This is probably news to no one on the board, but CNN’s “poll of polls” shows Clinton with a 7-point lead over Obama in PA, with 9 percent undecided. How reliable have CNN’s polls-of-polls been in the past? Seven percent with two weeks to go seems to bode well for Obama.
Having watched the polling game enough to build up at least some intuition about who’s good and who’s not so good, I tend to look at which pollster as well as what the numbers are.
Survey USA is particularly good, and IF last week’s poll was the first of a weekly series of polls, they may have a new PA poll out in the morning. So I’m waiting on that.
I would put only the most minimal weight on ARG, PPP, and Muhlenberg. Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, and Strategic Vision are pretty good. Research 2000 is very good, but they’ve not done a PA poll recently.
That’s about how I put things, myself. That said, Obama does have the edge on getting people to the polls, so he usually outperforms his polling, except in the most heated battles.
Which this really is. Hum.
Still, as long as his campaign sticks with, ‘If we lose by less than 10%, it’s a victory.’ as their expected margin, there’s pretty much no way they can lose.
Yeah, they seem out in left field, compared to everyone else. But there were a number of states, especially on Super Tuesday, when they were way off from where the pack of pollsters was, and they were right anyway. California, Massachusetts, to a lesser extent NJ.
And their latest polls have Clinton up by 6, 5, and 8, respectively.
All of the polls in the last week have had Obama with-in +/- 8
I’m not putting much stock in the SUSA poll. I’ve worked with the quinnipiac folks when I was an instructor in CT…it’s daunting work, but those folks do a decent job at their craft.
I’m not believing the SUSA poll, but I’m not disbelieving it, either. It it was anyone else, I’d regard it as trash - but like I said, they’ve bucked the trend and been right in doing so a few times already this season. Nothing against the Q-poll folks; like I said, I think they’re pretty good. But SUSA is almost unnervingly good at times. Even if it’s SUSA against the field, I’m more than a bit hesitant to bet on the field.
I have a hard time understanding how different polls can not only be so different but track in such strongly different directions. Be that as it may … if she really does perform like that or better then the fork might need to loosened a small bit. Winning by 20% could give her the chance at running the table she’d need.
It seems this year that from Sunday until Tuesday of the election, all the undecideds break one way. In New Hampshire, it was Hillary. In Wisconsin, Obama. I think the polls on the 21st will show about a 10 point Clinton spread, and depending on the break it will be either 5 or 15 when the votes are tallied.
I don’t have a lot of faith in general primary polls until the Democratic nominee is decided. I have a hard time believing that either side of the Democratic divide is going to show 25-33% defection. Maybe I’m wrong but I’ll worry more about it come September.
I cannot begin to tell you how offensive I find this. It’s nothing short of legalized extortion. It literally reminds me of the damn mob!
Oh, but it gets worse – they’re also accusing Obama of being racist, funneling all of his millions to the white television station owners while refusing to pay bribe money to the poor black folk on the streets. :eek:
So they should expect to get a piece of it? It’s like when someone wins the lottery and his friends get all pissed off that he won’t share his new-found wealth. What the hell makes them think they deserve it?
This is insane! And it’s exactly the kind of thing that Obama has been campaigning about – changing the long-standing “buying” of elections bullshit.
What a crock! Millions of people across this nation have been volunteering for this campaign, digging into their own pockets to fly from state to state, buying campaign materials, pounding the pavement, using their cell minutes to make calls. What the hell makes these people think they should be any different? Oh yeah, they’re “poor”. As if no poor people in any other state have volunteered their time knocking on their neighbors’ doors in an effort to improve people’s lives. This “what’s in it for me” attitude makes me sick.
And I hope he sticks to his guns, loss or no loss. I say Philadelphia can go F themselves.
Oh, so you support him, but are completely ignoring the bigass CHANGE signs that are the backdrop of his campaign. So in other words, you’re greedy and you’re stupid.
There simply aren’t enough rolleyes in the universe for this crap.