My 31st birthday is coming up in a few months, and this is what I want.
I’m concerned about the effectiveness of such a device, as well as its $189 price tag.
We’ll assume that handicapping a horse race without the aid of a computer isn’t something yer average Joe can do. I once skimmed a book on handicapping, and it seemed that you’d need a degree in math (which I don’t have) in order to make sense of it. So this computer might be useful. The web page states:
Do I need a computer to figure this out? Does the Daily Racing Form tell me which horse is the highest rated, or do I need a computer to figure it out on my own?
Finally, is handicapping even worth the effort? I mean, let’s get real: if picking horse races were so easy, no one would need a real job. BUT, I figure, even if this computer is right only 50% of the time, the absolute worst I could do is break even.
So what about my birthday present? Will it help me be a better gambler, or am I destined to wind up with a $189 calculator?
It’s no secret or surprise that I’m a horse racing freak, but all my knowledge and adoration of the sport cannot compensate for the fact that I SUCK as a handicapper. Part of the reasoning of that is I simply do not want to invest the time required in studying past performances and Beyer speed figures; I’m more interested in watching the horseys run and see if the one I like wins. I rarely, if ever, gamble when I go to the track.
IMHO, the computer is a complete waste of money. Spend $3 on the Daily Racing Form, or $0.25 on a local newspaper. They have professional handicappers in there who are usually darn accurate.
My only bits of advice:
Don’t bet the favorite if they’re coming off a lay off or if they’re running at that distance for the first time.
Don’t waste your money on 50-1 shots if you’re looking for a profit. Your best chances at earning money are the 5-1 to 15-1 shots. Sure, there are eye-popping payoffs out there, but though they are fantastic, they are rare.
Beware the horse that has never run on that particular track before.
Horse racing is no science, and racehorses aren’t machines. Sometimes they just don’t FEEL like running (like favored Point Given in this year’s Derby), and will throw in a clunker just because. Study past performances o check consistancy.
Watch a horse in a post parade. Are they dripping with white foamy sweat? Are they prancing, nervous, upset? Flee. Too often such horses burn off their energy long before they leave the gate.
Just go to the track, pick a horse with a pretty name, and go from there. That’s my final suggestion.
I can’t speak for Harness or Greyhound racing, but what does football have to do with thoroughbreds?
Aside from the excellant advice that Ruffian gave, I’d suggest that you take the following into account:
The distance of the race - some horses can run 6 furlongs (3/4 mile) and some a mile and a half, but most are best at one, the other, or some distance in between. If a horse is good at 6 furlongs, and the trainer decided to try him at a mile and a half the last couple of races, the horse’s recent history may not be so good. If today’s race is 6 furlongs, it’s a better bet.
Track conditions - Is the track fast? Sloppy? Again, most fair better in one than the other.
The competition - Does your horse set the pace early on? Will he have to contend with other horses which do the same?
I’ve known people whose only income was what they managed to win at the track, but believe me, they weren’t rich. The tips that Ruffian and I mentioned will only get you so far. I don’t doubt that a computer could improve your winnings, but that computer would have to take into account many, many variables; a calculator won’t cut it. For $200, I’d write you a handicapping program, but you’d have to do a lot of data entry. Hardly worth it.
I’m not sure what they mean by “established class,” but it sounds like the most transparent way of handicapping:
You: “Computer, the derby winner is running in a claiming race. Is it a good bet?”
You might want to ask yourself, “If that computer does indeed work, why aren’t they at the track using it instead of selling it?”
In addition to the handicapping hints mentioned, one good rule is “pick your spots.” Don’t try to bet on every race. Professional gamblers only bet on one or two races on a card.
Also, bet only to win. Place and show bets may pay off more often, but the amount is so small that a couple of losers will put you in the red. Exotics have big payoffs, but are usually too difficult to handle (on odd occasions, a quinella might be a good bet, though).
As far as track conditions are concerned, if the track isn’t fast, stay home. It hard enough betting without that added complication.
IMHO, no, you do not need a computer to tell you what horse in a given race has the highest class. Racing forms will show you Beyers speed ratings, if that is your only criteria. I agree with the other posters here. There are so many factors to consider in a race. And these factors are listed in racing forms.
Sometimes a drop in class can be a good thing:If an owner and trainer are looking for a win, this can be the key.
Post position: in a short race this can be crucial, as every track has a different track configuration (how close is the gate to the 1st turn?)
Claiming price: if the horse has done well at this price at this distance, this is considered.
Jockey factor: is the jockey having a good day at the track?
Track conditions: some horses love the mud.
Race distance: how has the horse performed, placed, at the distance, and how was the competition?
(my favorite) Pure, dumb luck.
Remember this rule : There’s NO free lunch. Nothing will guarantee you 50% wins.
I go to the track 4 times a week and makes money over “the long run.” I use discipline (only betting the good races), and memory (remembering when the horse has a “better than looked” race).
The track takes out 18% off true pari-mutual odds for straight bets and 20% for exotics. That means for the average schmuck betting $1, he will get back .72. For an evenings entertainment, and a chance to win, it’s not a bad deal.
The good news is that you are betting against everyone else there, which sometimes make stupid decisions, like betting the tout sheets, the “professional handicappers”, or the favorites.
I only bet on the harness races. The horses all run the same distance (1 mile), with the same jockey (usually), against mostly the same horses, every week. Thoroughbreds have too many variables for me to grasp.
Of course, the net result of all of this work is the complete removal of fun from the process. Just like with other forms of professional gambling (where the primary goal is to maximize return, like blackjack and some video poker), you become nothing more than a robot making automated decisions.
One other word of advice; if these guys programs and recommendations were so solid, why would they be selling it to you instead of making more money by using it themselves??
