Into the Great Wide Open: the Dem Race after Mississippi

Great Debates
1

Now that Obama’s won Mississippi and we can look forward to forty days without a primary, it’s time for us political junkies to [del]check into Betty Ford[/del] assess where the race stands now, or at least open a new thread about it because the previous threads are many pages long.

According to RealClearPolitics, Obama’s got a 163-vote lead in pledged delegates, 1403-1240, with 584 pledged delegates still unallocated: 566 pledged delegates in states that have yet to vote, and 18 unresolved delegates from states where the voting’s taken place. (In case you’re wondering, those 18 are: CO - 10, DC -1, HI - 1, Dems Abroad - 3, RI - 1, and OH -2. Pretty much every source I’ve seen besides RCP has put that last RI delegate in Hillary’s column, btw.) Plus there’s Edwards’ 26 delegates.

Meanwhile, Hillary’s superdelegate lead, once up near 100, is down to 36 in RCP’s count, 247-211, with 338 superdelegates still uncommitted.

So the running total is Obama 1614, Hillary 1487, with 2025 needed to win.

Here’s the remaining calendar:

March 12 - April 21: six weeks of nothin’.

April 22: Pennsylvania (158 delegates).
May 3: Guam (4).
May 6: North Carolina (115), Indiana (72).
May 13: West Virginia (28)
May 20: Oregon (52), Kentucky (51).
June 1: Puerto Rico (55).
June 3: Montana (16), South Dakota (15).

Th-th-th-that’s all, folks. Except for superdelegates and the convention.

PA, OR, KY, SD, and Guam are all closed primaries.

So, what happens now?

First of all, do the candidates spend the next six weeks touring every hamlet in Pennsylvania? Or do they find something else to do with their lives for awhile?

Second, do the superdelegates make a significant move in the next few weeks, either evening up the contest, or putting Obama so far in front that Team Hillary realizes they’re cooked?

Third, how about the voters? Are Pennsylvanians, North Carolinians, Indianans, etc. still excited that the race is finally coming their way, or are they ready for this thing to be over?

And finally, how about the campaign press corps and the pundits? What on earth will they fill up the next six weeks of airtime with? And will it drive the rest of us insane?

Mind you, for some of us that’s a pretty short trip. :slight_smile:

2

I think that over the next 6 weeks, you’ll see the Clinton’s blanket PA - and trying to build up the importance of that primary. You’ll see Obama’s team do just the opposite… Make appearances and all that, for sure - but their goal is to downplay the imporance of the state and with that in mind, they’re not going to spend every waking hour there. And they shouldn’t. Clinton will win PA, and any delagates she nets from the day will be erased in North Carolina and Indiana - just like Mississippi and Wyoming wiped out her gain in Texas and Ohio.

3

All I can say is that the prospect of my birth state, Kentucky, playing a role in selecting the candidate is positively surreal.

4

I like your summary, but just wanted to add that Michigan and Florida might get a re-vote. This is one topic that will be discussed a lot I imagine, in the four weeks of inactivity.

From what I hear in the news though, the new primaries wouldn’t happen until late May at the very earliest.

5

Puerto Rico’s got a fair few delegates, doesn’t it?

6

But no electoral-college votes.

7

This is relevant to the conversation how? :dubious:

8

Nitpick: she had no gain in Texas. Obama’s several percent win in the caucuses netted him more delegates than her win in the primaries, so Texas actually gave a couple more to Obama than to Clinton.

9

Clinton lost one vote today for certain. Spitzer was a Superdelegate, and he was already pledging his vote for Hillary. So much for that.

10

I just wanted to make that clear for Quartz, who is a foreigner: There is no necessary connection between a state’s/territory’s electoral votes and its partisan delegation to the Dem or Pub nominating convention.

11

Doesn’t Paterson just take over that slot?

12

Paterson is already a superdelegate and a Clinton supporter, although I don’t know if he has declared anything. So the DNC could appoint a new superdelegate to take Spitzer’s place if it so chooses, creating one potential swing vote.

13

OK. But then doesn’t NY get a new LtGov with the same rights and privileges appertaining thereto?

14

The man who will become acting Lieutenant Governor is a Republican. I heard people saying that the DNC will have the option of picking one new superdelegate, but I haven’t read that anyplace.

15

Bizarrely, if Paterson leaves the state, the Republican Lt Gov gets to take power. He’s literally under siege.

16

If there were a coup, he wouldn’t even see it coming.
I keed, I keed !!

17

I do think that Obama will play hard for every vote in Pennsylvania all the while downplaying expectations. It is a hard sell for him. A closed primary of blue collar workers. Ideal Clinton ground.

The more interesting question to me is how Team Clinton’s current tactics of hatchetman/women divisive politics will play out. The tactic is to play hard and use racial divisiveness as much as they feel can without actually getting Hillary’s hands dirty themselves in order to get that famous “White people who won’t vote for a Black man” vote out in Pennsylvania. Then to use a big victory there, allegedly completing her run of big battleground states, as her argument to the supers. Especially if she can win enough there to get close in the popular vote. (Can she overtake him there? Maybe if you credit Florida and for sure if you credit Michigan.)

But that tactic can really sour some of the supers on her before then. If they keep it up some may start to come over to the Obama side in greater numbers before then. Enough, perhaps, to make the narrative one of her chances fading and chill her turn-out. Pelosi’s slap-down to the Clintons’ VP tactic is a hint that it may only be a few divisive ploys away.

His best option of course is to get Pennsylvania close. How he does that I don’t know.

18

For hardcore political junkies, note that the Iowa county conventions are this Saturday. At this time the 14 Edwards “virtual delegates” from Iowa will almost certainly be re-allocated to Clinton and Obama, based on how the Edwards caucus delegates vote. For those who keep fantasizing about “brokered conventions”, this is as close as you’re gonna get.

19

The math is still very much against Darth-Clinton. She’s not thinking clearly, or at least she’s making the mistake of listening to her advisors who handled Geraldine like a wet noodle. Silly Clinton, trix are for kids. She didn’t fool anyone, and the supers will begin to break Obama way with in a few days to a week. Making people in PA notice and wonder why.

20

We had that at one point in California. It made for an “interesting” time. :smiley: