McCluster gets return yards and can be played at the WR position in Yahoo leagues. I was just about to pick him before he was picked up. Very sneaky, high upside pick.
*Off Constantly
- (11) Maurice Jones-Drew
(Jac - RB) - (18) Roddy White
(Atl - WR) - (39) Jamaal Charles
(KC - RB) - (46) Matt Schaub
(Hou - QB) - (67) Julio Jones
(Atl - WR) - (74) C.J. Spiller
(Buf - RB) - (95) A.J. Green
(Cin - WR) - (102) Pierre Garcon
(Ind - WR) - (123) Rashad Jennings
(Jac - RB) - (130) Vernon Davis
(SF - TE) - (151) Ricky Williams
(Bal - RB) - (158) Matt Cassel
(KC - QB) - (179) James Jones
(GB - WR) - (186) Atlanta
(Atl - DEF) - (207) Mike Goodson
(Car - RB) - (214) Josh Brown
(StL - K)*
Well, looky here. It’s almost like you got drunk as the draft progressed.
Matt Schaub is a stud. Matt Cassel is a waste of space, but he’s got Dwayne Bowe so he’ll do for one or two weeks. I am a little worried about Schaub’s play the first half of last year. It was almost like he decided to stop trying once he realized the team could actually run the ball.
Jones-Drew/Charles are the second best 1-2 RB combo in the league. But CJ Spiller is a permanent scatback and could have been had 2 rounds later, Rashad Jennings is injured and Mike Goodson is the third back on an offense that won’t have enough stats for two.
Roddy White is a top three wideout, period. Julio Jones… isn’t. Not only that, but the Falcons’ second leading receiver last year was Gonzo, and #2 wideout Michael Jenkins had 500 yards. Jones will be better than Jenkins, but he’s probably not better right now. AJ Green will be really good, but he’s not going to be really good this year with a rookie QB. Your #2, then, is Pierre Garcon - who can only catch deep balls and can’t even do that reliably with Peyton Manning. If Collins has to play, James Jones might be your second best receiver for the first 1… 2… 3… or 8 weeks. That’s okay, because Jones will probably be Green Bay’s #2 by season’s end and he was a terrific value pick.
Vernon Davis in the 10th is a superb pick. He’s gone for 900-plus yards each of the last two years and there’s no reason he won’t do it again. He’s also never missed a game due to injury.
I’m giving this draft a B-, but only because it’s easier to find wide receivers on waivers than running backs.
He’d better get a ton of return yards because he totaled 300 yards from scrimmage last year.
*Spiritus Mundane
- (12) Calvin Johnson
(Det - WR) - (17) Frank Gore
(SF - RB) - (40) Ryan Mathews
(SD - RB) - (45) Mike Wallace
(Pit - WR) - (68) Jason Witten
(Dal - TE) - (73) Pierre Thomas
(NO - RB) - (96) Ben Tate
(Hou - RB) - (101) Jay Cutler
(Chi - QB) - (124) Robert Meachem
(NO - WR) - (129) Davone Bess
(Mia - WR) - (152) Ronnie Brown
(Phi - RB) - (157) Josh Freeman
(TB - QB) - (180) Taiwan Jones
(Oak - RB) - (185) Denarius Moore
(Oak - WR) - (208) Tampa Bay
(TB - DEF) - (213) Matt Bryant
(Atl - K)*
Solid.
Josh Freeman would already be a star if he played in New York. He’s on a well-blocked offense with some nice weapons in a good-weather town. For all that, he scored almost a fifth of his season points total last year in one game, so you’d better hope he gets more consistent. Especially since your backup is Jay Cutler, who might throw more picks than completions if NFC North defenders had better hands.
Gore always seems like he’s about to break down, and after 5 years it’s pretty obvious that he’s never going to be what he was in 2006. Nonetheless, he is a creditable #1 RB and an excellent value. Ryan Mathews scares me, but his numbers last year work out to 904 yards and 9.3 touchdowns over a full season, which is decent for a rookie. Plus, he’s on a phenomenal offense. Ben Tate has looked awesome in preseason, but even if Foster is/goes down, it looks like he won’t get most of the carries. Pierre Thomas will probably give up more and more carries to Ingram as the season goes on, which is kind of the opposite of what you want from your backups. You really pissed me off by taking Ronnie Brown, since he’s likely to get enough carries to be relevant even if LeSean stays healthy. Oakland has one of the best 1-2 RB tandems in the league, and an excellent rushing fullback, so I’m not sure what the point of the Taiwan Jones pick was.
