I’m no Trump fan, but Wow! A bunch of leftist folks upthread are smokin’ some truly amazing stuff.
The *worst *thing the Ds could do is try to impeach Trump. That’s how you get Arpaio or Bannon or some other quasi-Nazi in 2020 as the Avenging Rightist to finally kill off the Criminal Left who tried to stage a Constitutional Coup. Trump’s supporters already have a bunker mentality. If anyone attacks the Dear Leader they’ll defend him to their death. And take the Republic down with them.
The stuff I’m reading upthread sounds exactly like what you hear from losing parties in banana republics or places like Turkey & Serbia. Not the US.
Sure, everybody sane both R & D should keep their eyes open for overt sticky-fingered theft. But it’s gonna have to be far bigger and more obvious than anything ever seen in the past to be big enough to act on in today’s febrile climate.
The Rs have significant structural benefits that probably guarantee they keep Congress through 2020. The Ds need to work on being sensible and professional and building a base that fully includes the white working & middle class, not on being wild-eyed bomb throwers obsessed with chasing their personal white (with orange top) whale named Trump.
My take is the various factions of the R establishment will push Trump out in 2020 unless Trump gets real lucky over the next 3 years and totally delivers their goods while remaining wildly popular with his base. Trump’s the ultimate RINO and if he pays off for the Rs between now and 2020 they might let him stay through 2024. If not, he’ll be out.
Trump himself may not be much interested in continuing after 2020. Depends on how much fun he’s had and how much loot he’s gathered. And how his health is doing. One thing money doesn’t buy much of is increased longevity.
Of course it’s upsetting for you to see people speculating on Trump’s not filling out his entire term. So upsetting, apparently, that you have no way of dealing with the anxiety this causes you other than to attribute ‘butt-hurtedness’ or ‘the influence of drugs’ or ‘banana republicanism’ (!) to those so speculating.
Your emotions have blinded you to the fact that many who believe Trump won’t finish his term don’t claim that he’ll be impeached, but instead that he’ll be induced to resign. Because–as has already been pointed out by those doing the speculating–it would be more advantageous to Republicans in Congress if they don’t have to pull the I-cord.
As for the concept that it’s cuhhhhhhhRAAAAzy to believe that the GOP may prefer to see Trump go, and to consider the likeliest means by which this might be achieved: well, time will tell, as the saying goes. We’ve seen plenty of indicators that the establishment GOP sees Trump in a light far different from the light in which they’ve seen previous Republican, or should I say “Republican,” Presidents. Pondering the exit of Bush I or Bush II during their own terms might have been ‘out there’—but the same can scarcely be said of conjectures about Trump.
Try to calm down and actually read the posts. You’ve each posted as if you’ve seen none of the thread.
If you read even a small sample of the rest of my hundreds of political posts you’ll see I’m a pretty devout Progressive Democrat. But one who hasn’t had a brain-ectomy either. Unlike too many commentators of both left and right around here I’m (usually) able to distinguish between what I wish will happen and what I predict will happen.
If I had a magic wand to depose Trump I’d be inclined to wave it. Assuming I could control the backlash.
We agree that Trump isn’t a Republican. I’ve said repeatedly that he hijacked the machinery of the R party to get himself elected as the one and only member of the Trump party. If indeed he becomes an unequivocally obvious liability to the rest of the Rs they’ll be inclined to jettison him.
Where we differ is I think they’ll decide to do it in 2020 through the nominating process or Trump simply “deciding” not to run. Not through doing something extraordinary on a faster timetable that’d be *very *attention attracting. Airing dirty laundry is almost never helpful to the side doing it.
As I said, if Trump really goes off the deep end and starts babbling incoherently about nuking Freeedonia or tries to inject Trump industries into someplace obvious, like selling him all the military bases for a dollar so he can lease them back to DoD at full price then all bets are off. But the odds of that are low. They might well be tens of thousands of times higher than the odds were on Obama or Bush43 doing the same kind of thing. But that just means they’ve gone from millions to one against down to hundreds to one against.
Yes, the man is a psycho and a thief. If he was Emperor I’d be a *lot *more concerned. Like leading part of the revolution level concerned. But he’s not Emperor and the entire rest of the system is standing in the way of his becoming one.
