Predictit actually has Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney with a 3% chance of getting the nomination, which at this point is only possible with a brokered convention. And sure, those are obviously the biggest GOP names not in the race, being 2012’s Presidential ticket.
But who else do you think would be plausible as a compromise choice of those who didn’t run in 2016? Nikki Haley seems like another good possibility to me, she’s very popular and is often touted as a possible VP choice. Anyone else?
I keep hearing Paul Ryan’s name being floated out.
Please be Sarah Palin. Please be Sarah Palin. Please be Sarah Palin.
Paul Ryan does seem to be the go-to Republican these days when no one can figure out what to do next. So I could totally see Ryan being the compromise. Plus, he was on the big stage four years ago, so they know what to expect, and he wasn’t horrible.
Due to rule 40 enacted in 2012, a nominee must win a majority in at least 8 states to have a brokered convention. It’s unlikely that anyone other than Trump can accomplish that.
Much more likely is a “contested” convention where no candidate has a simple majority of over 50% of the delegates.
Rule 40 does not prevent a Ryan or Romney nomination except on the first ballot. After the first ballot, delegates can then place any name into nomination, provided that at least eight state delegations are on board with that nominee.
Michael Bloomberg. Barbara Bush. Mark Sanford.
Olympia Snowe. Lincoln Chafee. Susan Collins.
More seriously, remember that the establishment might have to choose between two voting blocks. Either they get Rubio, Kasich and Ted Cruz to agree. Or they can make the Donald a kingmaker, something he might want more than the Presidency.
Therefore,
Carl Icahn. Chris Christie. Vladimir Putin.
I can’t wait to read David Brooks on why Putin would make a better President than Hillary.
Yea, a “compromise” vote presumably needs to be an actual compromise. That is, between the anti-establishment delegates in the Cruz and Trump camp and the (probably much smaller number) of more mainstream delegates in the Rubio/Kasich camp. The former aren’t going to see the Speaker of the House or literally the guy that they ran last election as a compromise. The whole “brokered convention” thing seems to be becoming a fantasy scenario for a certain segment of the GOP, where Trump and Cruz supporters disappear and the nomination gets handed off to whatever the establishment candidate of their dreams is.
In the real world ,Chris Christie seems at least plausible. He’s a Trump supporter (granted, for less than a week now) and at least in tempermant kind of Trump-esque, if not in his actual politics. At the same time, he’s a sitting governor, and his actual politics aren’t so far from the GOP mainstream.
Ditto Jan Brewer, or that racist Maine Governor. Someone along those lines.
A brokered convention for the GOP this year is a guaranteed loss in the general so it doesn’t matter who their candidate would be. As a matter of fact they’d have a hard time finding a candidate to accept the nomination unless it’s the one who had the most delegates to start with.
Nikki Haley is not a possibility – she offended the GOP voter base too badly by supporting the removal of the treason rag from the state capitol grounds.
She hasn’t even offended much of the virulently racist faction of the GOP. If Hillary is the Democratic nominee there will be a lot of talk blaming the GOP establishment for not getting her to run in the first place.
Not exactly about brokered convention but an astounding comment about another alternative was made last night.
On Newshour Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report said “the Republican Party now is on the verge of absolutely splitting apart. … as they said on “Spinal Tap,” this goes to 11. OK? It is off the charts.”
She went on to say:
(emphasis mine)
Walter always seems pretty calm and reasoned in her commentary so these statements surprised me.
Imagine what the Donald will have to say about a third party Republican campaign after he promised not to run a third party campaign.
It’s a contested convention. They had brokered conventions back in the days when party power brokers could command the support of enough delegates to make a difference.
Good luck with that at Cleveland this summer, should nobody emerge from the primaries with a majority.
I can see various Presidential candidates or their representatives trying to play broker. I’m dubious about the extent to which the delegates themselves would go along. If I’m a Cruz or Rubio delegate, and the candidate puts out the word about who his supporters should vote for on the second ballot, what incentive do I have to fall in line? Most delegates are party foot soldiers who don’t aspire to being much more than that, politically. What are the carrots and/or sticks that would compel delegates to do what they’re told?
The top 3 candidates in case of a contested convention would be Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, or Rick Perry, IMO. But one thing this election has shown is that illegal immigration is the number one issue for southern conservatives, so that might eliminate Romney and Ryan, leaving Rck Perry. So he’d be my wildcard pick, but I don’t think it’s likely.
If Sanders won on the Democrat side, Michael Bloomberg would enter the race as a 3rd party candidate. But if Hillary wins, I am not sure he would run against her.
I hear that the Draft Romney movement is gaining momentum. That’s what people are saying!
Ninja’d in a supportive fashion! Great minds think alike! Twisted minds as well, it would seem.
Well, he could offer three reasons for people to vote for him: “I’m not Donald Trump” and “I’m not Hillary Clinton”.
We hear fantasies about a contested convention every election cycle. It’s not going to happen. To the extent the primary system is designed, it is designed to have the candidate determined by the voters. All the polls indicate that Trump will pretty much sweep the board tonight, except perhaps Texas. That will give him an insurmountable lead.
Only one other candidate, Cruz, has actually won a state so far. If picks up Texas, that moves him to two.
There is something far different going on this cycle. A Trump win will absolutely split the Republican party. In the unlikely case of a Trump versus Sanders election, a third party candidate from the center becomes a very real possibility.
This year is not like others. This year feels more like 1968 than any election since, well, 1968. I predict a very troubled summer, disruptions at the conventions, and many surprises yet to come.
On the Republican side, there’s a real sense of panic like I’ve never seen before. I’ve heard numerous movers and shakers in the movement say that they will vote for Hillary before they would vote for Trump. That’s unprecedented. These are people who are going to be desperate for either a change at the convention, or a serious third party candidate.
Don’t be surprised if you see someone like Perry or Bloomberg rise up as a 3rd party candidate - and actually collect a very large percentage of Republican votes. Not that a 3rd party would win - it’s very hard to win when your side is fractured while the other side is unified, and I doubt that any 3rd party candidate could capture enough Republicans while still maintaining a message that might attract some Democrats - especially since the people who would need to be attracted are the serious people since the yahoos will go for Trump.
But I still think that a 3rd party candidate is highly likely if Trump steamrollers his way to the nomination, if for no other reason than to give an outlet to the people who would never vote for Trump under any condition.
I honestly think that Trump could break up the Republican party. And good riddance. It’s about time for a serious shakeup if Trump gets the nomination.
If there’s a third party candidate from the center, then it would have to come from the Democratic party, since there don’t appear to be any major Republican centrists left.