Let’s face it, Megatron and Wallace are a pretty great 1-2 WR combo. Davone Bess is a serviceable #3, and Robert Meachem is always right on the cusp of becoming a stud (and might this year, having finally overtaken Devery Henderson and Lance Moore on the depth chart). Denarius Moore will either be starting soon or easily cuttable.
Jason Witten in the fifth? Well done there.
I wanted to draft both the Bucs’ defense and Matt Bryant, which means you did well to pick both. Maybe not the Bucs unless you’re planning to keep them for the full season, since they play possible juggernaut Detroit in Week 1.
B- for you. Don’t see a lot of keeper potential here but I see a very well-rounded team otherwise.
This doesn’t seem to be true. The Saints still have Henderson listed as the WR2 ahead of both and the Times-Picayune reports the same. Not particularly meaningful at this point, but there’s nothing that states that Meachem has in any way set himself apart. It’s probably going to be Colston, Henderson and Moore announcing their names on Thursday.
I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Moore missed the last two preseason games and the last two days of practice with a foot injury.
Sean Payton announced last week that Meachem would get the start in Week 1.
*** Fightin’ Quakers **
- (13) Steven Jackson
(StL - RB) - (16) Matt Forte
(Chi - RB) - (41) Stevie Johnson
(Buf - WR) - (44) Joe Flacco
(Bal - QB) - (69) DeMarco Murray
(Dal - RB) - (72) Delone Carter
(Ind - RB) - (97) Jacoby Ford
(Oak - WR) - (100) Stevan Ridley
(NE - RB) - (125) Jeremy Maclin
(Phi - WR) - (128) Brandon Pettigrew
(Det - TE) - (153) Chicago
(Chi - DEF) - (156) Andre Roberts
(Ari - WR) - (181) Chad Henne
(Mia - QB) - (184) Alex Green
(GB - RB) - (209) Mikel LeShoure
(Det - RB) - (212) Stephen Gostkowski
(NE - K)*
For a team at the back end of a 14 man draft, this team’s backs don’t suck at all.
Joe Flacco? In the fourth round? THAT sucks. He hasn’t thrown more than 25 touchdowns or 3,600 yards in a season, and produces negligible rushing yardage. He’s not a #1. That would be okay if you drafted a high-upside caddy or prolific veteran, but you drafted Chad Henne, who is neither. Oh dear.
I was ready to pull the trigger on nearly every running back you took after the first three. Damn you. The first three aren’t bad, either, although the fifth round is way too early to start drafting injury handcuffs. Mikel LeShoure is a completely wasted pick – he won’t play all year and he won’t start next year.
Maclin is a pretty good value in the 9th as a keeper, even hurt… but Johnson is a questionmark and Jacoby Ford is electrifying but not all that productive – especially now that people will see him coming.
Pettigrew is a solid TE prospect, but I have a feeling he’s going to be the odd man out in the Lions’ supposed high power offense.
Gostkowski is as good as kicker prospects come, and you waited to the last round.
C-. You did well in the first three rounds, and it all went a bit pear shaped and keeper heavy after that.
I’ll do my own draft grade here and if I catch some extra time some thoughts on the other drafts as well.
I went into this draft thinking this had to be the year to shoot for the crown. I only had one keeper, but it was a doozy - LeSean McCoy in the second round. I wouldn’t get another shot with him so I had to take advantage of his value now. With the top overall pick, I have a real shot to be competitive. So my overall strategy was to draft safe and consistent, not take any chances, and hope my projections on who will improve work out enough to bring me home a solid championship team, if an unspectacular one, one the backs of my top 2.
HungryHungryHaruspex
**1. (1) Adrian Peterson **(Min - RB)
**2. (28) LeSean McCoy ** (Phi - RB) KEEPER
I tried to get a deal worked out for the top pick before the draft and had an agreement I liked that fell through right after I made this pick. Luckily I would have taken him anyway. I think Peterson and McCoy give me the best 1-2 in the entire league by a wide margin and an even shot at winning every week so long as I start warm bodies everywhere else. Peterson fits my strategy perfectly - consistent, safe. I think my overall team would be stronger had I moved back a bit and picked up that extra fourth, but this is a fine consolation prize.