As I said in the other thread, liberals seem to have a very rich (if unsatisfying) fantasy life. A lot of it is involved with imagining Trump being impeached, arrested or forced to resign. But I guess whatever makes them happy(-ier) and prevents a deeper psychological crisis is good.
If a married president can emotionally manipulate a young intern, **** her with a cigar in the White House, ejaculate on her dress, and then lie about it to the entire nation, including perjure, and still evade impeachment . . .
Trump will be fine.
I know that disappointments many of you, but The Donald is staying in the White House for a very long time. Perhaps eight more years.
The R rank and file certainly have demonstrated plenty of rich fantasy life over the last 12ish years as well. The fact so many think of Trump as an R or on the side of the working man is a sign many of them haven’t suddenly given up the fantasy habit.
I am not a believer in equivalence. Neither party is 100% grounded in reality. But over the last 20 years the right has been far more ideology-overcomes-reality than the left. There is a difference between believing 80% in reality vs. just 8% in reality.
Triumphalism is unbecoming to all of us. If indeed Trump proves to be a big con there will be a lot of people wondering how they got taken in.
There are already bills floating around. Obviously, they are hopeless without GOP support.
I disagree with this. He is a Republican. Twenty years ago, the GOP would have laughed at him. But now they embraced him and elected him. He is undeniably the leader of the Republican party as it now stands. There might be some holdover Republicans that don’t like the direction that their party has gone, but they are not the party anymore.
I was one of those, and I left the party (though I did it pre-Trump) because it wasn’t what I signed on for anymore.
Actually I am dealing with it by pointing out that you have no evidence, and that trying to impeach without evidence would blow up in the Dems’ faces, and by pointing and laughing at the fact that you have no evidence.
He isn’t going to resign either, and the GOP in Congress has no desire to pull any cord.
The GOP won’t impeach Trump for the same reason they wouldn’t have instantly impeached Hillary if she had won the election. The US political system doesn’t work that way, no matter what the idle revenge fantasies of the Left.
Yes, it will. It will tell that I am right, and you aren’t.
I’ve read all the posts. The problem is one that is common with the Left - they honestly and sincerely cannot understand any point of view except their own. This is because they have no practice - the MSM never challenges them, and the left-wing notions of “diversity” and “tolerance” means trying to shout down or shut down any opinion that is outside the range of liberal to ultra-liberal.
Trump is not going to resign, the GOP has no reason to impeach him, and the Dems have no evidence that will justify impeachment as anything besides an attempt to get by foul means what they couldn’t by fair.
You would acknowledge though that the current president is considerably more likely to resign or be impeached than previous recent presidents considering the active investigations surrounding him though, right? Your statements here seem to be rooted in the present, which is fair, but considering how much surveillance there has been of Trump’s circle, there is a non-zero chance that the intelligence community is building a case (or already has built a case) that would destroy him. In fact the betting markets put this at about even odds right now.
All parties in all countries evolve over time. The US Republicans have changed more in the last, say, 15 years than they did in the previous, say, 50. The biologists call that “punctuated equilibrium”. Change happens in fits and starts, not as a smooth oozing over time from A to B.
From the POV of “Republican is as Republican does (or did most recently)”, you’re dead on. Trump *is *the leader and at least some of his “values” *do *personify what the party stands for right now.
OTOH, any party is more than, and more stable than, just its titular figurehead and its voters. Think about the long-time professional politicians, the congressional staffers, the high level bureaucrats, the think tanks, the academics, the big donors, the pet media, etc. All of those have a hand on the Ouija puck too.
My bet is Trump’s nastier pronoucements find a comfortable place in the post 2016 version of Republicanism. But I think the lip service he’s paying to (white) working class voters isn’t going to stick with the party. It certainly won’t stick to the level of them actually doing something to substantially help the working class.
If the Ds can come up with a credible way to turn the conversation from racial & social to purely economic issues and can get Joe Pickuptruck to recognize his interests lie more with working class people of all races than with white professionals and plutocrats then Trumpism will prove to be a passing fad within greater movement Republicanism.
We shall see. As Yogi probably never said: “It’s hard to make predictions. Especially about the future.”
