I’d have to suggest Huckabee as well. He’s very charismatic and personable, unlike Romney and will attract independents and women. He has cred with the conservative wingnut crowd.
Romney is in a difficult position. He has the advantage of so many in his party despising Obama, but nobody really seems to have really warmed up to Romney. He and his campaign have made more than a few gaffes and missteps, but nothing truly devastating. The “Etch-A-Sketch” label though is going to be a hard one to shake. (pun not intended) Pawlenti, Portman, etc. are too milquetoast to energize anybody, while Ryan, Christie, and Rubio have baggage and would alienate moderates. So he really needs to have the charisma on his ticket that Huckabee could provide.
Portman, one of my two U.S. senators, is blander than bland, and I’m not convinced he could deliver Ohio if Romney weren’t going to carry it anyway (which he very well might). He is more or less a centrist and wouldn’t particularly help Romney on his right flank. He would be a safe but not especially advantageous pick.
Romney, or any similarly boring candidate, is in a lose-lose situation: He needs to spice up the total amount of interest of his ticket, but he also needs to avoid a VP who would eclipse him. These two goals are, of course, mutually contradictory.
Portman has moved up in Intrade to 16% though he is still behind Rubio. I think it would be a smart choice; the media pundits would swoon and give Romney a few days of positive coverage for making a statesmanlike decision. This re-positions his candidacy and gets moderates to take another look at him.
Romney has three broad options:
a)Pick someone who appeals to moderates without alienating his base
b)Pick someone who appeals to his base without alienating moderates
c)A dream pick who can appeal to both moderates and the base
Obviously c would be best and perhaps Rubio would fall in that category but perhaps not and he may not be available. Huckabee is another possibility but he may not be available either.
If c is not possible I think a is better than b for Romney. The polls are a bit all over the place right now but I still think Obama has a structural advantage of a few points. It’s Romney who needs to take calculated risks and appeal to moderates in the expectation that the base will be sufficiently motivated by the propsect of beating Obama.
Boring but highly qualified would do it. Conservative with very solid intellectual and public policy, especially budgetary policy, chops. From a swing state that he really needs to carry.
Sometimes the tactic is to go to VP candidate who serves as your Pit Bull, making the attacks that you have to appear too Presidential to make yourself, but that the VP choice can get away with … who would be good for that role?
I’m going with this Portman guy. Why, because I’ve never heard of him, and I follow politics pretty closely. So he perfectly fits the profile I laid out earlier – someone almost completely unknown with nothing really to lose who wants to play in the big leagues. So long as he’s not an embarrassment like Sarah Palin, that’s the best Romney can expect. All the serious players will be ducking his calls 'cause he’s a loser,
I’ll throw in one more outlier – Huckabee, because he’s already bee a loser and he has no political future to speak of, he would have nothing to lose by becoming Veep. And afterward, even if he loses, he can probably demand double his going rate at Fox.
I’m with some others here. I think Romney can count on the hard right’s hatred for Obama to carry them. He need someone either more centrist or someone who’s essentially a blank slate as far as national image goes.
Christie is to the left of Romney on some issues, isn’t he? Picking him would only piss off the right more. So far, Romney’s had trouble getting the right fired up for his candidacy. He needs those people motivated for this fall to work at phone banks, ring doorbells, give money, etc.
I think Mike Huckabee will be chosen *if *he wants to be on the ticket. I didn’t want to run for Pres this year, so he may be content to keep the TV gig.
Otherwise, Thune, Rice, or Portman are likely choices.
Marco Rubio, Susana Martinez, Mitch Daniels, and Bobby Jindal have all signaled or at least implied that they do not want to run as VP this year.
Paul Ryan probably wants to stay in The House given that Obama likely wins re-election. If interested, he’d be on the short list.
Bob McDonnell wants to be VP, but probably wont be chosen. Romney will already have issues with the female vote and McDonnell’s consideration of the transvaginal ultrasound requirement bill is a negative distraction.
Rick Santorum provided a trove of negative attacks on Romney during the primary campaign. That hasn’t stopped some VP picks in the past, but this campaign was exceptionally divisive.
I’m not sure if Jeb Bush want the VP slot or not, so don’t rule him out.
Chris Christie is likely too liberal and northeastern to pair with Romney, and he’s got some potential scandals brewing in New Jersey.
Its like the mating dance of the preying mantis. You can’t appear interested as in “desperate”, but you can’t be like “Fuck no, why would I climb aboard a sinking ship?” Gotta be like “This is a great honor, which I am reluctant to accept because I’m an 'awww shucks” kinda guy, but if my party and my country presses this laurel on to my brow, I will try to be worthy…"
All the choices have problems. Rubio would create almost as many problems as he would solve. On the one hand, the Pubbies will swear up, down and sidewise that they have no problems, none at all, with a Hispanic, of course not! On the other hand, they don’t want to be seen as “pandering”, pandering is bad, mmmkay? And, of course, the truth of the matter is that many of the Republican debase *do *have a problem with that.
Condi? Baggage. Between Iraq and a hard place. And she’d have to get married. To a man.
Christie is fat and obnoxious. Huckabee is fat, obnoxious and ignorant.
Right now, my money is on Portman, because he’s dull. Which is to say, not that he has any positive selling points, he just doesn’t have as many negatives.