The only candidate I can think of who could credibly create a 3rd party with crossover appeal between Democrats and Republicans is Michael Bloomberg, but he won’t run against Hillary. I believe he had already said that if Sanders and Trump won, he would seriously consider mounting a 3rd party campaign.
Whoo! The GOP hasn’t had one of those since 1976 – and that one got ugly! (You can read the story in The Invisible Bridge: The Fall of Nixon and the Rise of Reagan, by Rick Perlstein.)
I think we should have learned from the Ross Perot experience: Candidates do not create parties.
A third party won’t happen this year, at least not the kind you’re thinking, where Republicans support an alternative to Trump.
However, there WILL be a primary challenge in 2020 should Trump win the election. It’s also possible that a new party could be formed out of Republicans in the Bush/Ryan/Rubio/Kasich mold, along with Blue Dog Democrats and Olympia Snowe Republicans. Democrats are doing their best to shoo their conservatives out the door and even many of their liberals if they are “wrong” about issues like Iran, as Chuck Schumer and Bob Menendez found out. Let’s welcome them to the new party too, why not?
Cleveland police clubbing down establishment Republicans in the streets. Tea Party Republicans attempting to place Pigasus in nomination. The smell of tear gas and marijuana wafting through the convention hall. Pat Boone and Johnny Mathis performing revolutionary songs in the coffee houses.
The whole world is watching!
The Doonesbury version:
Interviewer: “And just how long does it take a man to completely renounce everything he’s always stood for?”
Schweiker: “At least 36 hours - the paperwork’s incredible!”
What are the odds that there won’t be a second ballot – that Trump will have enough committed delegates to take it all on the first?
Depends on what happens today. Rubio needs to upset Trump in a couple of states and Cruz needs 50% in Texas to win all of Texas’ delegates. Both of those events occurring, even if Trump won most of the states, would make it harder for him to ensure a majority on the first ballot. And Kasich still has a shot to deny Trump any Ohio delegates. If Rubio can just hold Florida, maybe…
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