Have the seeds for a Paul Ryan nomination been planted?

John Boehner came out today and said he supports Paul Ryan as the nominee if they go to a brokered convention.

Now I know it’s only Boehner speaking on his own, but I could see him being something of a poster boy for the frustrated establishment, an elder statesman who can be the voice of reason to begin the healing process within the party

Paul Ryan on Tuesday didn’t rule anything out when he said:

The GOP should open the convention with Ryan performing this old classic.

Boehner couldn’t run his own caucus as Speaker, I don’t think he’d have any more luck with unruly delegates. If they need to go with a dark horse, Ryan might make as much sense as anyone. Such a move would come in spite of Boehner.

What’s his beef with Kasich? Both being from Ohio, that surprises me.

Wrong color.

Ryan is also orange?

He couldn’t run his caucus because it’s filled with the anti-establishment nutjobs. The right-wing and tea partiers and anti-intelligence folks were against him. Like I said, he could be the poster boy for bringing the party back to its established roots.

And there aren’t going to be a bunch of anti-establishment nutjobs at the convention?

Yes, but the presumption is that they’ll be split and the establishment will swoop in to stop Trump (and/or Cruz) with their own nominee. Or rather, *if *the nutjobs are split, the establishment sees that as their opportunity to be the grown-ups in the room and retake control of the situation.

No, Boehner.

What I’m not seeing is that if Trump is say 200 votes short in Cleveland, are these delegates, who presumably are loyal Trumpians, going to peel off in sufficient number to give the nomination to someone else? Or are they banking on everybody not pledged to Trump voting for a dark horse after the first ballot? Much as I would like to see it happen, I can’t see it happening.

This could also be the seed planting for a third-party run. Less likely at this stage, however,it’s being discussed in DC tomorrow.

I’m just surprised to see John Boehner, probably one of the GOP establishment’s most visible victims of right-wing nuttery, coming out in support of someone who isn’t even on the presidential primary ballots. I’m just wondering if there’s something more to it. A trial balloon even.

They are not necessarily loyal Trumpians. The candidates themselves only choose I think it was 14% of the delegates. In most states they are still picked at the state convention, and are merely bound (in theory) by the results of the primary for the first one vote (or two, depending on the state). As has been discussed elsewhere, there is the potential for these delegates to even renege on the first-ballot pledge if the rules were changed to allow it. It’s widely expected that because Trump’s support mainly comes from outside the mainstream of the party that he’ll have very few actual supporters among the delegates who will most likely be required to only vote for him at least once, as they are generally chosen from the most active and supportive party members of the local/state community.

“No, John, we don’t want Ryan. We want YOU!” :slight_smile:

Its suicide. One of the big reasons Trump is winning is that the GOP faithful aren’t faithful. They feel the GOP has broken their trust. To then nominate someone else at the convention will have them staying home in droves. (yes, I know, staying home in droves) or scribbling TRUMP across their ballot and prove their point that the GOP isn’t interested in them.

“If people want to stay home, you can’t stop them.” - Yogi Berra

The real question would be that if they uncommit from Trump wil they also be anti-Cruz and anti-Rubio?

Hmm. Maybe we should keep things remotely within reality. Delegates are bound by State rules afaik and the idea that the national convention rules committee can just make up anything they feel like is just silly.

GOP nominates Trump: they could win, tho if they lose (which is a decent amount more likely), they bounce back 4-8 years later.

GOP denies to nomination to person with the most votes/delegates (likely to be Trump): party forever loses a ton of voters.

Their policies (mostly) stink, but they’re not stupid people.


I suppose infinitely is “a decent amount”. The party has an interesting choice- nominate a sure loser and lose 2016, or steal the nomination from him and have a slightly better chance at winning 2016 and risk losing the racist component of their base. Looks like we’ll have to make sure our popcorn supply is ample before the convention starts.