I believe this also. And I believe the case(s) will be crafted very carefully in order to achieve a precise outcome. Like dominoes. I’m willing to bet that before the end of this term, there will be multiple indictments of people closely associated with or members of the current administration. I believe that this “scandal” has the potential to eclipse Watergate, and that there will be a lot of collateral damage.
OK, I was thinking you were talking about a generic bill that would make releasing tax returns a requirement for running for president.
But I’m still not sure such a bill would fly. Congress might be able to exercise subpoena power, but passing a bill for this purpose? Where does the constitution give Congress that power?
Trump is less likely to resign than, say, Obama or Bush. He is about as likely to resign as Clinton was, and for some of the same reasons. A lot of Clinton’s self-image was based on being re-elected, or re-electable. A lot, probably most, of Trump’s desire to be President is ego gratification.
And he is less likely to be impeached than Hillary would have been. The GOP controls Congress. (All this stuff about them keeping Trump around just because he serves their purpose, and how they will cut him loose the instant he resists their agenda, is foolishness.) Any President is going to be subject to these kind of fishing expeditions to try to drum up some scandal. It’s SOP now. Witness the notion of passing a law forcing him to reveal his tax returns. That’s not going to happen, if for no other reason that it is pretty obviously a fishing expedition to try to find scandal. The notion that he broke the law in some way, and got away with it until now and the Dems are nobly exposing graft and corruption that was overlooked - don’t make me laugh.
The SDMB overestimates, a lot, how much Trump is hated, and how much the haters will overlook if it just gets Trump out of office. The moderate middle, and even moderate lefties, are not going to stand for impeaching him just because.
What goes around, comes around. If in the unlikely event that the Democrats take over Congress, and then impeach based on Trumped-up charges :D, guess what is going to happen to the next Democratic President when he or she does not control Congress? Do you really want to play the game that way? And don’t expect cries of “No fair when you do it, because Trump” to get you any sympathy. You saw how that worked out with the filibuster of Gorsuch.
Look, I get it - you hate Trump beyond reason, and you want to get him out of office no matter what. Acting beyond reason, and impeachment with no specific charges is beyond reason, is not good for the country or even for the Democrats, in the long run.
I’m waiting for the Russian piss videos, although I expect that Trump will blame it on Obama having previously slept on that bed. Even then, as long as Trump signs what the GOP wants him to sign, they will hold off on dumping the Trump.
If we get a democratic president in the white house who has consiperd with russia to undermine our elections, then I hope you impeach them.
You really don’t get that this is not a partisan thing, don’t you?
That Trump is uniquely unqualified for office.
If Trump is impeached or resigns, who does that leave us, Pence, right?
Now, how stupid do you think that liberals are that they would look to remove Trump from office, not realizing that there is another conservative sitting in the wings, ready to take over.
I don’t like his policies, I don’t like the direction he plans on taking this country, but that’s just politics, and I would feel the same way about any other conservative president.
Trump is uniquely different. He is profiteering off the office, he has no idea what he is doing when it comes to actually running things. If it comes out that he had personal involvement in the russian deal, that’s a bit different.
Now, as far as resigning, do you think that someone who says “I thought this job would be easier” is more or less likely than someone who knew the job that they were getting into when they ran for office?
This false equivalency, and “you would do it too” crap is just the dumbest line of argument possible, but then, it being in the defense of trump, is actually about par for the course.
Besides, if we are going to do a “your side did it too” then your side started it with the partisan witch hunt of Bill Clinton, and that is assuming that trump’s impeachment process doesn’t come from, and is not largely confirmed by republicans in the first place.
Look, I hate Trump to the precise degree that he deserves, and like I said, the betting markets have his leaving office prior to the end of his term at approximately even odds (which I think is about right). If you’re that certain that he won’t be removed, you can likely make some nice change.
If everything stays exactly where it is now, he absolutely won’t leave office. But, if the intelligence community comes out with a concrete case, I absolutely expect the GOP to do the right thing. If they do not, they risk long term disaster as people like me, who would (and has in the not to distant past) absolutely vote for a Republican president will be lost forever.
I think if there is concrete evidence of collusion between Trump and the Russians, they will do the right thing. Maybe not for the right reasons, but at that point, I don’t much care.
