As of 5:00 PM, Drudge has early exit polling data with Clinton at 52% and Obama at 48%.
Let’s see how this plays out, shall we?
Two hours of polling left.
Hey does anyone know how accurate these boards have been in predicting the winner?and by what margin?
I thought they closed at 5 Eastern. Weren’t they finished an hour ago?
Those Exit numbers look really good for Obama, but I worry about Diebold.
Nope, they close at 8
I wish they’d say where they are doing this exit polling. If it’s Philly or Pittburgh, then that’s not so good news. If it’s Kentucky, then that’s GREAT news. Well, to me since I’m for Obama.
Yeah, I’m concerned about that too. It’s Drudge which, to me, sounds like Philly.
Why assume it’s only from one region? Why can’t it be state wide? It’s an exit poll, not reported votes.
The exit polling is statewide, from 40 precincts. It is not, however, weighted by sub-groups so it tends to over- and under-sample key constituencies. So far, Obama has done better in exit polling than he has done at the real polls in almost every state. That said, these numbers still look good. NRO actually has them reversed, with Obama in the lead. Either way, it puts the real margin at a single-digit Clinton victory. I think single digits is universally seen as an Obama “win,” in terms of impact on the superdelegates (the only voting group that now matters).
Apparently, the early exits consistently overestimate Obama’s support, to the tune of 7 points, on average. Which means that a singe digit contest is not out of the question, but it may well be a 10-12 point Clinton win, when all is said and done.
I’m putting a movie in, not until the netowrks begin calling for one or the other am I going to getmy tizzies in a tizzy. 
Heck, I’ll settle for a 12% Clinton win. As long as it’s under 20%, I’m perfectly happy.
Wasn’t 2004 sufficient to sour everyone on the reliability of early exit polls?
IIRC, they’ve been poor predictors in this primary season as well.
I’m still saying Clinton by 12%. I’ll add to that: Clinton by 84-74, delegate-wise.
I propose we all do a shot every time a commentator says “cliffhanger” or a near-synonym.
And a shot for “momentum”?
And “expectations.”
Just tripped over a link to this column which has a chart comparing this season’s Dem exit polls with the actual results.
For whatever reason, the early exits have a strong pro-Obama bias. For instance, the early exits in Ohio had Obama by 2, and the ultimate results were Clinton by 10.
OK, I’ll be the first to say it - Every damn thing that’s been reported so far points to an Obama victory. Not a victory in the total vote, but in the expectations, which is all that matters.
Shot!
ABC calls PA for Clinton per Drudge…