Handicapping Federal gun control legislation

Politics & Elections
1

Tomorrow President Obama unveils the recommendations given to him by Vice President Biden. It should be no surprise that the recommendations will largely be the same as the Assault Weapons Ban that passed in 1994 and sunsetted in 2004, with the added component of universal background checks and maybe a few other things like mental health reporting.

For the record, I think that Obama was forced into this. Granted, he ran with this as part of his platform and he has always been a supporter of gun-control measures, but he didn’t touch it in his first term and probably wouldn’t have done so now but for the fact that he really had to. If he had ignored it after Newtown he would have been pilloried by his own supporters. However, that comes with its own set of problems, which is what this thread is about. How is this going to turn out?

My opinion:

President Obama is going to be burned by this. The Assault Weapons Ban as submitted does not have a chance. The NRA claims that the votes aren’t there, and on this I believe them. The Republicans have never forgotten that they took control in 1994 on the backs of gun-rights supporters, and I think that this time it’ll be no different, especially since the NRA is reporting that they have gained 250,000 new members in the last three weeks on top of the 4.25 million already-existing members, none of which will vote Democrat.

I think that the part about universal background checks will pass if submitted alone, and I think that a mental health component will pass if submitted alone. But an omnibus bill? Dead on arrival, it’s far too overreaching. Feinstein’s bill reads like a gun-control supporter’s dream sheet, there’s no way it’ll pass. The states, of course, are free to do whatever they wish, as New York has already done, but on the Federal level it’s not going to pass.

That will sting President Obama a little bit, but since he’s already a lame duck it shouldn’t be the end of the world for him. He’s already passed his crowning achievement with “Obamacare”, and the Democrats are still going to be hot for economic reforms, but this is a big initiative, a long-time Democratic policy plank, and it’s going to fail.

The real fallout will come in the mid-term elections. Any Republican that votes for an Assault Weapons Ban is looking at losing his seat, and the Democrats will face some serious challenges. This will be 1994 redux. The Republicans will make gains in the House and will have a serious shot at the Senate no matter how it turns out. If it all somehow passes they’ll take both chambers with ease.

But what I’m really curious about is what this will do to the next Presidential election. The longer this stays at the forefront, and it will continue throughout President Obama’s entire second term at some level, the more of a chance the Republican candidate will have. Right up until this whole thing blew up I thought the Republican Party’s chances of getting in the White House were nil for a very long time. This changes everything.

Thoughts?

2

I dunno. If the GOP forces a default and/or shuts down the government, the gun issue may be enough to offset it, but I don’t know if it becomes a net positive for the party. On the other hand, if the GOP comes up with some sort of face saving compromise on the budget problems, the gun issue could work out the way you think it will. We live in interesting times.

3

I think you over-estimate America’s attention span. How’d the 1994 AWB work out for Bob Dole?

4

Not so well. But bear in mind that the law passed and people had a chance to forget about it. If I’m right and it doesn’t pass, people will have constant reminders of it, which will have an effect. People tend to remember the last few things they hear, which is why things matter more as the election gets closer. If they don’t have the opportunity to forget it becomes a big issue.

5

You think people will have more constant reminders of it if it doesn’t pass then if it does? I doubt that’s true. In any case, whatever becomes of gun legislation, its going to get run off the front pages by a months worth of debt-ceiling chicken in pretty short order.

FWIW: Harry Reid has already said he doesn’t think he’d try and pass an AWB through the Senate, and the Obama Admin is pretty allergic to quixotic legislation, so I doubt the administration is going to propose one.

6

It’s a done deal. Dianne Feinstein intends to submit one this month. I doubt that President Obama will try to stop her. Quite the contrary, he has said explicitly that he intends to propose one himself, so whatever the recommendations are you can be pretty sure that Feinstein’s proposal is the meat of it.

7

I think it’s more likely that Feinstein’s proposal is very broad and very far-reaching. That way, Obama can roll out his version after people have been apoplectic for long enough to be tired and it’ll seem very reasonable in comparison. That’d be smart politics, IMO.

8

Obama is releasing his plan tomorrow. Actually, now it’s today. I doubt that’s “long enough”.

But I agree that the GOP has waaaaay more to lose with the debt ceiling fiasco. Especially if they do this over and over again.

9

There probably aren’t enough votes for the AWB, which is sad because no civilian has a legitimate use for one.

