, his funds could jump up real quick (especially as they were at a low level before). Now the question is whether Thompson’s campaign can convert money into votes.
[/QUOTE]
Actually, Thompson’s campaign is almost completely grassroots. The big money would rather invest in a ‘safe’ pick like McCain or Romney. Thompson is raising almost all his money through his web site. Since the debate, he raised a million dollars, and gained 12,000 new donors. The average contribution to his site is under $100.
Anyway, it seems the money has translated into votes. The first Post-Debate Poll in SC from Rassmussen has Fred at 16% - only three points out of second place. The current results:
McCain: 28%
Huckabee: 19%
Romney: 18%
Thompson: 16%
The net change: Huckabee is down 5%, Thompson up 4%. Thompson’s got momentum going - according to reports coming in at The Corner at National Review, Thompson events are sellouts with hundreds of people waiting outside venues for a chance to see him. Since the debate, he picked up endorsements from Human Events, one of the top Conservative journals, and a few other fairly powerful interest groups in and out of the state.
Currently, I think Fred’s on a trajectory to take second place in SC. It’s hard to see him knocking off McCain, but could easily be something like McCain 24%, Thompson 20%, and the others down in the low teens.
Thompson really needs to win SC to jump up into the top ranks. A second-place finish will probably keep him alive for a while, but he’d have to really have a breakthrough elsewhere to keep any kind of momentum going. So he’s still a longshot.
Also, the Michigan primary may throw a wrench into the works for someone. If Romney loses, he could shed a bunch of votes to Thompson (or McCain, I suppose). If Huckabee comes back and beats Romney or at least finishes strong, he could gain some momentum going back to SC on Saturday. If Huckabee flames out and winds up near the bottom in MI, he could lose votes to Thompson.
It’s a real crapshoot.
[QUOTE=Quartz]
I see, though I think the people of Wyoming might disagree with you on one point.
[/QUOTE]
That is our least populous state and it has the least delegates. They might disagree, but no one else would.
Wyoming has 97,818 sq miles or 253,348 km².
The county I live in has more people in it and only has 472 sq miles of land.
Jim
I haven’t seen this dealt with, so I wanted to get people’s opinion on it. Today is obviously the Michigan primary, and because of the fight that Michigan had with the DNC, it’s really only the Republican Michigan primary. But Michigan has an open primary, so I’m wondering if the Michigan Democrats will cross over, and what effect their votes will have.
[QUOTE=Captain Amazing]
I haven’t seen this dealt with, so I wanted to get people’s opinion on it. Today is obviously the Michigan primary, and because of the fight that Michigan had with the DNC, it’s really only the Republican Michigan primary. But Michigan has an open primary, so I’m wondering if the Michigan Democrats will cross over, and what effect their votes will have.
[/QUOTE]
There’s a little bit of a movement in the Left Blogistan for Democrats to push Romney over the top, so as to foster maximum chaos and puzzlement in the Republican camp (i.e., don’t let any one Republican candidate win too many early primaries). The idea is that the more candidates they have in play the better, and the later they have more in play the better.
There’s also a rival movement to push Democrats to vote “Uncommitted” so that IF the Michigan delegates ARE seated (which isn’t even close to being an impossibility), Hillary can’t claim the state on the first ballot (Hillary being the only Democrat who’s still ON the Michigan primary ballot).
[QUOTE=Sam Stone]
Actually, Thompson’s campaign is almost completely grassroots. The big money would rather invest in a ‘safe’ pick like McCain or Romney.
[/QUOTE]
Hah. If I were a hypothetical big-money supporter of McCain, Romney, or Giuliani, I would be inclined to funnel some cash to Thompson in an effort to divide the evangelical vote and undercut Huckabee’s support.
I don’t think I’m the only one to whom that Machiavellian thought has occurred.
[QUOTE=Captain Amazing]
I haven’t seen this dealt with, so I wanted to get people’s opinion on it. Today is obviously the Michigan primary, and because of the fight that Michigan had with the DNC, it’s really only the Republican Michigan primary. But Michigan has an open primary, so I’m wondering if the Michigan Democrats will cross over, and what effect their votes will have.
[/QUOTE]
Probably, and it’ll help McCain.
Despite what jayjay said, McCain’s more likely to get votes from conservative Dems than Romney is to get votes from Kossacks and their friends.
I think Romney’s still the better bet today - none of the polls in the latest RCP average show McCain up by more than a point, and the movement in the trackers is all towards Mitt: in the Mitchell Research tracker, McCain’s lead has gone from 6 to 1 to -2 to -6, in Reuters/Zogby, it’s gone from 3 to 1, and in ARG, for whatever it’s worth, it’s gone from 7 to 1.
But it’s hardly a done deal.
I still think Huckabee could have had a chance to win today if he’d skipped NH and headed directly to Michigan. It’s hard to see where either Mitt or McCain would have won next before Feb. 5 if Huck had won here.
[QUOTE=spoke-]
Hah. If I were a hypothetical big-money supporter of McCain, Romney, or Giuliani, I would be inclined to funnel some cash to Thompson in an effort to divide the evangelical vote and undercut Huckabee’s support.
I don’t think I’m the only one to whom that Machiavellian thought has occurred.
[/QUOTE]
By no means. In 2004, Pubs were circulating ballot-access petitions for Ralph Nader.
Michigan goes to Romney: Fox News
[QUOTE=jtgain]
Michigan goes to Romney: Fox News
[/QUOTE]
Now, if only Fred thompson could win South Carolina, and Rudy could win Florida, the Pubs will be all set for Super Tuesday.