3. (29) Reggie Wayne (Ind - WR)
Not a fan at all this year, and this was the beginning of the end for me this draft. I was really fucked by draft position here. Wayne was the very last of the tier 1.5 WRs left and I absolutely needed a WR here because the drop off is so severe. But I don’t trust him this season. Sure, he fits the “consistent, safe” strategy, but I think he’s troublesome considering his QB situation. Still, everything aside, he’s a perfectly good #1 WR in a 14 team league.
• I could have gone QB, but everyone else was a significant reach at this spot (Romo having been my target who went right before me), and another RB would set me much farther behind in the WR group to risk it… and the people available weren’t good enough by comparison. Not a choice I like, but one I’m okay with.
**4. (56) Matt Ryan **(Atl - QB)
He’s the very last QB I’m okay starting, which hurts to think about in the 4th. I think Ryan is underrated in fantasy. He’s fairly consistent week to week, and he puts up good totals in aggregate. This year I think they throw even more and start to shed the “run first, run second” gameplan from years past. You don’t trade that bounty for Julio Jones to not shift your gameplan to throw more. This was confirmed all preseason.
• There was no other option here. Eli Manning was on the board, but I don’t think he changes much from last season. No other QB was good enough as a #1. I chose Ryan first because at 4/5, I won’t be keeping him next season unless he blows up in a way nobody predicts, so my next pick will have a round bonus next season as a potential keeper.
**5. (57) Daniel Thomas **(Mia - RB)
This was one of a few picks that took until the last second (sorry!). It was also where I officially forgot my draft strategy and lost control of the team. I needed a starter here. I wanted a RB flex, but there was nobody left who was a consistent starter. Everyone else was a platoon guy. Honestly, a platoon guy with some upside would have been preferable at second glance because I’m lacking a viable flex. I’ll need a Reggie Bush meltdown (possible) or injury (likely) for him to develop serious value. And that’s a possibility by late season. The tie breaker here for me, despite me not really liking Thomas much, is that his keeper potential is significant.
**6. (84) Lance Moore **(NO - WR)
**7. (85) Mike Thomas **(Jac - WR)
I needed a WR to start, and a flex, and I think I got both. Moore is an excellent #2 for 14 teams, he’s going to be on the field more than any other receiver in that explosive offense. He isn’t the downfield threat, but he’ll get the reps to be valuable as an every week start. He’s dinged up, but won’t miss any time and won’t be limited.
Mike Thomas was a really good value here at 7 (I took him at that spot as he’s younger and has more keeper upside) but now that Garrard got cut, he might not be such a value any longer. We’ll see.
8. (112) Kellen Winslow (TB - TE)
**9. (113) Bernard Scott **(Cin - RB)
Hate the Winslow pick, no idea what I was thinking. I think he outperforms his value here, but the ceiling is low. And I could have had similar value/upside later. I don’t get why I did this.
As far as Bernard Scott… a funny thing happened on the way to 2011. Everyone forgot about him. He was 2010’s Ben Tate/Rashad Jennings/handcuff du jour. And then everyone forgot. It isn’t like Cedric Benson shut people up, he was awful. And he’s in even more trouble than before. What happened to the Bernard Scott love? Did he suck last year? (Nope) I really like this pick and I think it pays dividends for me this year thought it’s a clear departure from my initial strategy and I’m going to go into the season without a third RB who will see the field each week without an injury. It’s a hunch, but I have a feeling Benson doesn’t finish the year and Scott becomes a valuable keeper next season.
**10. (140) Jordy Nelson **(GB - WR)
My weakest position was WR/Flex here. There was not one, literally not one, viable fantasy starter left by this pick so it had to be a WR. Of the guys left, Nelson has the best chance to be an every day contributor in a really good passing offense. I looked long and hard at Steve Smith (PHI) but he lacks the keeper potential (on a one year deal and I don’t think the Eagles resign him - too much uncertainty for a keeper here). Donald Driver is the guy Nelson will replace this season, so I wouldn’t take him. Had to be Nelson. He’s a safe, unspectacular pick with decent upside and he’ll be a fine rotational flex. Blah.
**11. (141) Montario Hardesty **(Cle - RB)
I think a high upside RB handcuff to an upright runner who is banged up every single week and a major injury risk is a pretty fantastic late round pick. And the guy ahead of him is on the Madden cover? Sign me up!
In all honesty, this is another desperation pick. At this point there isn’t anyone left who can make an impact this season beyond injury to starters listed ahead of them. Since I have a team here that should compete without any glaring, significant holes. I’m going all in next season now.