As for the long term electoral impact, I’m not afraid. The nation is much more diverse and urban than in 1994. Support for gun control is not a certain kiss of death for most Democrats. Sure, there are some NRA types that vote Republican out of fear, but that’s nothing new. They’re a fearful lot, and that’s what they do. It may galvanize a certain vocal minority of voters, but it’s time that we stopped living in fear. Go ahead, NRA. Do your worst. You don’t scare me.

10

Whatever legislation he attempts to pass will be in keeping not only with the opinion of clear majorities of the American people, but even majorities of NRA members. Their fevered opposition will only serve to further mark them as crazy, and to marginalize the crazies who remain in their ranks.

The new organization that Giffords is starting will help to centralize opposition to the NRA and give political shape and weight to the currently unformed but still majority sentiment against the NRA.

Dreamers will hope that this somehow hurts Democrats. This is just the break the McCain campaign has been hoping for.

11

Doubtful. The pendulum has swung on gun control. Americans overwhelming support new laws restricting the sale and ownership of semi-automatic rifles and high capacity clips. Republicans are behind the curve on this issue yet again.

12

nm, I’ll let someone else respond to the claim assault weapons have not legitimate use.

13

I agree that Obama probably wouldn’t have gone looking for this issue right this minute but since it’s here …

If he proposes some reasonable regulations and changes - half the country will light their hair on fire and scream that he’s going to take their guns.

If he does nothing - half the country will light their hair on fire and scream that he’s going to take their guns.

On paper, I’m not sure this loses him anyone who wasn’t already convinced that he’s the bogeyman. Devil will be in the details, of course.

14

The purpose most gun fetishists claim is the duty to overthrow the government whenever they think it becomes a tyranny. They have no confidence in the Constitution or representative government to restrain tyranny, and claim the right to mount an armed insurgency in order to get their way. The would buy full automatic machine guns and rocket propelled grenades if they were as available as semi-automatic rifles.

15

While I can understand the intentions, I have grave doubts about the practicality. I am not the least bit eager to see dozens of little Ruby Ridge/Waco type fiascoes. Trouble is, we don’t know how many actual “gun nuts” there really are, and I’m not at all sure I want to find out.

16

Support for this assertion in a new AP-GfK poll:

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](http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_AP_POLL_GUN_CONTROL?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-01-16-07-47-07)

17

I’m having a hard time parsing the predictions of the OP, as they seem a bit contradictory, but here are mine.

AWB is DOA in the House, and likely in the Senate too.

Universal background checks (or, more likely, universal public sales background checks) will pass the Senate but die in the House.

Bans on high-capacity magazines will not go anywhere.

Executive order actions taken will be almost universally praised (I’ve already seen conservatives praising them).

I have a very hard time seeing how this set of outcomes hurts Obama or the Democrats. The Dems that will vote for an AWB in the Senate come from states that overwhelmingly support gun control. There just aren’t enough red-state Democrats in either chamber for it to matter anymore - the only person I can see being conflicted is Manchin from WV.

The best part about this (from the Democrats perspective) is that the GOP controls the house. So there will likely never be a vote on the contentious stuff there - only bills that pass the Senate.

18

Obama is in no danger, the people facing reelection might be shitting their pants at what they might have to do though.

19

The rhetoric in this thread has been pretty reasonable to this point - who knows, maybe this will become a somewhat productive SDMB discussion on guns - so let’s attempt to do that without throwing around terms like “gun fetishists.”

20

I understand, but who?

Mark Begich (AK) maybe? Udall and Bennet from CO (I think the Aurora thing probably gives them some cover here)? Definitely Kay Hagan (NC) - but she’s in big trouble either way. Tim Johnshon (SD) the same, and I don’t think he will even run. Rockefeller (WV) is retiring. Mark Pryor (AR) is one - but he won in a landslide last time, and will likely vote against any gun control legislation anyway.

I’m just having trouble seeing what Democratic Senators up in 2014 this potential vote hurts outside of the ones that are likely goners anyway. For help, here’s the list: 2014 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia

Maybe the GOP leadership will put some bill up for vote in the House just to make Democrats vote for it, but that seems unlikely to me - and if they do won’t the Democrats just vote it down anyway (unless, perhaps it has passed the Senate)?

ETA: For completeness, there is not a single competitive seat on the Senate GOP side at this point (unless somebody like Collins gets primaried). Which is why I think this is much ado about nothing - there is no way any legislation is getting past the GOP Senate.