I think taking the outlier as being more accurate than proven good source polls from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen, and others is not exactly that right thing to do, even though they were fairly accurate for another primary.
I think PA is going to be a sqeaker, I even think Obama might actually pull it off. We’ll see.
I can’t keep any of them straight. How’s Rasmussen? They’ve also got PA in a near statistical tie; Clinton 47, Obama 44. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
It’ll go 55-45 Clinton. It’ll be more significant for her as a media victory, and a convince-superdelegates victory, than anything else.
She can’t catch up in pledged delegates, short of impossible margins of victory. So it doesn’t really matter much to her if she wins 59-41 or 53-47, because either way the headline the next day will be CLINTON WINS! If she can turn that momentum into superdelegates and better performances in the remaining primaries then she might have a chance. If she can’t, then she doesn’t. The PA feather in her cap may help her turn the supers. All that will be decided in smoky back rooms - as long as she wins, by any margin.
But if she were to lose PA (which I do not believe for an instant she will, but still) of course, it’s over. As tenacious as she has been so far, I think at that point she might quit, or at least just play out the string gracefully.
If she wins 53-47, Rick, it’s over for her. The headlines will be ‘Clinton has no hope’.
No way. A win, even of one point for Clinton, keeps this a horse race as far as the media is concerned. Dragging this out to the convention is hunky-dory for them. Clinton dropping out, or broadcast as a loser, is bad for business, and I don’t expect to see it unless she actually loses PA.
It’ll remain a Horse race until the convention is she wins PA. But if it’s close, the media will milk it for a day or two, but then once she get’s trounced in IN and NC and others she’ll be leaned on to get out.
I bet she steps down before the convention $1-one Virtual Buck.
This has happened in many other states this primary season. It’s hardly unique to Pennsylvania.
Unless she wins big in PA, the same thing will happen next week as happened back in the first week of March. Wednesday’s headlines will be “Clinton Wins PA!” but Thursday’s stories will be “But She’s Still Way Behind.” Only now it’ll have the added element of “With Time Running Out.”
Why didn’t you just say that the first time? (The posts are identical.) Anyway, I think **Phlosphr ** answered it very well.
A Hillary win by lower single digits won’t get the “Clinton Wins PA!” headline - it will get a “Clinton Squeaks By” headline and talking heads immediately talking about how her campaign has no hope.
Realistically she needs an over 20 pt victory to begin her run of the table that gets her close enough in the popular vote to make an argument to the supers. Over ten and supers will likely hold positions a bit longer - at least until after NC and IN. 5-ish or under and the trickle of supers becomes a torrent.
Well, the AP has finally noticed that the math is against her:
I think she is being very foolish. She still has a robust and dynamic career ahead of her, which may yet include a Presidency. But the path to that outcome depends on her making a sacrifice for the good of the Party and the country. And not much of a sacrifice at that, merely abandoning a cause that, if not lost, is gravely wounded. But if she drags this thing out, she runs the risk of being seen as Nader in Prada. Doom.
More musings on SUSA’s being the outlier in the PA polls (and the slap of cold water across the face). Seems like they are the pollster fairly consistently favoring Clinton in the next several contests. Indiana has the poll of polls at Clinton by 2.2 - SUSA has her by 16. North Carolina poll of polls is Obama by 14.5; SUSA has him up by only 10.
So there is something consistent to their technique that is capturing more “likely Democratic voters” as being for Hillary than other polling outfits do. I don’t know what it is but I just hope that they are wrong and the others are all right. Or this could drag on yet.
Why didn’t I, you ask? My answer here.
Okay boys and girls, the primary finally is just two days away. Close enough to start making your final predictions. We know the polling data, we’ve seen the debate, we’ve heard the gaffes and the pundits pontifications. What are your predictions?
I explain the polling divergences as a function of the difficulty this year in deciding who is a likely Democratic voter. There are many newly registered as Democrats in PA - young voters and independents, Obamacans and those who have listened to Rush, people who just love Hillary or hate Obama and those who see him as inspirational - will they come out and if so how will they go?
I’m guessing that Obama’s stumbles of late are going to keep some of the Obamacans home and that the elderly will come out well for Hillary. She wins by about 10. If it stays a single digit I’ll be thrilled.
Your turn!
Ah, the old “framing the expectations” game once again. Yes, if a loss can be spun to the supers as being actually a win as you suggest, then you’d have a point. But remember, they didn’t get into their jobs by having that level of naivete.
elucidator, doesn’t the same “there’s a future ahead beyond this campaign” argument hold even more strongly for a 46-year-old in his first term (who’s taking serious hits about his inexperience and preparedness) than it does for a 60-year-old in her second? If he’s good enough now anyway, he’ll be even better in 4 or 8 or 12 years, won’t he?
Either way, it’ll all be over in just a few weeks. You don’t have to let democracy play out for all that much longer - just be patient, my friend.
They’ve been the most accurate in general throughout this campaign. At least if you read Kos, they have.
For a contrarian view, go with Rasmussen and their final polls showing Obama leads in New Hampshire and Texas and California, to name a few. Since they show Clinton leading in PA, the situation there looks pretty good for Obama, doesn’t it?
I still say Hillary by a minimum of 12, probably more. I believe Obama will do worse than expected, at least on these boards.
Clinton, by less than 8. Possibly less than 4.
I’ll be shocked if it’s that close. From someone who spends a lot of time in PA, believe me, the Pennsyltucky mindset is real and pervasive. These folks won’t vote for Obama for one reason only. Oh, they may enunciate any number of problems they have with him but, when pressed issue by issue, are unable to explain the contradictions in their acceptance and unspoken rationalization of Clinton’s positions, actions, or statements when compared to Obama’s, choosing to revert, as a last resort, to idiocy like flag pins, since it’d be imprudent to admit to pollsters or the media that they “won’t vote for a nigger” no matter what.