Corrupt, discredited, scandal-ridden administration . . . divisive, unpopular quagmire of a war . . . Nope, nuttin’ to see here.
People who feel that way more than likely have not voted Republican in quite a long time, if at all. What has substantively changed since 2004? Unless Cheney’s unchecked hunting bloodlust ignites some sort of popular outcry, there is no single issue that pegs the GOP/Bush Administration at the same level of criminal scandal as the GOP/Nixon Administration of 1974.
I don’t know if it will be the GOP or DNC that picks up seats, but I would seriously doubt that either side is going to make serious gains. It just doesn’t strike me as a hot midterm election.
BrainGlutton:
I really couldn’t answer this without knowing just how Democrats campaigned in 1974. Did they actively attempt to tie their opponents to Nixon or Ford? Or is it possible that the guilt-by-association was in the voters’ minds even without that?
There’d be a long list if I didn’t want to avoid quibbling about the word ‘substantive.’ Iraq has stretched on for two more years without any apparent conclusion, and more people want us to get out. None of the individual scandals or crises have brought the administration down, but I think they’ve all decreased the administration’s pull and popularity for sure. Nobody here seems to be disputing the notion that Bush has no coattails. What has gone right for them in his second term? Roberts, Alito, and… what, Whittington not dying? My observation, based just on Clinton and Bush, is that in today’s political environment, everybody’s good and tired of the President after about six years, let alone eight.
I won’t dispute that too much. (Other than the ‘everybody’.)
I don’t doubt that the GOP could lose some seats based on their dismal border-protection performance, as some of the party not-so-faithful go to third parties, or stay home. But I don’t know that Iraq is a polarizing voter issue; the DNC hasn’t set themselves up as a the big antiwar party. (Nor do I think such a party would do well in the elections, so good on the DNC!)
The economy is doing pretty good, deficit is going down, Cheney capped some old dude, NSA wiretap issue…I dunno. I don’t see any of those throwing large amounts of votes to the DNC or away from the GOP. (Or vice-versa.)
I’m betting that it will be a fairly lackluster midterm, with modest voter turnout at best.
It’s an exaggerated ‘everybody.’
I agree that there doesn’t seem to be a defining midterm issue right now, and I don’t think the election results will be revolutionary. There have been a number of ‘minor’ issues in the last two years (Iraq, Terri Schiavo, Plame, Abramoff, etc.) that I think will help guarantee a Democratic gain.