**12. (168) Emmanuel Sanders **(Pit - WR)
I’m surprised he lasted this long. I thought he was kept this season so I was afraid to take him. Everything I’ve heard has him as the #4 now but a lock to take over the #3 spot by midseason and be a valuable every day starter. I’m not convinced entirely because Antonio Brown has been incredible this preseason and Hines Ward is still alive. A potential every day flex starter in round 12 is about as good as you can do, but there are a lot of obstacles in the way.
**13. (169) San Diego **(SD - DEF)
I usually wait until the round before last to take a defense, but I felt like the difference was too much and too many would go before my next pick. In hindsight, thought I kept it in mind the entire draft, I picked San Diego in the wrong spot and should have swapped with Sanders. Oops! Either way, they’re a good enough defense that I won’t be forced to stream defenses (a terrible idea in a 14 team league) to stay competitive at the spot.
**14. (196) Dion Lewis **(Phi - RB)
**15. (197) Carson Palmer **(Cin - QB)
Screwed the order on these two picks too, fuck. Dion Lewis has been the best Eagle in preseason and he’ll be a sneaky keeper candidate next season at such a low cost. Ronnie Brown won’t stick two seasons, and Dion Lewis is good enough to get some real work as a Darren Sproles type as a #2. He’ll return kicks (I think) and an injury to McCoy (possible) or Ronnie Brown (likely) makes him a valuable rotational guy. A super long shot, but a gamble worth taking.
Carson Palmer was a stupid pick. The thinking is sound, but the real world won’t work out so well. The idea is that he has a non-zero chance of playing this season (he hasn’t filed retirement papers as far as I know and there’s speculation he could return week one to force Cincy’s hand) in which case he’s an incredible value as a #2 QB this late. If he doesn’t come back, he’ll return next season in a much better situation of hic choosing and offer much more value. The problem is that his return this season, while non-zero, is probably .01% and there’s no way I can hold him long enough to keep him next season. And the upside? He’d be a high end #2, which I could replace in the 13th anyway. We’ll see after week one.
**16. (224) Lawrence Tynes **(NYG - K)
Kicker.
I hated this team at the close of the draft. I still kinda do, but I think Peterson/McCoy will keep me in every game and Ryan/Wayne might be just good enough to win a few more. I’ll be in the playoffs if I can salvage anything from my WR2/Flex. For a team that has six or seven intriguing keeper options, none of which are of much use this season, that’s a pretty exciting strategy. It’s a lot like my Eagles actually - contend while retooling for the future.
But!! If any one of my top 4 guys gets hurt for any period of time, I’m done. If Peterson or McCoy go down, I’ll finish dead last. I have the worst RB depth of any team in the league and I have exactly zero viable backups to start the season. Maybe by week ten one of Thomas/Hardesty/Scott is getting enough work to start, but it’s a long shot in each case.
Overall I think an injury or two will cripple me and I’ll be competing for the top pick next season. That means a finish between 5-8, which is good for a middle grade. I’d give myself a C, but I have to dock myself for fucking up a couple pick orders late and doing such an awful job with RB3. I think I earned a C-
Last one!
*Baltimore Weirdos
- (14) Shonn Greene
(NYJ - RB) - (15) Drew Brees
(NO - QB) - (42) Cedric Benson
(Cin - RB) - (43) Anquan Boldin
(Bal - WR) - (70) Peyton Hillis
(Cle - RB) - (71) Mike Williams
(TB - WR) - (98) Miles Austin
(Dal - WR) - (99) Lee Evans
(Bal - WR) - (126) Hines Ward
(Pit - WR) - (127) Rob Gronkowski
(NE - TE) - (154) New York
(NYG - DEF) - (155) Nate Kaeding
(SD - K) - (182) Jason Campbell
(Oak - QB) - (183) Tony Gonzalez
(Atl - TE) - (210) Carnell Williams
(StL - RB) - (211) Anthony Allen*
Not bad, champ - but if it wasn’t for your rather awesome keepers it wouldn’t be good, either.
Brees is a stud, and barring injury/hurricane will surely go for 4,000 yards and 30ish touchdowns. He also doesn’t miss time, so you didn’t need to spend on a backup. Which is good, because while Campbell has major upside, in all likelihood he’ll average a touchdown a game which won’t win you anything.
I thought Shonn Greene was a reach in the first round. Yeah, there’s major potential there, but he only produced ~900 total yards and two touchdowns last year and I don’t see much changing this year. Of course, you’re going to be pretty set at running back either way with Hillis and Benson, but I would have used the pick you spent on old, drunk Hines Ward on a better #4 RB than Cadillac Williams (who might not even be the #2 in St. Louis). No idea who Anthony Allen is, but I guess it kind of makes sense to draft the Ravens’ #3 back (assuming he is) since Ricky Williams isn’t likely to stick for long.
