Handicapping the Pennsylvania primary, 4/22/08

Ah. Here’s a link concerning the L.A.Times/Bloomberg poll.

And the results are in.

Hillary is done either way and has been for quite a while but the way things were going before bittergate PA could have been the knockout punch.

LA Times/Bloomberg:

Why aren’t big dem upper echelon party folks telling Hillary to quell her McCain sounding attitude? She is basically supporting McCain’s attacks by reaffirming them on Obama. WTF?

Because neither candidate has to listen to them.

In a delegate calculation, it’s estimated to be a dead heat:

This is another scenerio we have seen played out before and before. Tt’s not necessarily the sum of the people voting for you but the districts they are voting from. And Obama has statistically done much better over time in those districts than Clinton had - Texas is the most recent example of this. This PA primary is going to be a wash…most likely. I’d love to see Obama pull a squeaker in the pop votes…but even if he doesn’t he is still far enough ahead to not sweat too much.

I think it’ll all come down to ‘getting out the vote’. I hope Hillary keeps pressing this ‘bitter’ thing. It’ll make people less interested in coming out for her.

In a strange way this recent flap may help Obama some (especially if the “arrogant intellectual” charge doesn’t stick long term). The game is expectations. Going in to voting day charging up the hill raises expectations of a possible win and certainly of a narrow loss. This lowers that expectation and yet will already be old news by voting day … increasing the possibility of a “better than expected” performance. Clinton does worse than “expected” and the pressure on her to call it a day grows …

I don’t think even the expectations have much of an effect anymore. Look what happened after Hillary won Texas (the popular vote, anyway) and Ohio. A big splash for a day or so, then everyone looked at the numbers and said, hey, you know what - Hillary’s still way behind, with a diminishing set of opportunities to close the gap.

After PA, it’ll be even more true, even if she wins by 15%.

Not really what happened RTF. If Obama had won the popular vote in Texas, even by 0.1%, then Hillary would have been out. There were, what 50 suoerdelegates, waiting to jump into his camp. Richardson had announced beforehand that he would throw his weight behind whoever was in the lead after that. He, and many others, held off because she exceeded expectations. By counts she was more in the hole than before. But the expectation game kept her running.

Senator Kerry is also endorsing Obama. I heard him speak at a party 'do a week and a half ago and he had some very good words for Obama. I’ll have to go back and listen to the speech again for specifics.

I’ve heard some grousing about Hillary at the ground level, and the sentiment (at least among Obama supporters, so take this for what it’s worth) is that Hillary is coming across as both desperate and entitled to win, like a girl who can’t understand why she’s not going to be elected prom queen, but thinks she “deserves” to, anyway.

The shrillness isn’t helping either, and that has nothing to do with her gender.

Robin

George Stephanopolos this morning noted Clinton’s national favorability rating is at an all time low as is her trustworthyness rating at it’s all time low. Obama is leaps and bounds over her in trustoworthyness and that will certainly aid him in the coming weeks. He thinks this whole thing will be over in early may, with wins in IN and NC by Obama.

Apparently the good people of Pennsylvania are so insulted by Obama that Clinton needed to import some outrage :wink:

Which is all just as well since her ad is falling flat:

This could be a BIG endorsement in PA…

American Hunters & Shooters Association endorses Obama!

Not as big as say, the NRA or Ducks Unlimited, but it’s a very good catch.

I just have to say: DAMN I’ll be glad when the Pennsylvania primary is over.

That and Hillary’s recent “Screw-Em” article in Huffingtons - Just go to their home site to see the front page :slight_smile:

Bruce Springsteen endorses Obama.

Well, I guess it’s all over now! :wink:

Obama was born to run.

Latest Newsmax/Zogby Poll: Deadlocked in Pennsylvania

The survey, which was conducted April 15-16, 2008 and came out of the field midway through Wednesday’s contentious debate between the two candidates in Philadelphia, shows Clinton at 45% and Obama at 44%, with 12% either wanting someone else or left undecided.

The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby’s on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 601 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.