Handicapping the Pennsylvania primary, 4/22/08

At this point, I’m just glad Pennsylvania’s finally going to be over after tomorrow. I’m voting before work…my polling place is about two blocks from my house.

God, it’ll be nice NOT to be the center of attention for a little while…I seriously don’t know how you Iowa and New Hampshire folks do it! I’m in primary overload after six weeks! I can’t imagine how I’d feel after six MONTHS of this…

Hell, I don’t even live in PA and I’m getting a little sick of it.

Random point: Tomorrow’s movie day. Cloverfield’s coming out on DVD. This means people who want to get it will have to leave the house anyhow

Every little bit of movement helps.

One other cause for greater optimism than I had at the time I made my prediction - the polls seem to be documenting a bump up in progress as a result of Obama weathering these recent travails and Clinton’s coming off a bit on the snide side. Moreover going into election day with everyone predicting that you’ll win perversely enough may make some less enthusiastic to come out for her.

Am I going to get to sleep tomorrow night?

Am I going to get to sleep tonight?!?

What time do polls close tonight?

8pm I believe.
Cite - it’s a pdf.

Obama has 1 vote in Allegheny County.

I was at the polling place when it opened. I can’t say that turnout was any different than usual. It is a small suburban polling place though.

It’s 8:00 pm. I’ll be voting later this morning, and I’ll let you know what the lines look like.

Yesterday, CNN was reporting a big surge in new voter registrations. This morning, NPR said PA election officials were expecting about twice the turnout they got in 2004. Does the polling capture new registrations and first-time primary voters very well? I’m wondering: if the pollsters pick their sample off previous primary voter rolls, and undercount new voters, they might be way off this time. [wishful thinking] So, if Obama gets a big enough margin among new voters, maybe he’ll pull out a squeaker?[/wishful thinking].

That’s not wishful thinking that’s what is on the minds of a lot of us poll-followers here on the SDMB. All polls account for a margin of error usually +/- 3 and with-in that you may find your new registrants. However, maybe not. The media has been pounding Pennsylvanians as has each candidate. I’d say the fence sitters are going to swing Obama and I say this in light of HRC’s recent comments about Obliterating Iranians, using Osama Bin Laden in one of her attack ads, and her basic use of GOP tactics.
Something can be said about toughening Obama up for the fight in the fall. I do not see any real evidence that he won’t be the nominee, and with endorsement, adter endorsement after endorsement he only strengthens his plight.

You see, I’ve said it before here on the boards, big party dems - upper echelon dems - who are backing Obama are doing so in my opinion because of what he stands for and what he has inspired in millions of people. In many ways this election is about a movement and not about a man, the movement is more important than the man. And by in large people understand that.

Are these just accidental slips, or are you really depressed about Obama’s chances, Philosphr? :stuck_out_tongue:

Doh :smack:

Must…

Get…

More…

COFFEE…

The way I understand it, individuals who are polled are first asked a series of questions which determines their likelyhood of actually casting a ballot. One of the questions asks if the person has voted in the past. That answer helps weight the response of that individual relative to the rest of the people being polled. So, in other words, the pollsters do try to take new voters into account. But, as with other factors, it is based on empirical evidence of the past and is subject to change.

I don’t see the undecideds breaking for Obama significantly. I think those folks’ll split pretty evenly between him and Clinton.

I’d say it’s too little, too late to make a difference, especially for today’s primary.

I appreciate your enthusiasm, I really do but, at least in the vast expanses of rural PA, Obama’s movement is too nebulous a concept to mean jack squat to working class whites without college educations. Obama’s skin color, now that’s something they understand.

It’s sad but true…The saddest part in my opinion is the negative campaigning and choice of negative icons Clinton is using against Obama. She may well take a victory, but I bet he keeps it close.

Is it over yet? Can I turn on the radio?

10 hours left man. :smiley:

Not according to Hillary. For her, it won’t end until August 28th. And even then I have my doubts.

Me too. I think they will have to call the brut squad in when they announce Barack Obama as the nominee - because she will insist that the tally is wrong and that she actually won. Not enough rolleyes in the world unfortunately for her antics this campaign season. I expected her to get down and dirty, but her BS as of the last few months is utter crap.