Boldin was a reach, too. He was huge through the first three weeks of last year, and then pretty much disappeared for the rest of the season. I do think he’ll do better this year, but not enough to justify this draft position; Flacco just isn’t an accurate passer, and Boldin’s bread and butter is catching short passes in stride and running over defenders. Of course, this may not matter, because you have studs in Mike Williams and Miles Austin and surely one out of Evans and Boldin will have a big year. Like you, I’m high on Evans; I think he plays perfectly to Joe Flacco’s strength: lobbing the ball downfield.
I don’t much care for Gronkowski. Aaron Hernandez is a much better receiver, but Gronkowski gets into the Pats’ goal line packages because he’s a better blocker. In any event, touchdown production is much harder to replicate than yardage, and I doubt Gronkowski can match his scoring from last year. Gonzo’s a pretty damn good backup plan though.
The Giants’ defense is going to be pulling fans out of the stands to start at cornerback if anyone else gets hurt. Yeah, the D-line is still good, but that secondary is going to get torched this year. And you took them in the 11th round! Nate Kaeding is a good kicker, but there was no reason to take him in the 12th.
I don’t want to give this draft a high grade, but your team just doesn’t have any weaknesses. You’d be getting a D if not for the phenomenal keepers you’ve got, but as things stand I’ll give you an A minus.
And I’m spent.
Well, that didn’t last long. We’ll always have the memories of the dumbest pick I’ve ever made.
The secondary really seemed like the worst possible luck, until they lost two of three starting linebackers for the season.
WAIVER WIRE RULES
Basic idea is that once a player kicks off, he’s on waivers until Tuesday. This prevents the “first to the computer” syndrome.
To make this simpler than previous years, I set it to automatically put everyone on waivers from Sunday to Tuesday, so go nuts with the waiver claims as you please, no email needed.
Two exceptions: Thursday games will not automatically put someone on waivers, but they still are. For any claims made on Thursday-game players on Friday or Saturday, I’ll simply undo it without penalty.
For SNF and MNF game-time decisions, I’ll allow signings (and manually implement them) only for managers who will actually start the player they are signing. Waiver priority is in effect for these night-game signings.
For example, say your starting WR is a game-time decision on MNF. You don’t have to make your final decision by Sunday at 1pm. Now let’s say Monday afternoon it turns out your guy will be out. You can email me who you want to sign to start, cut to make room and sit so he can play. I’ll make the change for you, retroactively if necessary. (eg: Sign Joe Blow, cut John Doe, sit Jim Jones so Joe Blow can start.)
Ahem.
[My] reports of the Ravens defense’s demise may have been premature.
In other news, I need about 16 points out of Wes Welker and Reggie Bush in order to knock off Off Constantly, which seems like a doddle and yet somehow I’m worried.
That’s because you’ve played fantasy football before. There is no such thing as a sure thing, except maybe that one of your guys will be injured right when you need him most.
And, of course, it’s not entirely out of the question that Bush will fumble four times.
Just a reminder that the waiver wire is different this year in case anyone just blew right past it a couple posts up. Any questions or objections welcome.
(Checking the league now, looks like Munch jumped the waiver wire by signing a Saints receiver Sunday morning. I’ll revert that signing at some point before Tuesday night.)
And Ellis/New York Fanboys wins the “How the hell did that happen? Boo!” award for Week 1 by being the only team to score over 100 and lose. DrewBrees’Birthmark (Bababooey?) wins the “How the hell did that happen? Yay!” award, by being the only team to score under 90 and win (and the third lowest scoring team overall).
No real fireworks in the scoring department. Hamlet posted 140+ points thanks to Brady’s big night.
Devery Henderson has been reverted and is on waivers right now. Not sure how long waivers last, but probably only another couple hours.
I tried to extend his waivers, but the Edit Waiver Date feature only listed two players. Thinking that meant everyone was off waivers, I used the commish tools to drop a player from my team with the idea to sign and release Henderson to refresh his waiver period. Alas, everyone is still on waivers and there is no commish tool to extend Sun-Tue waivers for a single player. Oh well, it was a good thought.
Another reminder that I changed up the waiver system this year. Please review the details in post 92.
(I’ve been getting email claims for guys that already played.)