This year is not like others. This year feels more like 1968 than any election since, well, 1968. I predict a very troubled summer, disruptions at the conventions, and many surprises yet to come.
On the Republican side, there’s a real sense of panic like I’ve never seen before. I’ve heard numerous movers and shakers in the movement say that they will vote for Hillary before they would vote for Trump. That’s unprecedented. These are people who are going to be desperate for either a change at the convention, or a serious third party candidate.
Don’t be surprised if you see someone like Perry or Bloomberg rise up as a 3rd party candidate - and actually collect a very large percentage of Republican votes. Not that a 3rd party would win - it’s very hard to win when your side is fractured while the other side is unified, and I doubt that any 3rd party candidate could capture enough Republicans while still maintaining a message that might attract some Democrats - especially since the people who would need to be attracted are the serious people since the yahoos will go for Trump.
But I still think that a 3rd party candidate is highly likely if Trump steamrollers his way to the nomination, if for no other reason than to give an outlet to the people who would never vote for Trump under any condition.
I honestly think that Trump could break up the Republican party. And good riddance. It’s about time for a serious shakeup if Trump gets the nomination.